[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by Nobby Clark

Changing your rules again Alex?

Yes. This thread seemed to be a pretty healthy discussion on the topic for a change, so safe to join in. Until you just popped up with some typical constructive input.

[AndyEssex330d]

Originally Posted by TodmordenLad

Dream on

This is constructive..., a very poor response from a valid viewpoint because it doesn't agree with your own.

As Alex440 said, constructive debate is fine, I like to see a differing of opinions and as we are all working and experienced in different sectors it is educational too.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by NISFAN

I?m curious about this statement.

We already trade with China and the US. How can a smoother import / export process with those countries open us up to exploitation? Genuine question.

Because Donald Trump has already said that if we're going to have free trade, it's for everything, including agriculture for example. I don't think our agricultural industry is ready to compete with theirs, that operates under different rules.

As for China, do you think our manufacturing industry will thrive with even greater competition.

There have been good reasons why the EU hasn't just jumped into trade deals with China and the US. We just arrogantly dismiss that as bureaucracy and incompetence.

I'm not exactly sure what we think we produce that will be in great demand and competitive once we've shipped it thousands of miles. Maybe high tech goods will thrive, but probably at the expense of lower value goods where Chinese product replaces UK produced goods.

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe others are. But all we have now is hope and positivity and no real logical evidence to say we're suddenly going to start selling in huge amounts to the rest of the world.

[GEP77]

I voted Remain back then and knowing what I know now I would vote remain again.

However I completely recognise that we are leaving and must now get the best deal possible. It's sad to see how much bickering there is, not just between the EU and the UK but particularly within the British Government. It's also very sad to see the constant bleating on about trade without first sorting out the human cost of Brexit.

The industry I work in (Aviation) is entirely enveloped around EU legislation and all trading rights are determined by EU to other country agreements. Every single one of these will potentially be null and void when we leave. Philip Hammond has just openly admitted that in the event of a no-deal scenario all flights to Europe may cease! Not being melodramatic but that could mean the rest of the world as well. And this is just a small aspect of EU legislation and trade agreements affecting our lives. I can't imagine how complex it will be for everyone else.

While I desperately hope that a sensible agreement is reached I can see it being quite painful for a lot of people.

On the other hand if you happen to be in corporate law then lucky you!

[Bibbles]

Originally Posted by Lobb

Does anyone on this forum have an iPhone?

Given the UK has no 'trade deal' with the US, can you please advise how you managed to get hold of one?

I believe phones already have an import tariff of 0% from outside so a free trade deal with the US wouldn't change that. Maybe try their hormone and chemical stuffed meat as an example instead which is currently banned.

[JustChris]

I voted to remain back in the day, would still do so now.

The costs of exit are going to be crazy. Even before the economy recovers from the banking crisis the cuts in public spending are going to be mind boggling.

Really does have me worried for my kids futures. At 13 and 11 the world of work approaches fast for them.

*sigh

[NISFAN]

Originally Posted by Alex440

Because Donald Trump has already said that if we're going to have free trade, it's for everything, including agriculture for example. I don't think our agricultural industry is ready to compete with theirs, that operates under different rules.

As for China, do you think our manufacturing industry will thrive with even greater competition.

There have been good reasons why the EU hasn't just jumped into trade deals with China and the US. We just arrogantly dismiss that as bureaucracy and incompetence.

I'm not exactly sure what we think we produce that will be in great demand and competitive once we've shipped it thousands of miles. Maybe high tech goods will thrive, but probably at the expense of lower value goods where Chinese product replaces UK produced goods.

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe others are. But all we have now is hope and positivity and no real logical evidence to say we're suddenly going to start selling in huge amounts to the rest of the world.

In response to your agriculture example, free trade doesn?t mean unrestricted trade. We won?t suddenly be able to buy Smith & Wesson 357 Magnums from Amazon for example, so I really don?t get what you are referring to. Something that is banned under EU can quite easily remain banned in a free trade UK. We decide.

Agricultural products....will Californian Red replace Rioja in the wine aisle? Yeah maybe, but what?s the big deal? People are free to buy what they like.

Will we be exporting tons of goods to these new trade deal countries? Well our biggest assets are not actual goods, that are burdened by duties anyway, so not much change there. I would be inclined to believe that the EU has been a negative influence overall on our manufacturing sector. Will manufacturing recover? Who knows? It?s not like it?s growing under EU is it? Or ever that EU manufacturing is growing. A high content of VW cars is Chinese made.

What I don?t get is the paranoia regarding what losing free trade to EU actually means. The difference is there is likely to be a import duty added to a product from the EU, and VAT is paid upfront at customs clearance. As well as the physical customs clearance required. Similar to buying stuff from Switzerland, Israel, Canada or hundreds of other countries today.

Swings and roundabouts. The issue with news is that it is easy to see what you could lose, but almost impossible to see what you will gain. The nett news result is a negative one.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by NISFAN

In response to your agriculture example, free trade doesn?t mean unrestricted trade. We won?t suddenly be able to buy Smith & Wesson 357 Magnums from Amazon for example, so I really don?t get what you are referring to. Something that is banned under EU can quite easily remain banned in a free trade UK. We decide.

Agricultural products....will Californian Red replace Rioja in the wine aisle? Yeah maybe, but what?s the big deal? People are free to buy what they like.

Will we be exporting tons of goods to these new trade deal countries? Well our biggest assets are not actual goods, that are burdened by duties anyway, so not much change there. I would be inclined to believe that the EU has been a negative influence overall on our manufacturing sector. Will manufacturing recover? Who knows? It?s not like it?s growing under EU is it? Or ever that EU manufacturing is growing. A high content of VW cars is Chinese made.

What I don?t get is the paranoia regarding what losing free trade to EU actually means. The difference is there is likely to be a import duty added to a product from the EU, and VAT is paid upfront at customs clearance. As well as the physical customs clearance required. Similar to buying stuff from Switzerland, Israel, Canada or hundreds of other countries today.

Swings and roundabouts. The issue with news is that it is easy to see what you could lose, but almost impossible to see what you will gain. The nett news result is a negative one.

I'm less concerned about goods coming in, they will probably survive in the main. We'll just pay more for them, which everyone seems strangely happy about. Maybe a BMW forum is the wrong place to discuss the impact of more expensive goods.

I work with a number of medium sized UK manufacturers that are all trading healthily with the EU. Without this trade they probably won't exist. They just win tenders against EU competitors, an additional tariff will be they just miss out. Land Rover, JCB's, dyson vacuums are held up as examples that will still thrive. But in a lot of cases they are market leading and demand can withstand a tariff. I work with people that make ladders, wardrobe doors, carpet underlay, mattresses. These markets are subject to greater competition and they are saying themselves that this could make them cease to exist. Maybe they are paranoid too and don't know their own market and customers.

Your post above made it sound like it's ok to sacrifice this manufacturing if there is an increase somewhere else. Again, this increase in trade is theoretical, but the companies I work with aren't "theoretical", they're real with a lot of people that I know that could be out of work.

There is a lot of talk on the theory of Brexit on here, but for me the personal impact on myself and people I know is also a factor.

[Smee]

Originally Posted by Lobb

Does anyone on this forum have an iPhone?

Given the UK has no 'trade deal' with the US, can you please advise how you managed to get hold of one?

just because you have a us product doesnt mean you have a trade deal. why do customs get involved everytime i order from the usa.

what trump is offering is free trade like we do with the Europe currently.

[Smee]

Originally Posted by Bibbles

I believe phones already have an import tariff of 0% from outside so a free trade deal with the US wouldn't change that. Maybe try their hormone and chemical stuffed meat as an example instead which is currently banned.

tried it loved it always going to america!!!

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by Alex440

I'm less concerned about goods coming in, they will probably survive in the main. We'll just pay more for them, which everyone seems strangely happy about. Maybe a BMW forum is the wrong place to discuss the impact of more expensive goods.

I work with a number of medium sized UK manufacturers that are all trading healthily with the EU. Without this trade they probably won't exist. They just win tenders against EU competitors, an additional tariff will be they just miss out. Land Rover, JCB's, dyson vacuums are held up as examples that will still thrive. But in a lot of cases they are market leading and demand can withstand a tariff. I work with people that make ladders, wardrobe doors, carpet underlay, mattresses. These markets are subject to greater competition and they are saying themselves that this could make them cease to exist. Maybe they are paranoid too and don't know their own market and customers.

Your post above made it sound like it's ok to sacrifice this manufacturing if there is an increase somewhere else. Again, this increase in trade is theoretical, but the companies I work with aren't "theoretical", they're real with a lot of people that I know that could be out of work.

There is a lot of talk on the theory of Brexit on here, but for me the personal impact on myself and people I know is also a factor.

Interested to hear you work with people who make ladders - I used to be FD at UKs biggest access equipment manufacturer (sounds grander than it was) based near Derby - now American owned I believe....

Mattress manufacturer wouldn't be near EMA would it - famed for supplying Lenny Henry, and also supply our hotels....

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

Interested to hear you work with people who make ladders - I used to be FD at UKs biggest access equipment manufacturer (sounds grander than it was) based near Derby - now American owned I believe....

Mattress manufacturer wouldn't be near EMA would it - famed for supplying Lenny Henry, and also supply our hotels....

Correct on the ladders manufacturer, wrong on the mattress manufacturer.

Been working with them for 10 years plus. Account managed it for 7 years from 2005 and then just won the distribution back, started last week. The US company also bought the biggest UK competitor based in Essex, so doing both now.

The dump, and that's being unfair to dumps, near Derby is now gone, currently being developed for housing.

Small world.....

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by Alex440

Correct on the ladders manufacturer, wrong on the mattress manufacturer.

Been working with them for 10 years plus. Account managed it for 7 years from 2005 and then just won the distribution back, started last week. The US company also bought the biggest UK competitor based in Essex, so doing both now.

The dump, and that's being unfair to dumps, near Derby is now gone, currently being developed for housing.

Small world.....

Ah, left in 2003. When I was there the distribution was more important than the product - weekly handballed delivery to 300 plus B&Q stores with 95% plus service.

Yep, the factory and warehouse was a challenge - the multi levels added a particular issue for moving stuff by fork lift.

It is indeed, networks are very important. Not had a job interview for the last 4 contract roles or this perm role, all done through personal recommendation...