[inkiboo]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Not all, just some!

Your comment was nobody said prior to the referendum the pound would crash against the dollar and I linked an article to show at least some said it was likely to happen (and indeed was likely to happen regardless of the referendum result). Sorry if that undermines your argument that a) nobody said prior to the referendum the pound would fall and b) the fall we've seen has all been because of Brexit.....

What I meant is none of the cheerleaders of Brexit mentioned anything about the pound crashing. Of course various financial institutions make all sorts of predictions.

[ossi1]

Originally Posted by inkiboo

Can get quotes from any period of time. They generally show Brexiteers trying to revise history, the biggest lie of all being that people voted for No Deal. They did not.

You have no idea what people voted for other than leave or remain.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by inkiboo

the biggest lie of all being that people voted for No Deal. They did not.

Did you have a different ballot paper from me then? Mine only had two choices, Leave or Remain; it didn't say Leave but only if we can strike an acceptable deal with the EU, it just said Leave (and, although not the preferred option, implicit in that was the potential to Leave with no deal as far as I'm concerned).

[JD6]

Originally Posted by JNW1

The exchange rate is an interesting one. There's no disputing the fact sterling's dropped significantly since the referendum and it's probably dropped further than would otherwise have been the case because of Brexit. However, there were those who were saying it was over-valued before the referendum and would have been down in the 1.20's against the US Dollar even if Remain had won (see link below).

No way of proving that one way or the other of course but arguably most of the devaluation of sterling would have happened anyway regardless of the result of the referendum....

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/us...cast-on-brexit

At any point in time there will be forecasts that say the pound will rise, fall or (occasionally) stay the same. They generally avoid saying it will stay where it is as that doesn't encourage trading . So finding a forecast amongst the thousands which backs up a particular position is meaningless. Having worked for one of the large investment banks, they all churn this stuff out on a daily basis - quite often they will contradict what they said the week before!

There is a very strong correlation between how hard a Brexit the market expects and how weak sterling is. Even on a particular day, if something happens to make a harder Brexit more or less likely, the pound will fall or rise correspondingly. Similarly before the referendum a poll suggesting Remain getting stronger would boost sterling and vice versa.

I think you are clutching at straws here by suggesting that this would have happened to sterling anyway. I do accept though that the much longer term position of sterling, say 20 years from now is much harder to be confident how Brexit will impact that - it could go either way. But for now, there isn't much doubt about the cause of sterling's weakness. Forex markets (and most other markets) don't like uncertainty, and Brexit has introduced a great deal of that.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by inkiboo

What I meant is none of the cheerleaders of Brexit mentioned anything about the pound crashing. Of course various financial institutions make all sorts of predictions.

And nor did the cheerleaders of Remain even though the consensus view prior to the referendum was that the pound was over-valued. The reality is it was probably going to drop significantly regardless of the referendum outcome but of course Remainers were no more likely to publicise that than Brexiters....

[inkiboo]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Did you have a different ballot paper from me then? Mine only had two choices, Leave or Remain; it didn't say Leave but only if we can strike an acceptable deal with the EU, it just said Leave (and, although not the preferred option, implicit in that was the potential to Leave with no deal as far as I'm concerned).

Show me the Brexit cheerleaders who were saying no deal was the way to leave before the vote.

And you are right, it said Leave. A destination, not a way to get there. It also didn’t say when we were going to leave.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by JNW1

And nor did the cheerleaders of Remain even though the consensus view prior to the referendum was that the pound was over-valued. The reality is it was probably going to drop significantly regardless of the referendum outcome but of course Remainers were no more likely to publicise that than Brexiters....

I'm afraid that is complete nonsense. The current market value at any point in time, by definition takes into account the consensus view. The rare exception is when a market is being artificially supported by a central bank, like just before we crashed out of the ERM.

[inkiboo]

Originally Posted by JNW1

And nor did the cheerleaders of Remain even though the consensus view prior to the referendum was that the pound was over-valued. The reality is it was probably going to drop significantly regardless of the referendum outcome but of course Remainers were no more likely to publicise that than Brexiters....

Consensus view? Utter bollocks.

Look at the average dollar and Euro rates over the last 10 years. Then look when it went down massively.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Not all, just some!

Your comment was nobody said prior to the referendum the pound would crash against the dollar and I linked an article to show at least some said it was likely to happen (and indeed was likely to happen regardless of the referendum result). Sorry if that undermines your argument that a) nobody said prior to the referendum the pound would fall and b) the fall we've seen has all been because of Brexit.....

Seriously, the delusion knows no end. The pound had its biggest ever daily fall on the day after the referendum. It has never recovered.

Just a coincidence though, could have happened that day even without the referendum

[ossi1]

Originally Posted by inkiboo

And you are right, it said Leave. A destination, not a way to get there. It also didn’t say when we were going to leave.

This is bizarre. I mean this point is now being argued across every forum I know. You were quite happy to rock up to that polling booth and vote without arguing the finer points back then, so what exactly is the issue now other than the vote not going your way ?

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by JD6

At any point in time there will be forecasts that say the pound will rise, fall or (occasionally) stay the same. They generally avoid saying it will stay where it is as that doesn't encourage trading . So finding a forecast amongst the thousands which backs up a particular position is meaningless. Having worked for one of the large investment banks, they all churn this stuff out on a daily basis - quite often they will contradict what they said the week before!

There is a very strong correlation between how hard a Brexit the market expects and how weak sterling is. Even on a particular day, if something happens to make a harder Brexit more or less likely, the pound will fall or rise correspondingly. Similarly before the referendum a poll suggesting Remain getting stronger would boost sterling and vice versa.

I think you are clutching at straws here by suggesting that this would have happened to sterling anyway. I do accept though that the much longer term position of sterling, say 20 years from now is much harder to be confident how Brexit will impact that - it could go either way. But for now, there isn't much doubt about the cause of sterling's weakness. Forex markets (and most other markets) don't like uncertainty, and Brexit has introduced a great deal of that.

You make some fair points there; it's true the pound rallies on thoughts of a softer Brexit and falls on the prospect of a No Deal and I agree absolutely that the markets don't like uncertainty (and Brexit has without doubt created a lot of that!).

However, I was doing a bit of Forex trading myself at the time and can recall quite clearly that the sentiment was that the pound was over-valued in early 2016. I'll concede the view was that it would drop further in the event of a Leave vote than it would if Remain won (echoing the point you've made) but I think many saw a correction coming regardless of the referendum outcome. Therefore, I don't think it's clutching at straws to say a fall in the pound would have happened anyway - not to the extent we've seen following the Brexit vote but probably a fall nevertheless. However, as I said earlier, we'll never be able to prove it one way or another now...

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by ossi1

I give up mate. If you can't get your head around the fact someone with the backing of HM Treasury and the Government might choose to manipulate a prediction then I'll end it here.

As for 'easy deals' and 'amazing trade deals' - these weren't promised in the way you dress it up. Trade deals yes but please lets stick to the narrative.

I'm glad you're giving up.

Both sides exaggerated their predictions about what might happen after Brexit and both got them wrong.

Only one side manipulated facts that are historical. If you believe that it wasn't deliberate, then Johnson, Gove etc should never be our next Prime Minister! They didn't even understand how much our net contribution to the EU was before they told people to vote Leave. There is no good reason for that, either they deliberately lied, or they are so out of touch and stupid that they didn't know. Which would be better?

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by JD6

I'm afraid that is complete nonsense. The current market value at any point in time, by definition takes into account the consensus view. The rare exception is when a market is being artificially supported by a central bank, like just before we crashed out of the ERM.

Guilty as charged, a poor choice of words on my part! However, there was certainly sentiment the pound was over-valued prior to the referendum (the aforelinked article being just one example).

[inkiboo]

Originally Posted by ossi1

This is bizarre. I mean this point is now being argued across every forum I know. You were quite happy to rock up to that polling booth and vote without arguing the finer points back then, so what exactly is the issue now other than the vote not going your way ?

Did you really think it was like leaving a golf club?

Almost everyone said it would be complicated to leave. Did you not listen or understand?

[ossi1]

Originally Posted by inkiboo

Did you really think it was like leaving a golf club?

Almost everyone said it would be complicated to leave. Did you not listen or understand?

Nice distraction. You are up and down like a fiddlers elbow suggesting the ballot paper was something it wasn't and plucking 'easy' trade deals from google.

I don't think anyone thought it was going to be easy. How about that ?

[inkiboo]

Originally Posted by ossi1

Nice distraction. You are up and down like a fiddlers elbow suggesting the ballot paper was something it wasn't and plucking 'easy' trade deals from google.

I don't think anyone thought it was going to be easy. How about that ?

Then what point are you arguing? It said Leave or Remain, no details on how or when.

[ossi1]

Originally Posted by inkiboo

Then what point are you arguing? It said Leave or Remain, no details on how or when.

I think it was you arguing that those who voted leave weren't voting leave with no deal....look further up the thread.

I'm not arguing anything other than the result was leave.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by Goneinsixtyseconds

Seriously, the delusion knows no end. The pound had its biggest ever daily fall on the day after the referendum. It has never recovered.

Just a coincidence though, could have happened that day even without the referendum

If you take a look at the GBP/USD chart you'll see the pound had been sliding against the dollar since about mid-2014; not down every month of course but the trend was heading that way.

Yes it spiked when initially it was thought Remain had won - and then dropped when the Brexit result became known - but if you look at how it's performed over the last couple of years it's not been the dramatic slide you imply; the closing value in January 2018 was, for example, higher than that for January 2016 (which was before the referendum campaign had even got going).

Of course it's slid again recently due to the political situation and the perceived risk of no deal but it will find its right level again eventually; nothing to get too excited about IMO....

[inkiboo]

Originally Posted by ossi1

I think it was you arguing that those who voted leave weren't voting leave with no deal....look further up the thread.

I'm not arguing anything other than the result was leave.

And I stand by that. If you can show me all the main Brexit cheerleader talking about No Deal before the vote then I will buy it. Otherwise, not a chance.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Guilty as charged, a poor choice of words on my part! However, there was certainly sentiment the pound was over-valued prior to the referendum (the aforelinked article being just one example).

I would suggest that there were opinions in both directions, as there pretty much always are.

The people within banks who make public pronouncements about the future direction of markets (such as the one you linked to) tend to be low level employees (even if they are given inflated client-facing titles) there to generate news and keep the bank’s name in the media. If any of them actually knew what they were doing, they would be trading, and earning a very significant multiple of their income.

The only people whose opinions on markets matter within a bank are those who back their views with money rather than words, and the market price reflects the balance of those views. So the value at the time was a reflection of expectations at the time

[ossi1]

Originally Posted by inkiboo

And I stand by that. If you can show me all the main Brexit cheerleader talking about No Deal before the vote then I will buy it. Otherwise, not a chance.

Oh right. We are leaving with no deal now are we. I must have missed that one.

Pop back when we have and its all gone to rats etc etc

[inkiboo]

Originally Posted by ossi1

Oh right. We are leaving with no deal now are we. I must have missed that one.

Pop back when we have and its all gone to rats etc etc

I think it's best we leave this.