[sp1tfire]

Its a necessary step. You should think not only about them killing non-auto piloted cars, but changing the whole transportation industry. (For example as Scania is working on its self driving trucks, once they can dispatch 3 self driving truck which will be able to drive behind each other close enough to have almost no air resistance, the 2 trucks will save approximately 10.000 EUR a year for gas only, + no driver (no faults, sleep, work insurance, list goes on).
Also thats pretty much 1 or 2 steps less left to mass production of flying car, where the auto pilot is crucial.

but definitely for the next decade or so they won't completely much driver driven cars, until some liberals start pushing regulations that a car is dangerous unless its robot.
Either way we can't deny that portions of that auto pilots that are already put in in many cars as active safety function are effective.

[RoundelObsession]

Listen to the spin doctor at CNN.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

That's a prediction that I think you will find it difficult to get a lot of support for.

When you already have individuals at all income levels whose motivation for owning desirable vehicles includes to be seen in or to advertise social status, it is unlikely that taking away the driving component will curb the enthusiasm of this type of buyer.

Not only that, but there will always be higher end features that automakers can market toward wealthy buyers. Even if it means focusing more on luxurious appointments or higher end electronics, there is always going to be something for the customer willing to spare no expense.

Ask yourself if it is genuinely reasonable to believe that - even if non-autonomous driving were to become illegal some day - a company like Ferrari is simply going to throw in the towel and say "That's it - we're out!". Not a chance.

Okay to be clear since I improperly wrote my sentence... No one regardless of their level of wealth is going to buy an autonomous Ferrari et.al. I'd bet 99% of Exotic car buyers buy exotic cars for the driving experience and the status element comes as a distant second reason. The 1% of exotic car buyers who would simply buy the car for the status wouldn't be enough of a market for any of the Exotic automakers to invest in the development.

If non-autonomous driving is declared illegal then most all of the manufacturers will get out of the business. For autonomous vehicles to actually work and eliminate (that's the ultimate goal) crashes and fatalities there has to be uniformity in performance, which means all the cars eventually will have to be manufactured the same and run the same control algorithms, because the only way to prevent crashes is with the cars operating in a system with central control. The system will not allow for rouge operation of a vehicle. Therefore having cars with different performance levels is pointless.

[NickyC]

Absolutely, they'll kill 'em dead. Just like underground power/telephone lines, and heated streets so we'll never have to worry about snow on the roads again.

In all seriousness, how could anybody ever want a self driving car? The older I get the more I realize some people don't have souls and I understand this, but you really don't even find the slightest bit of fun/passion in driving an automobile? I really have pity for you.

[Dog Face Pony Soldier]

I'd argue the vast majority of advancements we see is autonomous vehicles are due to the DARPA Challenges; and the US military's desire to make more ground force components autonomous. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge Think about how many lives and limbs would be saved with a more autonomous supply chain.

Autonomous operation of trains and buses seems like a more realistic first step but I guess labor unions block that from implementation.

[CanadianGatorBacon]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Okay to be clear since I improperly wrote my sentence... No one regardless of their level of wealth is going to buy an autonomous Ferrari et.al. I'd bet 99% of Exotic car buyers buy exotic cars for the driving experience and the status element comes as a distant second reason. The 1% of exotic car buyers who would simply buy the car for the status wouldn't be enough of a market for any of the Exotic automakers to invest in the development.

If non-autonomous driving is declared illegal then most all of the manufacturers will get out of the business. For autonomous vehicles to actually work and eliminate (that's the ultimate goal) crashes and fatalities there has to be uniformity in performance, which means all the cars eventually will have to be manufactured the same and run the same control algorithms, because the only way to prevent crashes is with the cars operating in a system with central control. The system will not allow for rouge operation of a vehicle. Therefore having cars with different performance levels is pointless.

Those are some big assumptions. Given that you list your location in Maryland, explain to me why people commute in and out of D.C. in 5 mile an hour stop and go traffic for hours a day in their high end Porsches, sport oriented BMWs, Audis, and Mercedes, Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and Aston Martins? Must be the rush they get when the tap the gas and hear their muti-turbo or high displacement engines whisper to life, as they lazily roll the wheel to sweep around a bend pulling zero lateral Gs hardly stripping a molecule off of their ultra low-profile tires. I bet you their thinking about how glad they are that the factory engineers reduced the unsprung weight, stiffened the suspension and torsional rigidity of the frame and body using CFRP bits to keep the overall weight down and lower the center of gravity from the previous model as their coffee tilts a faction of a degree in the cup holder (a very sporting feature). They must really appreciate the smoothness of the gates between shifts from 2nd to 2nd (you know because leave in 2nd to avoid shifting out of first). Oh wait, most of these cars don't even offer manuals, because who would ever thought that people would be OK with driving an automatic performance machine, because driver control/experience/feel/fun.

Having grown up part of my life in Miami, I knew my fair share of exotic vehicle drivers. Ya, they loved to go fast (in a straight line, from stop light to stop light). Image was far more important than the actual driving experience. Most of them couldn't tell you a single technical detail about their cars, except for maybe the color code for the paint they custom ordered.

There are a ton of luxury products in the world today that make zero sense to most people, yet those with the means buy them anyway. I'd peg the chances of self-driving exotics to be an almost certainty. Also, one said self-driving cars had to be self-driving 100% of the time.

[mkoesel]

You've restated your original opinion eloquently enough (and even added some numbers). But I still sharply disagree.

Thanks for the lively discussion though.

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Okay to be clear since I improperly wrote my sentence... No one regardless of their level of wealth is going to buy an autonomous Ferrari et.al. I'd bet 99% of Exotic car buyers buy exotic cars for the driving experience and the status element comes as a distant second reason. The 1% of exotic car buyers who would simply buy the car for the status wouldn't be enough of a market for any of the Exotic automakers to invest in the development.

If non-autonomous driving is declared illegal then most all of the manufacturers will get out of the business. For autonomous vehicles to actually work and eliminate (that's the ultimate goal) crashes and fatalities there has to be uniformity in performance, which means all the cars eventually will have to be manufactured the same and run the same control algorithms, because the only way to prevent crashes is with the cars operating in a system with central control. The system will not allow for rouge operation of a vehicle. Therefore having cars with different performance levels is pointless.

[Mirko]

How would the police make money off of speeding tickets if all cars are self driven. That is a lot of lost revenue.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Mirko

How would the police make money off of speeding tickets if all cars are self driven. That is a lot of lost revenue.

The entire economic model of public transportation will change drastically.

It will likely become much cheaper to drive due to less driver liability (fewer traffic incidents), less traffic congestion, and better communications infrastructure, among other things.

It is conceivable that the reduction in government expenditure will easily compensate for the lost revenue from traffic violations and then some.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by CanadianGatorBacon

Those are some big assumptions. Given that you list your location in Maryland, explain to me why people commute in and out of D.C. in 5 mile an hour stop and go traffic for hours a day in their high end Porsches, sport oriented BMWs, Audis, and Mercedes, Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and Aston Martins? Must be the rush they get when the tap the gas and hear their muti-turbo or high displacement engines whisper to life, as they lazily roll the wheel to sweep around a bend pulling zero lateral Gs hardly stripping a molecule off of their ultra low-profile tires. I bet you their thinking about how glad they are that the factory engineers reduced the unsprung weight, stiffened the suspension and torsional rigidity of the frame and body using CFRP bits to keep the overall weight down and lower the center of gravity from the previous model as their coffee tilts a faction of a degree in the cup holder (a very sporting feature). They must really appreciate the smoothness of the gates between shifts from 2nd to 2nd (you know because leave in 2nd to avoid shifting out of first). Oh wait, most of these cars don't even offer manuals, because who would ever thought that people would be OK with driving an automatic performance machine, because driver control/experience/feel/fun.

Having grown up part of my life in Miami, I knew my fair share of exotic vehicle drivers. Ya, they loved to go fast (in a straight line, from stop light to stop light). Image was far more important than the actual driving experience. Most of them couldn't tell you a single technical detail about their cars, except for maybe the color code for the paint they custom ordered.

There are a ton of luxury products in the world today that make zero sense to most people, yet those with the means buy them anyway. I'd peg the chances of self-driving exotics to be an almost certainty. Also, one said self-driving cars had to be self-driving 100% of the time.

I did say that. To reach the ultimate goal of zero accidents and zero fatalities, all vehicles must be centrally controlled, which makes high performance pointless.

[Three Pedal Steve]

In this month's R & T magazine, Bob Lutz has a column devoted to autonomous cars. It is a visionary piece. Scary.

[martin mustang]

I think it will kill or contribute to worsening drivers health let along M cars, everyone with auto driving cars turning fat and with Alzheimer kicking earlier in life.
Seriously this makes me wonder how spot on about the future the folks behind Wall E and the big fat folks on fling chairs.

[1MOREMOD]

The govt wants complacent slobs.

[Bad Robot]

Originally Posted by Sassicaia

Id own a self driving car as a second car IF you were allowed to drink in the car while it was driving itself. Would be the perfect night out mobile. I wouldnt have to wait for cabs, or sit in their filth back seats. A self driving luxury sedan.

Best would be if it could drop you off at the restaurant then find itself a parking spot.

Maybe you should consider a horse.

[AIRPOWER]

I think Demolition man in 1993 had it right

[Three Pedal Steve]

To answer the OP question-

I think as the autonomous trend grows; the enthusiasts will demand more cars like an "M".

[Bad Robot]

Originally Posted by Three Pedal Steve

To answer the OP question-

I think as the autonomous trend grows; the enthusiasts will demand more cars like an "M".

I hope you're right but I don't see how that scales out. Performance cars will eventually become the province of wealthy hobbyists, and enjoying them will take place at the car-enthusiast private tracks and competitions.

Somebody earlier in the thread mentioned a horse metaphor. Used to be everybody had 'em, some were better than others. Then progress happened. And horses become the province of the wealthy, who enjoy them in private parks and competitions.

The rest of us will be slapping together Mad Max mashups of '62 Caddies mounted on monster truck chassis, beating each other to death for gas and water out in the desert. Wait, that sounds familiar.

There's a lot of evidence out there regarding young adults who don't aspire to own cars or even drive, nanny-state enforcement (meaning: redlight cameras) of inane traffic laws, elimination of privacy, and a growing 'do it for me' mentality.

Plus, there's the insurance issue. Law enforcement authorities at this very moment have the capability to track your car without your knowledge. So let's say you uncork your car every now and then. How surprised will you be when you get a notice from the local constabulary that says, 'Greetings. Our tracker clocked your car at 65 mph in a 55 mph zone. Enclosed please find a ticket in the amount of $200."

My insurance policy contains a clause that says the car may not be covered by the insurance company if a claim is made due to damage incurred in the commission of a crime. So if I'm driving 55 in a 45, and I hit a tree, they could argue that I was committing a crime when I hit the tree, therefore the car isn't covered.

I really think we're at the beginning of a long, slow slide towards the end of the performance car... maybe 30 years or so?

[zeevette]

Thanks, Google, for that little driverless car vs. bus today.

[CIWS]

If / when it happens, it will be time for the Red Barchetta

[WHL102]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Okay to be clear since I improperly wrote my sentence... No one regardless of their level of wealth is going to buy an autonomous Ferrari et.al. I'd bet 99% of Exotic car buyers buy exotic cars for the driving experience and the status element comes as a distant second reason. The 1% of exotic car buyers who would simply buy the car for the status wouldn't be enough of a market for any of the Exotic automakers to invest in the development.

If non-autonomous driving is declared illegal then most all of the manufacturers will get out of the business.

Those are some fancy numbers and bold predictions you're throwing around there. Let me play devil's advocate here.

Just like the manufacturers prepared and adjusted their product pipeline for tightening emissions/fuel standards and urbanization, they are also preparing for automation. It would be safe to assume success, even survival, is a matter of which industry drives the first breakthrough in autonomous vehicles and which manufacturer is best poised to take advantage of that surge.


99% of people who buy.... Okay.

[ShaunPatrick220]

Sergio Marchionne is my spirit animal:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/01/luxu...ategory=luxury

Honestly there is a huge part of the economy that hinges on those who enjoy driving, modifying, and racing. From makers of performance cars like Ferrari and Lamborghini to even non-premium brands like Mazda with it's current "Driving Matters" campaigns, there's still money to be made on those who like to drive. Autonomy will become more widespread and favored in certain conditions, but it will be a long transition. I don't think anyone has to worry about track days, twisty mountain roads or off-road adventures ending overnight.

Maybe there should be a thread of instances when a self-driving car would NOT be feasible or preferred.

[EdM5]

Originally Posted by SDH

Personally I think they'll still be discussing the legal side of things regarding fully autonomous cars in 2020. Lots of talk of who's liable if one of these things crashed.

Exactly, it will probably more like 2030-2040.