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      10-03-2017, 01:26 AM   #1
TopgearLA
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Should I buy my leased 435i or buy reserved Tesla Model 3?

Some of you will hate the thought but i may get a model 3 around the time my 435i lease is up and still considering my options.

My 435 is in amazing condition w/ 14k miles + I've heard people get good deals through dealer resell, so that makes it an attractive option. (My only regret on is that I didn't get the LED headlights when ordered.)

Now the model 3, without even driving it, I am sure it will be more comfy in city streets and fun in its own weird right. It will probably also have immense support from Tesla. I don't think it will technically be as fast or glued to the road but I don't think it will be too much of a dip- plus its a rwd electric car and that sounds very interesting. The looks of it are obviously a major con vs a 4 series inside and out but it's not quite a normal comparison- they each have very different pros.

The 4 is a hot car but it's impractical in some ways in a place like LA, the Tesla 3 is mostly practical but not as attractive and questionable interior controls. If you had to choose logically, would you buy out your own low mile 435 msport or get one of the earlier Model 3s with a tax incentive?

Would also love to hear wildcard ideas too.
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      10-03-2017, 01:39 AM   #2
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I personally can't buy one until the supply of charging stations increase by an enormous amount. Everyone will have the model 3 and charging stations would be sparse. My fiancé is getting a model 3 so I'll thankfully be able to experience it without all the drawbacks of owning one myself.

What's your commute like? If it isn't terrible the model 3 might just be a good choice if the prices are similar. I personally don't like to be the guine pig when it comes to trying a car in their first release.
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      10-03-2017, 01:47 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calvin36 View Post
I personally can't buy one until the supply of charging stations increase by an enormous amount. Everyone will have the model 3 and charging stations would be sparse. My fiancé is getting a model 3 so I'll thankfully be able to experience it without all the drawbacks of owning one myself.

What's your commute like? If it isn't terrible the model 3 might just be a good choice if the prices are similar. I personally don't like to be the guine pig when it comes to trying a car in their first release.
I barely put miles on my car which is sorta good for either car. Even going "far" for me here is like 16 miles. I guess I trust Tesla's car building enough though I will say it won't feel so special or convenient if it's like the "new" Prius and it saturates los angeles.
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      10-03-2017, 02:06 AM   #4
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I suggest you do the math. I looked at the electricity cost per kw-hr and how many kw-hr translate into how many miles. For me, the electricity cost was going to be substantially higher than the gas cost
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      10-03-2017, 02:09 AM   #5
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To carpool lane or not to carpool lane,
That is the question,
Because it's certainly not,
To have a manual transmission or not
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      10-03-2017, 02:27 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rak299 View Post
I suggest you do the math. I looked at the electricity cost per kw-hr and how many kw-hr translate into how many miles. For me, the electricity cost was going to be substantially higher than the gas cost
Im curious how? even their own supercharger costs .20 cents per kWh, so even their larger model 3 battery at 75kwh would be be under $23.57 for 310 miles according to their supercharger calculator for California. Unless you're driving a prius I am confused... unless im doing the math wrong.

Last edited by TopgearLA; 10-03-2017 at 02:33 AM.
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      10-03-2017, 02:47 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TopgearLA View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by rak299 View Post
I suggest you do the math. I looked at the electricity cost per kw-hr and how many kw-hr translate into how many miles. For me, the electricity cost was going to be substantially higher than the gas cost
Im curious how? even their own supercharger costs .20 cents per kWh, so even their larger model 3 battery at 75kwh would be be under $23.57 for 310 miles according to their supercharger calculator for California. Unless you're driving a prius I am confused... unless im doing the math wrong.
PG&E charges us baseline $.20 a kilowatt hour for the first whatever kilowatt hours and $.30 a kilowatt hour thereafter. Your calculations assume 100% efficiency. Figure 10% loss ? Also, should the math include free charging at work?

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      10-03-2017, 03:28 AM   #8
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thanks for information.
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      10-03-2017, 12:50 PM   #9
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Another thing is my housemate is getting one too. We don't have enough places to charge at home! And work I don't believe they have any charging stations. Going to be hell trying to stagger charging times.
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      10-03-2017, 01:05 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TopgearLA View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calvin36 View Post
I personally can't buy one until the supply of charging stations increase by an enormous amount. Everyone will have the model 3 and charging stations would be sparse. My fiancé is getting a model 3 so I'll thankfully be able to experience it without all the drawbacks of owning one myself.

What's your commute like? If it isn't terrible the model 3 might just be a good choice if the prices are similar. I personally don't like to be the guine pig when it comes to trying a car in their first release.
I barely put miles on my car which is sorta good for either car. Even going "far" for me here is like 16 miles. I guess I trust Tesla's car building enough though I will say it won't feel so special or convenient if it's like the "new" Prius and it saturates los angeles.
If your commute is only 16 miles then you're good for a whole week without having to worry if it's just to work and back home. Not sure how traffic would factor into your power reserve.
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      10-03-2017, 01:39 PM   #11
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My PG&E rates were higher and this was marginal power, so it was charged at the top rate.
(from my notes)
At the time, the figures I saw were 85 kw-hr for 262 miles (EPA numbers). My electricity at the marginal rate was $0.35/kw-hr. The figures I saw indicated 80% actual charger efficiency, which means you need to "buy" 107 kw-hr to charge an 85 kw-hr battery. 107 kw-hr cost about $38. Gas was about $3.00, so $38 is just under 12.7 gallons. Assuming 25 mpg, I could go about 315 miles for the cost of 262 miles on electricity.

Last edited by rak299; 10-03-2017 at 02:15 PM.
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      10-03-2017, 03:01 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rak299 View Post
My PG&E rates were higher and this was marginal power, so it was charged at the top rate.
(from my notes)
At the time, the figures I saw were 85 kw-hr for 262 miles (EPA numbers). My electricity at the marginal rate was $0.35/kw-hr. The figures I saw indicated 80% actual charger efficiency, which means you need to "buy" 107 kw-hr to charge an 85 kw-hr battery. 107 kw-hr cost about $38. Gas was about $3.00, so $38 is just under 12.7 gallons. Assuming 25 mpg, I could go about 315 miles for the cost of 262 miles on electricity.
I suppose if you had solar panels and have a power reserve, then it'll be more viable. Both in which I do not have... lol I guess I'll be paying out of my ass for my housemate and my fiancé's Model 3.
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      10-03-2017, 03:20 PM   #13
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Lots of things to discuss here; some excellent points so far!

If the Model 3 is truly a car you would like to own, think of these before you dive in: it is a first MY car and there WILL be issues without a doubt. (already are with QC) Almost ALL options are in the screen so if you want to use your windshield wipers for example, you need to navigate through the menus to get there plus at this time, there is one setting - ON or OFF. If you are comfortable with the minimalist design, this is still a great car for you.

I don't think I'm being unfair to Tesla when I say that both current models have had their share of problems. Both also have what we might gently call design "quirks" that wouldn't pass muster at a bigger automaker along with Quality Control Issues that we have all pounded GM for. (well, most of us lol) Those things haven't held back Tesla's well-heeled early adopter fans, of course. The folks that buy these Model 3's will be far less tolerant than the 100k model buyers. For this, we will just have to wait and see but I do ask this; do you want to be that guinea pig?

Already? Just caught this too: https://electrek.co/2017/09/29/tesla...ring-problems/
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      10-03-2017, 04:07 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffc83 View Post
Lots of things to discuss here; some excellent points so far!

If the Model 3 is truly a car you would like to own, think of these before you dive in: it is a first MY car and there WILL be issues without a doubt. (already are with QC) Almost ALL options are in the screen so if you want to use your windshield wipers for example, you need to navigate through the menus to get there plus at this time, there is one setting - ON or OFF. If you are comfortable with the minimalist design, this is still a great car for you.

I don't think I'm being unfair to Tesla when I say that both current models have had their share of problems. Both also have what we might gently call design "quirks" that wouldn't pass muster at a bigger automaker along with Quality Control Issues that we have all pounded GM for. (well, most of us lol) Those things haven't held back Tesla's well-heeled early adopter fans, of course. The folks that buy these Model 3's will be far less tolerant than the 100k model buyers. For this, we will just have to wait and see but I do ask this; do you want to be that guinea pig?

Already? Just caught this too: https://electrek.co/2017/09/29/tesla...ring-problems/
well said.
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      10-03-2017, 04:23 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calvin36 View Post
I suppose if you had solar panels and have a power reserve, then it'll be more viable. Both in which I do not have... lol I guess I'll be paying out of my ass for my housemate and my fiancé's Model 3.
Workers are putting a 10kW solar installation on my roof as I type. Even working flat-out in the California sun it's only projected to offset 2/3 of my electricity usage. I have no spare power to give for EV charging.

That said, PG&E does offer a EV rate of $0.12/kWh in my area. But it's not free, so the difference per year vs a 25mpg car (~$1000/12K miles) is not enough to sway me over to a EV on fuel cost alone.

Personally I think it's a bit ridiculous for people to fret over a $1K/yr fuel cost when spending $50K or more on a car.
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      10-03-2017, 05:02 PM   #16
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Wait...don't you need to reserve a Model 3 AND wait an eternity for delivery?

Also, cheapest electricity rates from 100% renewable source in Central TX today
1,000 kWh 4.1˘
500 kWh 8.2˘
2000 kWh 9.9˘
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      10-03-2017, 05:09 PM   #17
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Wait...don't you need to reserve a Model 3 AND wait an eternity for delivery?

Also, cheapest electricity rates from 100% renewable source in Central TX today
1,000 kWh 4.1˘
500 kWh 8.2˘
2000 kWh 9.9˘
They're both on the list already. Should get it early next year.
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      10-03-2017, 07:35 PM   #18
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Love the insights here and agree on most if not all the points about QC and factoring the charging. Really surprised I got this level of logic from a forum that has nothing to do with the specific car. As someone else implied, I already have a first day reserve so assuming delivery is early next year. I live by a lot of supercharges that have a flat fee of 20c for now, and the model i was most likely getting is the 50kWH rated at 220 miles so that should be cheaper in charge factors... i assume.

Its funny to me that no one here actually much cares about the mechanical, esthetic or performance differences between a 4 series and model 3. Which is sort of positive and making me think more practical and maturely.

I will admit that the tax incentives and eventual auto pilot (lol sadly just for parking in Los Angeles) are a big reason for me to consider it even with initial QC issues. I do agree that the model 3 buyers might ironically be more picky about little details and to be fair i notice gaps and misalignments on everything. (My 435 exhausts have one tip higher by 1mm and i saw it from the start.) The model 3 is a cheaper car so I know it won't be the same but I can't afford an S either as that's 20k more than the most expensive 4. I guess I am thinking of the Model 3 as a nicer RWD Prius like car to not get my hopes up too much.

If i do get a model 3, the only addition to base id get is the premium package and maybe a color. I'm still curious if anyone would keep their current cars over it or get something different all together.

Outside of buying out or buying something around 40k, I am reluctant to get another car with such a high lease payment as the 435- and that was a great deal considering its 62k msrp.
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      10-03-2017, 10:02 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TopgearLA View Post
Love the insights here and agree on most if not all the points about QC and factoring the charging. Really surprised I got this level of logic from a forum that has nothing to do with the specific car. As someone else implied, I already have a first day reserve so assuming delivery is early next year. I live by a lot of supercharges that have a flat fee of 20c for now, and the model i was most likely getting is the 50kWH rated at 220 miles so that should be cheaper in charge factors... i assume.

Its funny to me that no one here actually much cares about the mechanical, esthetic or performance differences between a 4 series and model 3. Which is sort of positive and making me think more practical and maturely.

I will admit that the tax incentives and eventual auto pilot (lol sadly just for parking in Los Angeles) are a big reason for me to consider it even with initial QC issues. I do agree that the model 3 buyers might ironically be more picky about little details and to be fair i notice gaps and misalignments on everything. (My 435 exhausts have one tip higher by 1mm and i saw it from the start.) The model 3 is a cheaper car so I know it won't be the same but I can't afford an S either as that's 20k more than the most expensive 4. I guess I am thinking of the Model 3 as a nicer RWD Prius like car to not get my hopes up too much.

If i do get a model 3, the only addition to base id get is the premium package and maybe a color. I'm still curious if anyone would keep their current cars over it or get something different all together.

Outside of buying out or buying something around 40k, I am reluctant to get another car with such a high lease payment as the 435- and that was a great deal considering its 62k msrp.
We assume you already know the 4 looks better, is better (ICE for the win!), and is probably faster.
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      10-04-2017, 08:23 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TopgearLA View Post
Some of you will hate the thought but i may get a model 3 around the time my 435i lease is up and still considering my options.

My 435 is in amazing condition w/ 14k miles + I've heard people get good deals through dealer resell, so that makes it an attractive option. (My only regret on is that I didn't get the LED headlights when ordered.)

Now the model 3, without even driving it, I am sure it will be more comfy in city streets and fun in its own weird right. It will probably also have immense support from Tesla. I don't think it will technically be as fast or glued to the road but I don't think it will be too much of a dip- plus its a rwd electric car and that sounds very interesting. The looks of it are obviously a major con vs a 4 series inside and out but it's not quite a normal comparison- they each have very different pros.

The 4 is a hot car but it's impractical in some ways in a place like LA, the Tesla 3 is mostly practical but not as attractive and questionable interior controls. If you had to choose logically, would you buy out your own low mile 435 msport or get one of the earlier Model 3s with a tax incentive?

Would also love to hear wildcard ideas too.
I expect the Model 3 to handle better than the F30. Tesla sedans handle very well.
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      10-05-2017, 11:55 AM   #21
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I'd steer very clear of the Model 3 for awhile. Unless you happen to like spending lots of hard earned money to be a Beta tester for a very young and inexperienced car company.
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      10-05-2017, 12:08 PM   #22
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Young in relative terms but I do understand your concern. I’d say I’m less worried than yourself and consider being a beta tester of sorts kinda interesting in the evolution of car technology. More so, I believe Tesla will go out of their way more so for early adopters or it will spiral into a PR nightmare like anything they may do, attempt or fail at. Trust me I’m not entirely convinced, hence this post but curious then... would you keep the current car or go elsewhere? I’d considered plug ins but there aren’t that many that I can afford or desire that’s less than me buying out my current car. The cheapest nicest avenue is for me to keep my 435 with its low miles but I will say I’ve been wanting something more comfy for a city- even having an adaptive suspension
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