The flip side of this is, the dealer still gets a "special" price on the car from BMW that is close to market price, they just cant sell it to YOU as the person leasing it for that.
So, if you turn the car in, you could definitely see the car listed on the lot for a price YOU cant buy it for, even if you turned it in, and the dealer kept it, and then put it on the lot.
Sounds weird but because of a back end "dealer chargeback to the dealer" that would happen if you (or anyone in your household) bought your car, YOU would be the only one who could not benefit from whatever the lower price BMW offers the dealer on your car is.
They basically stopped the double dipping many were doing on getting a great deal on their car, then negotiating again on lease turn in to lower the price again.
I made a post over at Bimmerfest on this with some specifics a few months ago, when I found this out (both my BMW leases expire jan 2019 so was trying to make the same decision you are). I was sent a concrete example by a friendly BMW sales manager I know. One with real numbers for on a customers car, with the customers name blacked out of course.
I will copy my post here below, and if you want to read the discussion on that thread, its in the ask a dealer section over there (I know you have accounts at both places). Just figured you might be interested.
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Copy paste of a previous post I made on another board, in july
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Consider this an "INFORM" to anyone that is (like me) contemplating buying out their existing lease in the upcoming months.
The pricing for lease buyouts has changed, pretty drastically. In the past, we advised a savvy customer to approach their lease buyout with several dealers. We all knew that dealers get a special "market based" rate, and we could negotiate to buy the car for a markup from that rate, instead of the Residual. There was a "loyalty adder" that was added to the market price when selling back to the same person, that was added to the market price.
This ment that sometimes a person could save a lot of money off their RV price by negotiating the price of their car with a friendly dealer.
As of July program changes, this process will change for someone wanting to buy their OWN car off lease.
The basic change is, instead of a person being able to work with a dealer to buy the car for "an amount" over the dealers market price, now a customer only gets a few hundred dollars off the RV of the car.
Additionally, at least from how it was explained to me, if a center is found to have sold a car to the person leasing it, or the same household, etc, for less than the "RV minus the XXX discount given to someone buying their own car", the center would be charged back the difference between the "dynamic price" (market price) and the RV + 500.
In effect, this means that a center can not currently negotiate on a lease buyout, as there is nothing there for them to negotiate, when selling back to the same person. Its the "RV minus a couple hundred to a couple thousand depending on the vehicle".
Let me give you an example I was shown.
A BMW with a RV of 28,XXX has a discount of 8XX if sold to the original person who leased it. The BMW centers "market rate" on this car was 18,XXX. What does this actually mean?
This means that, for example, if the center decided to put this car on their used car lot for 25,XXX they would make a decent profit on it... as long as they did not sell it to the person who leased it. If the person who leased it bought it, the center would be charged "the difference between the market price and the RV +500".
These numbers were given to me as an example (its not my vehicle) but its not hard to imagine a situation where a person sees their own car advertised at a price THEY can not buy it at.
One other thing. I received this information from two different sources, and I trust both completely. I was looking into buying my own upcoming lease return, and received information on these changes from people I trust completely.
Figured I would share.
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Another post I made with the specific discounts on specific models, again information direct from a BMW sales manager. Info was accurate in august, have not checked since then if there is any change but sounds like no from Kafka's post.
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In the interest of more information sharing, here is some additional (very reliable ) information I just got on this. The amount of discount that is offered from the RV differs depending on model year of car, and model of car. The note also says that the information is "reviewed updated and published periodically", and calls these "CPO Promotional discounts"
It appears that right now, MY 2015s have additional discounts on them compared to 2014 / 2016 / 2017 (please remember that this is all in relationship to LEASE BUY OUT, not any other discounts or situation).
2015 328i = 4000
2015 335i = 4000
2015 5 series (excluding M) = 5000
2015 6 Series (excluding M) = 6000
2015 7 Series = 7000
For all others (2014,2016,2017) the CPO promotional discount (discount from RV as I understand it, referencing the information from my first post):
All 1 Series (including M) = 500
All 2 Series (including M) = 700
All 3 series (including M) = 800
All 4 series (including M) = 1000
All 5 series (including M) = 1000
All 6 Series (including M) = 1200
All 7 Series = 2000
All i3 = 6000
All i8 = 2000
All X1 = 1000
All X3 = 900
All X4 = 500
All X5 = 1200
All X6 = 1200
All Z3/Z4 = 300
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Snipped from actual document attached showing verbiage of BMW center chargeback if car is sold to the original leasee for pricing different from the above discounts attached as an attachment
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Document Text1 (2).pdf