[Cos270]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

This will really start to hurt in 3-5 years when supply side resumes some sort of "normal" but people are still holding a large balance on a car that is worth well below it's then-current value. Market conditions have raised current value and people are justifying purchase on present conditions. Tomorrows equity scene will be very different.

We saw the same thing in the housing industry, buying a house in 2006 at 2006 prices, and then needing to move in 2009 only to find they had no equity. They had no choice but to take a huge loss, go bankrupt, or be foreclosed on to get out of the home. Same will happen with cars in 3-5 years when people want to move on. A lot will just stay in their cars beyond their expectations which will hurt demand for new cars. It will be a 1-2 punch to manufactures just as they regain full manufacturing capacity.

And on top of all that, this will be happening at the same time all the OEMs need people to start switching over to their new EVs so they can start recouping some of the costs from the massive investments they've made in R&D and retooling of factories. Could get really ugly in a hurry.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Cos270

And on top of all that, this will be happening at the same time all the OEMs need people to start switching over to their new EVs so they can start recouping some of the costs from the massive investments they've made in R&D and retooling of factories. Could get really ugly in a hurry.

Yep, the brand I just left (Genesis) promised to ditch internal combustion all together by 2025, and Cadillac has already adopted the same plan. Good luck with that... Both those brands have a hard time now, it won't get easier. It took Telsa about 18 years to turn in its first real profitable year.

[Alfisti]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Yep, the brand I just left (Genesis) promised to ditch internal combustion all together by 2025, and Cadillac has already adopted the same plan.

Really??? Well, that was stupid. Ditch or stop developing?

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

Really??? Well, that was stupid. Ditch or stop developing?

It's kind of confusing :

Luxury auto brand Genesis has announced its brand vision for the next 15 years, including an end to new ICE models in 2025 and plans for a 100% zero-emission lineup by 2030.

https://electrek.co/2021/09/02/genes...odels-in-2025/

It seems no "gas only" by 2025, and then exclusive "electric only" by 2030.

It seems I miss-quoted Cadillac, it's :

Cadillac is making moves to introduce a long list of all-new, all-electric vehicles in the next few years. In fact, the luxury marque will introduce so many new EVs, that half of its lineup will likely be fully electric by 2025.

They already bought out or canceled franchises for those not willing to buy into the EV infrastructure and training in their service shops to support their strategy.

Approximately 150 of the 880 Cadillac dealers in the U.S. have already taken GM's offer on closing their franchises and getting paid to do so, Automotive News (subscription req.) reports. If the numbers are correct, that means that almost one in five Cadillac dealers have decided to end their contracts with GM instead of committing to investing a reported $200,000 in upgrades to accommodate electric vehicles.
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/f...it-169347.html

[Alfisti]

So then Genesis is saying no new models after 2025 but will still peddle ICE.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

So then Genesis is saying no new models after 2025 but will still peddle ICE.

Perhaps that's what the are trying to say. Do they mean no 2026 cars that uses ICE will be sold, or that in 2026 to 2030, no new models will be released?

That or Hybrid will be put to use as many seem to think think of hybrid as not ICE.

[Alfisti]

I suspect no new models.

[syd34]

That's brave of Genesis to make this decision when its main competitors (BMW, MB, Lexus) all have a roadmap for atleast one or more generations of ICE vehicles (hybrid or not).

The aggressive timeline being conveyed by many manufacturers for electrification doesn't align with the ability of mining companies to produce the required nickel, cobalt, manganese, lithium, etc. required for battery production.

From what I read recently, Toyota, who is leading the way for solid state batteries will introduce them in hybrid vehicles first. Solid state batteries are apparently more expensive than current lithium ion batteries and since the battery pack on a hybrid is not large, the cost increase will not be significant.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by syd34

That's brave of Genesis to make this decision when its main competitors (BMW, MB, Lexus) all have a roadmap for atleast one or more generations of ICE vehicles (hybrid or not).

The aggressive timeline being conveyed by many manufacturers for electrification doesn't align with the ability of mining companies to produce the required nickel, cobalt, manganese, lithium, etc. required for battery production.

From what I read recently, Toyota, who is leading the way for solid state batteries will introduce them in hybrid vehicles first. Solid state batteries are apparently more expensive than current lithium ion batteries and since the battery pack on a hybrid is not large, the cost increase will not be significant.

I don't think the power grid is ready for it either, and I work on the grid for a living so it's not just some random opinion.

We will certainly get there, but not that fast.

I think some of this is boasting to look green, then they will relent and blame it on ignorant planet-hating buyers and build what will actually sell and be supportable. In the mean time, they have a great image to sell, and sell it they will.

[chassis]

ICE will have a long tail, this is becoming clear.

ICE can mean hybrid. It's not clear how much life is left for new ICE non-hybrid models.

I can see multiple new IC engine platforms introduced for hybrid applications. The technology will only improve, as it always does.

Imagine a hybrid with super power dense IC engine, plus super energy dense battery. The carbon gap vs BEV will decrease over time.

The BEV-only world is a very long way off, if it ever arrives.

[Theruleslawyer]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

So then Genesis is saying no new models after 2025 but will still peddle ICE.

They will halt new development. No new ice only chassis. No new engines. They will continue to sell existing models as long as it makes sense, maybe with facelifts. A lot of manufacturers are announcing plans to end new development.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Perhaps that's what the are trying to say. Do they mean no 2026 cars that uses ICE will be sold, or that in 2026 to 2030, no new models will be released?

That or Hybrid will be put to use as many seem to think think of hybrid as not ICE.

per genesis, no new ice models will be released. they will continue out the lifecycle of their ice models from 2025-2030, but as those lifecycles (3-6yrs is typical for hyundai/genesis) they will be replaced by EV models and the fleet will be full ev by 2030.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by eluded

I don't think MSRP will ever come down. You might get better deals. Lots are empty. Day of reckoning is coming !

i agree, MSRP isnt coming down. The only thing you will see once supply normals out, is more incentives/discounts to the MSRP.

companies are using the current shortages to slowly creep MSRPs up, and since supply is so low, people are buying them at the higher MSRPs.

Its a shitty time to buy a new car, and its only going to get even shittier for the next couple years, as material shortages get worse. MSRPs will continue up, while features are cut. I wish i didnt need a new truck right now

[OkieSnuffBox]

I just don't understand how people are paying these prices that the new average price is mid-40s.

The fiance and I made a $150k combined last year (which I know isn't much in this crowd), but our mortgage is $1100/month for payment/PMI/taxes/insurance and the only other debt is the $10k left on our 50k mile '18 Mazda 3. Thankfully OKC is cheap.

Even still putting a deposit down and spending $32.5k on my "yet-to-be-built-and-delivered" BRZ even made me feel a bit nervous.

[Alfisti]

I think it needs to be said that 150K is still good money, not "IDGAF" money but good money compared to many, many others. I agree with your sentiment, i don't know where folks get this much cash.

[Cos270]

Originally Posted by OkieSnuffBox

I just don't understand how people are paying these prices that the new average price is mid-40s.

The fiance and I made a $150k combined last year (which I know isn't much in this crowd), but our mortgage is $1100/month for payment/PMI/taxes/insurance and the only other debt is the $10k left on our 50k mile '18 Mazda 3. Thankfully OKC is cheap.

Even still putting a deposit down and spending $32.5k on my "yet-to-be-built-and-delivered" BRZ even made me feel a bit nervous.

Sounds like you are a part of the ever-decreasing demographic of people that are trying to live within their means haha. For the past 5 years, the biggest drivers of the economy have been those living above their means and those who can actually afford the things they're buying. And because of the actions of the former, we who are trying to be responsible are going to get hosed, along with everyone else not in "the club". Buckle up and hold on tight, it's going to get bumpy.

[chad86tsi]

Some don't realize how out of balance their financial decisions are, they are just looking at monthly payments, not debit load, ratios, and duration. 84 month loans make this easier, and don't help in the long run.

Banks are making this possible too. So long as the economy is good, they profit from this.

I'm glad I bought what I have now and can ride this out for a good long while. Long enough that I can hopefully replace the wifes DD at the next dip, whether that be 2 or even 6 years out.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by OkieSnuffBox

I just don't understand how people are paying these prices that the new average price is mid-40s.

The fiance and I made a $150k combined last year (which I know isn't much in this crowd), but our mortgage is $1100/month for payment/PMI/taxes/insurance and the only other debt is the $10k left on our 50k mile '18 Mazda 3. Thankfully OKC is cheap.

Even still putting a deposit down and spending $32.5k on my "yet-to-be-built-and-delivered" BRZ even made me feel a bit nervous.

its all about budgeting and prioritizing for some, and leveraging yourself up to the eyeballs for others.

wife and I make a decent amount more than you, but have a decent amount more mortgage, but we also dont go on extravagant vacations or anything so that money can go to cars. Our typical vacation costs ~$500 and we go a couple times a year, where i have friends that spend 5k on a vaca

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

I think it needs to be said that 150K is still good money, not "IDGAF" money but good money compared to many, many others. I agree with your sentiment, i don't know where folks get this much cash.

Just a guess most are in serious debt and part of the US record high in consumer debt, almost $16 Trillion. Fun times with ever increasing interest rates and paying off credit card debt will become more difficult. The must-have-now society is in for pain.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

think it needs to be said that 150K is still good money, not "IDGAF" money but good money compared to many, many others. I agree with your sentiment, i don't know where folks get this much cash.

They were probably kids in the 2009 recession, and thought that was caused by their old dumb parents, evil corrupt banks, yukky capitalism, and "boomers".

Not realizing they are making exactly the same mistakes.

Originally Posted by M3WC

Just a guess most are in serious debt and part of the US record high in consumer debt, almost $16 Trillion. Fun times with ever increasing interest rates and paying off credit card debt will become more difficult. The must-have-now society is in for pain.

déjà vu

[chassis]

Folks please get the data. Consumer leverage the DELQ rates are where they should be.

Separately, note the below. Rental car company purchases are adding to the fun. Just another brick in the wall.

[Humdizzle]

there is alot of debt. people are fine with just living under a pile of it. there's the general sentiment that as long as you can afford your monthly payment your fine. just baffling to me. i can't imagine giving the banks that much interest for something that is a want not a need.

in the age of social media i think people are just too invested in impressing others and being seen in a 'nice' car.