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Originally Posted by EnerJi
It's interesting that you bring up the 1970s. The really biting fuel efficiency regulations have not yet taken effect, so it's entirely possible that the end of this decade looks a bit like the 1970s! I certainly hope not, and that we have the technology to stay ahead of the increasing fuel-efficiency regulations. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
Consider this, however:
The F30 raised highway fuel efficiency to 34 mpg with MT (33 with AT). That's almost a 10% improvement, while managing to increase HP modestly, and was considered quite an accomplishment.
In order to meet fuel efficiency standards that are currently on the books, BMW will have to find a way of raising the 328's efficiency by approximately 10% every other year for the next 10 years. That's five separate increases of 10%.
Considering that a typical engine has to be amortized over a number of years, even if that is technically feasible, it's going to be awfully challenging to pull off.
Whatever happens we're going to see many changes in the market, from a greater focus on highly fuel efficient cars at the low-end to try and balance overall fleet fuel economy, perhaps to alliances or even a merger with another manufacturer to given them higher volume of more fuel-efficient cars, to perhaps even more restrictive volumes for less fuel-efficient models like the 335.
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It will be the focus on highly efficient cars at the lower end that will be the key IMO. Of course all cars will still need to become more efficient and I expect that a car like the 3 series which is their largest seller will need to average 35-40 mpg at least.