Originally Posted by OldArmy
Your forecast is entirely reasonable. As someone who supports the current system and would never support a popular vote, I'm afraid your totals may be very close. To complicate matters though, I believe in the popular vote, it will be Romney by at least 5 points. I remain hopeful but I suspect the electoral college vote will go against my guy. Too bad for him, too bad for us.
I just don't think there is any way that anything > than a 1% difference in PV equates to that big of a swing in the EC.