Originally Posted by kmarei
if the liberal media really is skewing the polls to show obama ahead
doesn't that actually hurt him?
if i am a democrat, and i hear my guy is ahead in all polls
i'll probably sit on my ass and do nothing, since i know he'll probably win anyway
on the other hand if i knew he was behind, i'd go vote to help him out
you're 100% right!
Thus my conclusion, is that they just arent aware of it. Keep in mind most of these media outlets are located in very very liberal areas. It would be bizarre to them if it was even a 1-1 ratio, let alone republican turnout being higher.
Dont get me wrong, the republican turnout vs democrat turnout wont be what it was in the midterm however, it will be significantly closer to the midterm turnout ratio than the 2008 turnout ratio. Obama vs Bush (anyone with "R" next to their name) was an easy one to see the turnout, while the midterm was also pretty easy to spot if you lived outside of NYC or the liberal media.
This will be a very close race, i think. Obama has a HUGE following especially considering the state of the economy etc. We know where his base stands and where they will always stand. Same goes for the tea party crowd... It didnt matter if Obama did a good job with the economy, those people wouldnt agree with the mechanism.
SO that leaves us with 3rd party, independents, and those who voted in 08 for not Bush and 12 for Romney/not Obama (dont see many McCain voters going the other way now).
3rd party- Obama has lost a SIGNIFICANT amount of the youth vote to the libertarian party. Im in school now and was in 08, there wasnt this kind of interest in 3rd party then as now. wars, legalization of weed, etc. all hit hard with the youth. Not to mention those that graduated during the recession (again like i did) might not be so happy with what the reality of the job market currently is, vs what was thought to be.
Independents- there will likely be a trade of some Mccain to some Obama and vice versa, however based on most internals we see the biggest share going from Obama to Romney which i think is pretty much accurate.
The real question will be the breakdown of the EC. Popular vote will go Romney and this much is very clear. The EC however is a different story that is being written as we speak.
To answer the OP i would prefer a Romney win and i think its a strong possibility however, its very hard to tell. I would say its a near tossup with edge going to Romney.
Think about it this way, if you were to just pick a channel at random without knowing anything about politics or browsed Reddit politics, equally unaware. One under those perimeters would likely see an Obama sweep. I believe thats the phenomenon going on right now, perceived information based on limited interactions create difference between reality and painted picture.
P.S. 1000 Posts!!!! haha