[dinonz]

Originally Posted by SINasTER

335s dont come with an alarm! Its an pption that most will take off the line. My first one didnt come with the alarm option installed from factory, cost me 400$ to get it installed.

Mine did. And I didn't order it.

[dinonz]

Originally Posted by SINasTER

335s dont come with an alarm! Its an pption that most will take off the line. My first one didnt come with the alarm option installed from factory, cost me 400$ to get it installed.

Sorry - I just checked the online configurator. Standard features for a 328i - no alarm mentioned. Standard features for a 335i - "Anti-theft alarm system".

So I guess - 335s do come with an alarm!

Sorry about that

[OC40]

Originally Posted by SINasTER

335s dont come with an alarm! Its an pption that most will take off the line. My first one didnt come with the alarm option installed from factory, cost me 400$ to get it installed.

In the US, alarms are standard on 335...

[JohnVidale]

Originally Posted by Kabrich

... 13.2% of the BMW 3 Series stolen went unrecovered.

Great news, 86.8% recovery rate, but how can that be right? If they take the trouble to move the car, they can't figure anything to do but eventually leave it around to recover?

[JesseS]

Originally Posted by Kabrich

Agreed that "luxury cars" make up a small percentage of overall car theft.

However, for this report, only model years 2010-2012 cars were used. If a MY 2009 BMW Series 3 was stolen, it was not included in this report. As thus, to think that the average value of a stolen car off this list is less than $10k is a mistake, unless one believes the average value of a 2010-2012 Luxury Car on this list is less than $10k (so much for residual values!).

I didn't claim the average value from this list was under $10k, you added the "from this list" qualifier. In 2011 the average value of a stolen automobile, according to the Insurance Information Institute, was just $6,089.

Additionally, total car theft across the US dropped by 3.3% in 2011.

FWIW, every car model falls into 1 classification in Automotive News which is apparently accepted by the Industry. The classification "Luxury" used in this analysis is using Automotive News 2012 classifications for "Compact Luxury" , "Mid-Size Luxury" and "Premium Luxury" cars.

Furthermore, around 50% of the thefts (2,150) of these cars were of the "compact luxury" classification, "Mid-Size Luxury" (1,734) and "Premium Luxury" (500). Not surprisingly, the 3 cars at the top of the list (MB C, BMW 3, Infinity G) are the "compact luxury".

Okay. I'm not really sure what point you're trying to get at. Yes, BMWs are typically classified as "luxury".

13.2% of the BMW 3 Series stolen went unrecovered.

Sure, that looks bad, but just like "BMW is the #2 luxury make stolen", it's representative of a very small piece of the pie blown up. If you take any data set and examine it without respect to the larger context you get a distorted picture that doesn't represent reality. Insurance companies work off of well developed statistical models. They aren't likely to microfocus on one particular segment because it wouldn't represent their actual customer base which is composed of much more than just insurance on "luxury" autos (and doing so might well run afoul of various insurance regulatory agencies).

The truth is that BMW is one of the car makes least likely to be stolen, unlike the Honda Accord and Toyota Camry which consistently top the charts year after year.

[Kabrich]

Originally Posted by JesseS

I didn't claim the average value from this list was under $10k, you added the "from this list" qualifier. In 2011 the average value of a stolen automobile, according to the Insurance Information Institute, was just $6,089.

Additionally, total car theft across the US dropped by 3.3% in 2011.

Total averages against all cars really have nothing to do with this. From the beginning, no one ever stated that luxury car theft was most common form of auto theft.

Bottom line, conservatively, 1 out of roughly every 585 BMW 3 Series MY 2010-2012 are stolen in the USA or 1 out of roughly every 625 BMW 3 Series MY 2010-2012 are stolen in the USA if want to push the possible upper end.

Or you could say that the possibility of your MY 2010-2012 BMW 3 Series being stolen is just under 0.2%.

Those numbers go down and percentages go up if you live in the higher autotheft states stated in the study.

And those rates will go up (for 2010-2012) as time marches on as the thefts will go up and there will be no more produced with that MY.

Originally Posted by JesseS

Okay. I'm not really sure what point you're trying to get at. Yes, BMWs are typically classified as "luxury".

Not directed at you. Others had questioned the cars on the list as "luxury".

Originally Posted by JesseS

Sure, that looks bad, but just like "BMW is the #2 luxury make stolen", it's representative of a very small piece of the pie blown up. If you take any data set and examine it without respect to the larger context you get a distorted picture that doesn't represent reality. Insurance companies work off of well developed statistical models. They aren't likely to microfocus on one particular segment because it wouldn't represent their actual customer base which is composed of much more than just insurance on "luxury" autos (and doing so might well run afoul of various insurance regulatory agencies).

The truth is that BMW is one of the car makes least likely to be stolen, unlike the Honda Accord and Toyota Camry which consistently top the charts year after year.

Interesting. So according to you, Luxury vehicles would have a lower rate for comp and collision because they are stolen less - and the average value of a stolen car is only $6k. Let me know when that happens.

[Kabrich]

Originally Posted by JohnVidale

Great news, 86.8% recovery rate, but how can that be right? If they take the trouble to move the car, they can't figure anything to do but eventually leave it around to recover?

Just because something is recovered, it does not mean its is undamaged and large majority of parts could be missing. In fact, a car could be torched, but it was recovered and did not simple disappear to another Country.

[JesseS]

Originally Posted by Kabrich

Total averages against all cars really have nothing to do with this. From the beginning, no one ever stated that luxury car theft was most common form of auto theft.

They do if you're talking about insurance. And really they do just in general because statistics don't live in a vacuum. The apparent chances of having a particular model of Mercedes stolen is much higher if you artificially limit the sample size to only Mercedes -- and that's exactly what is happening here.

Bottom line, conservatively, 1 out of roughly every 585 BMW 3 Series MY 2010-2012 are stolen in the USA or 1 out of roughly every 625 BMW 3 Series MY 2010-2012 are stolen in the USA if want to push the possible upper end.

Or you could say that the possibility of your MY 2010-2012 BMW 3 Series being stolen is just under 0.2%.

That statistic is meaningless without a timeframe. Do you mean your chances of having it stolen in one year?

If so, then according to the DoJ, your chances of having ANY car stolen in a year is about 1 in 214 (0.46%), over twice that of the stat you have calculated.

Those numbers go down and percentages go up if you live in the higher autotheft states stated in the study.

And they also improve if you live in lower theft areas.

And those rates will go up (for 2010-2012) as time marches on as the thefts will go up and there will be no more produced with that MY.

Sure, and they're almost certainly worse for MY 2006-2008 because old cars are stolen more frequently than newer cars (up to a point -- right now, that's about the mid 90s).

Any time you place artificial limits on sample data you'll get statistics that present an unrealistic perspective. That's one of the core reasons why people perceive statistics as being so "malleable" and/or unreliable.

Interesting. So according to you, Luxury vehicles would have a lower rate for comp and collision because they are stolen less - and the average value of a stolen car is only $6k. Let me know when that happens.

That could quite possibly be the case if all things were equal. They are not. Factors like location and car value (for both comp and collision) are vastly more significant than differing theft rates between various car makes and models. That's an additional factor as to why you won't see any insurance changes if bmw is at the top or the bottom of the "luxury list"; it's just not a statistically significant variation.

[Kabrich]

Originally Posted by JesseS

They do if you're talking about insurance. And really they do just in general because statistics don't live in a vacuum. The apparent chances of having a particular model of Mercedes stolen is much higher if you artificially limit the sample size to only Mercedes -- and that's exactly what is happening here.

That statistic is meaningless without a timeframe. Do you mean your chances of having it stolen in one year?

If so, then according to the DoJ, your chances of having ANY car stolen in a year is about 1 in 214 (0.46%), over twice that of the stat you have calculated.

Interesting that you are doing exactly what you are accusing me of.

According to the FBI, Car theft in 2011, the latest year available show the rate at 229.6 per 100,000. Simple math 100,000 / 229.6 show that make the rate 1 in 436 - much closer to the number 585-625. Again that is 1 in 436 (2011 numbers), not 1 in 214 which comes from the great unknown.

You also failed to grasp that number is ALL CARS MODEL YEARS and you are comparing theft of ALL MY YEAR CARS to BMW 3 SERIES MY 2010-2012 only.

If ALL BMW SERIES 3 ever produced instead of a limit to MY 2010-2012 was used, the rate would be MUCH HIGHER than the 585-625 from the post, in fact, its pretty easy to see that number would beat the 1 in 436 of an average car according to FBI by a much higher margin.

And unfortunately, the preliminary numbers for 2012 (you used 3.3 for 2011) show car theft is up 1.3%. If one takes the 2011 1 in 436 and calculates a 1.3% increase in 2012, that number drops to 1 in 430 chance any car will be stolen.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr...-vehicle-theft.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr...nloadablefiles

[JesseS]

Originally Posted by Kabrich

Interesting that you are doing exactly what you are accusing me of.

How exactly am I doing that? I'm not excluding any context.

According to the FBI, Car theft in 2011, the latest year available show the rate at 229.6 per 100,000. Simple math 100,000 / 229.6 show that make the rate 1 in 436 - much closer to the number 585-625. Again that is 1 in 436 (2011 numbers), not 1 in 214 which comes from the great unknown.

Your FBI statistic is a per-capita stat, it's per 100,000 individuals, not cars. Not all individuals own cars.

The statistic I used was based on the fact that there were 220 million cars, suvs and non-commercial trucks in operation in the US during 2007 (DoT study) and 956,846 cars stolen in 2008. That's 0.44%. I had a break-down that included non-car passenger vehicles, but I'm not sure where it went now, so thus the slight discrepancy between 0.44% and 0.46%. Still, even allowing for the decrease in theft since 2007 and other potential anomalies the rate is probably between 0.35% and 0.45%.

You also failed to grasp that number is ALL CARS MODEL YEARS and you are comparing theft of ALL MY YEAR CARS to BMW 3 SERIES MY 2010-2012 only.

I'm not "comparing" anything other than to illustrate that your numbers aren't terribly useful -- You asserted some figures about percentages of bmws stolen, and I compared against those as an illustration, but I don't necessarily accept those as valid (certainly not if they are based on some sort of per-capita calculation, as above).

If ALL BMW SERIES 3 ever produced instead of a limit to MY 2010-2012 was used, the rate would be MUCH HIGHER than the 585-625 from the post, in fact, its pretty easy to see that number would beat the 1 in 436 of an average car according to FBI by a much higher margin.

Aside from the fact that your "1 in 436" statistic is fatally flawed, your "much" higher number would likely come out to around the average (0.2-0.6%) because vehicle theft rate simply doesn't vary that much based on manufacturer or model.

Again, I have no idea how you came up with this 1:585 or 1:625. I'm not saying it's necessarily wrong, but I'll not accept it blindly without some explanation of methodology.

(And of course the numbers would be higher if all MYs were examined, although MUCH HIGHER is ambiguous, not terribly useful and would need to be demonstrated.)

[Kabrich]

Originally Posted by JesseS

How exactly am I doing that? I'm not excluding any context.

Your FBI statistic is a per-capita stat, it's per 100,000 individuals, not cars. Not all individuals own cars.

The statistic I used was based on the fact that there were 220 million cars, suvs and non-commercial trucks in operation in the US during 2007 (DoT study) and 956,846 cars stolen in 2008. That's 0.44%. I had a break-down that included non-car passenger vehicles, but I'm not sure where it went now, so thus the slight discrepancy between 0.44% and 0.46%. Still, even allowing for the decrease in theft since 2007 and other potential anomalies the rate is probably between 0.35% and 0.45%.

If the FBI column is showing individuals instead of vehicles (though column is not labelled) that I agree that figure is wrong.

HOWEVER, Decrease in thefts since 2007? I am sure you have something to back that up as well, as that's not the figures I have heard, though I haven't tracked year by year since 2007 forward.

220 Million cars in USA 2007 according to DOT? Interesting as, there were an estimated 254.4 million registered passenger vehicles in the United States according to that 2007 DOT study which is a lot more than 220 million.

And I am sure you know there has been a recession for the past several years so people are keeping their vehicles longer, so that 254.4M has certainly increased in from 2007 - 2012.

And quite frankly, the FBI numbers do say Vehicle Thefts. You are excluding pickup trucks, commercial vehicles etc which lowers the total average number, which again, your figures are almost 6 years old.

Originally Posted by JesseS

I'm not "comparing" anything, because there's nothing suitable for comparison. You asserted some figures about percentages of bmws stolen, and I compared against those as an illustration, but I don't necessarily accept those as valid (certainly not if they are based on some sort of per-capita calculation, as above).

No, you added to it - the numbers were based on MY 2010-2012 and you are comparing the ALL MY VEHICLES to get your 1 in 214 which you give no link to a source and as the truth bears out, the DOT info you quoted was not on the mark either.

Originally Posted by JesseS

Aside from the fact that your "1 in 436" statistic is fatally flawed, if it actually did "beat the average car" then shouldn't the bmw be at the top of the "most stolen" list rather than near the bottom?

Again, I have no idea how you came up with this 1:585 or 1:625. I'm not saying it's necessarily wrong, but I'll not accept it blindly without some explanation of methodology.

(And of course the numbers would be higher if all MYs were examined, that fits exactly what I've been saying all along)

So the BMW Series 3 is near the bottom of the most stolen list? Perhaps you can link to your source there as well. The only "most stolen" list with BMW Series 3 I have seen is the "Most Stolen Luxury" list which it is at the top at #2, not near the bottom as you state.

There are no non-subscription databases that I could find with USA Vehicle sales per model year. However, there ARE databases of USA Vehicle sales per model (BMW 3 Series) by each month of every year.

January 2010 - December 2012 shows 294,883 BMW 3 Series sold in the USA.

Now, clearly some MY 2010 were sold in 2009 and some 2013 were sold in 2012. If we take the liberal view that these offset each other and use the

294,883 / 471 = 626:1 chance of being stolen.

If one takes the conservative approach and knows that 2009 car sales nose dived as the recession started and money was tight as people did not spend - then in Fall 2012 the economy was recovering (as witness by the Obama Election Results and Q4 BMW Series 3 Sales), odds are Fall 2009 was not equal to Fall 2012 in 2010 v 2013 MY sold. If one conservatively accounts for this and lowers the total number 294,883 down about 20,000, you come up with a conservative number of 275,000 MY 2010-2012 BMW Series 3.

275,000 / 471 = 583 : 1 chance of being stolen.

294,883 / 471 = 0.16% chance of your 2010-2012 MY BMW Series 3 stolen in 2012.

275,000 / 471 = 0.17% chance of your 2010-2012 MY BMW Series 3 stolen in 2012.

Both rounded to a single digit 0.2%

BMW Model 3 Sales USA by Month

	2010	2011	2012	
Jan	5418	5763	6698	
Feb	6817	4872	8103	
Mar	9413	8503	9897	
Apr	8712	7452	9003	
May	9659	8117	6321	
Jun	7195	9155	6740	
Jul	8897	8640	7653	
Aug	8339	8775	6206	
Sep	8945	9289	7731	
Oct	8520	7748	9729	
Nov	8928	7568	10776	
Dec	10067	8489	10745	
Total	100910	94371	99602	294883

Poke holes in that all you want if you can come up with exact numbers per MY 2010-2012 and a link to them.

[dinonz]

Originally Posted by Kabrich

294,883 / 471 = 0.16% chance of your 2010-2012 MY BMW Series 3 stolen in 2012.

275,000 / 471 = 0.17% chance of your 2010-2012 MY BMW Series 3 stolen in 2012.

Both rounded to a single digit 0.2%

BMW Model 3 Sales USA by Month

	2010	2011	2012	
Jan	5418	5763	6698	
Feb	6817	4872	8103	
Mar	9413	8503	9897	
Apr	8712	7452	9003	
May	9659	8117	6321	
Jun	7195	9155	6740	
Jul	8897	8640	7653	
Aug	8339	8775	6206	
Sep	8945	9289	7731	
Oct	8520	7748	9729	
Nov	8928	7568	10776	
Dec	10067	8489	10745	
Total	100910	94371	99602	294883

Poke holes in that all you want if you can come up with exact numbers per MY 2010-2012 and a link to them.

BEGIN POKING HOLES

Here is the original article

Paragraph 3:

There were 4,384 luxury vehicles (for model years 2010-2012) reported stolen in the United States between 01/01/2009 and 12/31/2012

So - 471 was the number of 3 Series stolen in *FOUR* years, not 1. Your figures above presume they were stolen in 2012. So, to correct your math for you:

294,883 / 471 / 4 = 0.04% chance of your 2010-2012 MY BMW Series 3 stolen in any one year.

275,000 / 471 / 4 = 0.04% chance of your 2010-2012 MY BMW Series 3 stolen in any one year.

GAPING HOLES

[Tommy_hf]

It still is strange BMW isn't including the alarm system (class III) anymore. My car is well insured for new car value for the first 3 years. If they steal it, it's more or less a nuisance. The thing I want to prevent with an alarm system is giving thieves enough time to silently remove the entire navi pro system from the car. For the money I think the DEFA DVS90 is quite good. Now I'm just wondering if the flashing led can be routed to an OEM clown nose.