[MY340i]

Originally Posted by 225

In another note its times like these do show when people really do give a sh1t or not. The school our kids go to is struggling to stay open with cases etc and so asked all of the school kids get a pcr test and email the results to the school so to stop non symptomatic children going in.
Easy enough and they provided all the details of drive through, numbers to call to arrange home visits if required etc yet nearly a week later barely 25% if parents have bothered.

Really pi55es me off as yes it's a pain to do, yes a positive result would be disruptive to the family but it means the school stays open and saves peoples lives! How disruptive would home learning be again to them as we have had that as well again last week.

did the dfe not just publish contingency plans for 2022 exams... doesn't sound too hopeful

[CajunBMW]

I think you may have missed my point about the vaccine. There is nothing in the vaccine that can cause long term effects. The ball of fat that is the nanoparticles is just like our natural fat and mRNA is a hallmark of all life on this planet. So the lipid nanoparticles with mRNA in it per se can't be cause of issues. The only long term effect really could be caused by the immune response to the spike protein. Which is exactly what happens with a natural infection. So all of us that had our kids infected with a natural infection, if there are long term effects have to be much much more worried than those only vaccinated. Thus we all should truly be crossing our fingers that there are no long term effects in children.

Why is this a concern, well children do not have mature lungs until around 3 years of age, thus things that get in and mess with lungs early in life can have long term consequences. We see that with early infection of children with RSV. There are some kids that have issues for life because of this early infection. Furthermore there are links of early infection with RSV with asthma. Now not all viruses do this and this is not absolute for all kids infected with RSV since essentially all kids acquire their first RSV infection by around 2 years of life.

From a standpoint of B cells and T cells as you note they do protect long term, but there are caveats to that point as it depends on the pathogen. For example with small pox, which thank goodness was eradicated in 1979/1980, killed 30% of those infected; if you lived you were protected for life. The vaccine for small pox had the same long term protection which is why the virus was eradicated. The MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine has a similar long term protection (for most), but the DTaP (Diphtheria, Tetanus, acellular pertussis) does not ( at least not usually for life), which is why we generally revaccinate for tetanus (with TDaP (Tetanus, Diphtheria and acellular pertussis)) in theory every 10 years or so. That same point holds that we should probably revaccinate all adults for whopping cough (pertussis) who might be around newborns. We did this for the grandparents when we had kids.

Now there are other viruses that never generate long term immunity. For example RSV is an order of magnitude more dangerous for newborns than the flu and with RSV you never develop long term immunity. The same holds true for noroviruses (stomach bug or the cruise ship virus) - you can get these viruses over and over again and immunity only lasts a few months. For the coronaviruses it is not clear. I agree that the media has blown some things out of proportion. But in the end the immune system is not harmed if it is boosted. This is actually what the immune system likes to see. The more times the immune system sees something the better it gets.

Even if omicron is different and partially evades elements of the immune response there will still be protection via other aspects of the vaccine. So at present the natural immunity generated from vaccines and natural infection will continue to work. The fear of course is the evolution of virus that is completely different, which would definitely cause panic and probably break the freak out meter. None of these would be the doomsday coronavirus, it just might set back our return to normal for longer or maybe just continue this new normal of life with an endemic coronavirus.

A bad coronavirus, which we all hope we don't see, would encompass high levels of spread like delta or omicron (if that turns out to be true) with case fatality rates of SARS1 or MERS or maybe something like the 1918 pandemic flu that also targeted healthy individuals (say 20 - 40 year olds ) because of the induced dangerous cytokine storm in these otherwise health folks.

Cheers and happy Friday.

P.S. not sure why the reply button isn't quite working (can't blame a drink yet since it is morning here)!!

[TimMcC]

Bought a copy of this a couple of weeks ago. Recommend for anyone who wants to understand the Human Immune System:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Immune-Kurz...dp/1529360684/

From the excellent guy behind the Kurzgesagt YouTube channel.

[SantaEugence]

In terms of Christmas plans, I think first and foremost you need to be comfortable going between yourselves, after that if it's others you're worried about - just ask them - if they're happy and want to go then it's probably unfair for you to make the decision for them.
Also I'd say that bear in mind this is probably going to be the situation forever more, Covid is going to be there next year, the people you're concerned about won't be any more vaccinated than they are now, and there'll be a different variant doing the rounds. So at some point you're going to have to decide whether you just don't see anyone 'just in case', or accept you may have to get on with it and that the risk will be present, but extremely low.
I just can't see how we can ever be much more prepared than we are now - until we solve the crisis that is NHS capacity ie probably never sadly - and that still won't prevent anyone getting ill.

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by SantaEugence

In terms of Christmas plans, I think first and foremost you need to be comfortable going between yourselves, after that if it's others you're worried about - just ask them - if they're happy and want to go then it's probably unfair for you to make the decision for them.
Also I'd say that bear in mind this is probably going to be the situation forever more, Covid is going to be there next year, the people you're concerned about won't be any more vaccinated than they are now, and there'll be a different variant doing the rounds. So at some point you're going to have to decide whether you just don't see anyone 'just in case', or accept you may have to get on with it and that the risk will be present, but extremely low.
I just can't see how we can ever be much more prepared than we are now - until we solve the crisis that is NHS capacity ie probably never sadly - and that still won't prevent anyone getting ill.

Originally Posted by SantaEugence

In terms of Christmas plans, I think first and foremost you need to be comfortable going between yourselves, after that if it's others you're worried about - just ask them - if they're happy and want to go then it's probably unfair for you to make the decision for them.
Also I'd say that bear in mind this is probably going to be the situation forever more, Covid is going to be there next year, the people you're concerned about won't be any more vaccinated than they are now, and there'll be a different variant doing the rounds. So at some point you're going to have to decide whether you just don't see anyone 'just in case', or accept you may have to get on with it and that the risk will be present, but extremely low.
I just can't see how we can ever be much more prepared than we are now - until we solve the crisis that is NHS capacity ie probably never sadly - and that still won't prevent anyone getting ill.

I agree. I think that the holidays can be fun and safe. I agree that we won't be more vaccinated and boosted than now. The virus is definitely endemic now, even if technically we are still in the pandemic. Thus it will most likely be with us now for life as the 5th robustly circulating coronavirus

My take is simply - be careful with those most vulnerable, such as seniors, those with other underlying conditions (asthma, cancer, etc), and those that are pregnant as examples. What I mean by being careful is if they want to wear a mask during the visits make them feel comfortable doing that, if they prefer to spend more time outside or near an open window, engage those folks and share your stories and have the little ones chat with grandma and grandpa for example, but respect their desire for safety. Engagement and family time is important.

Numbers will go up again this fall and winter. We are already seeing a dramatic uptick just from our Thanksgiving holiday in late November. One of the most prevalent sites of the uptick is in nursing homes.

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by TimMcC

Bought a copy of this a couple of weeks ago. Recommend for anyone who wants to understand the Human Immune System:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Immune-Kurz...dp/1529360684/

From the excellent guy behind the Kurzgesagt YouTube channel.

Originally Posted by SantaEugence

In terms of Christmas plans, I think first and foremost you need to be comfortable going between yourselves, after that if it's others you're worried about - just ask them - if they're happy and want to go then it's probably unfair for you to make the decision for them.
Also I'd say that bear in mind this is probably going to be the situation forever more, Covid is going to be there next year, the people you're concerned about won't be any more vaccinated than they are now, and there'll be a different variant doing the rounds. So at some point you're going to have to decide whether you just don't see anyone 'just in case', or accept you may have to get on with it and that the risk will be present, but extremely low.
I just can't see how we can ever be much more prepared than we are now - until we solve the crisis that is NHS capacity ie probably never sadly - and that still won't prevent anyone getting ill.

Originally Posted by TimMcC

Bought a copy of this a couple of weeks ago. Recommend for anyone who wants to understand the Human Immune System:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Immune-Kurz...dp/1529360684/

From the excellent guy behind the Kurzgesagt YouTube channel.

Immunology is a complex and fascinating discipline to study. Sounds this book gives a good review of that critical system. It is amazing how complex the immune system really is and how weird and wild the interaction between the immune system and pathogens can be.

[RobUK]

Originally Posted by TimMcC

Bought a copy of this a couple of weeks ago. Recommend for anyone who wants to understand the Human Immune System:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Immune-Kurz...dp/1529360684/

From the excellent guy behind the Kurzgesagt YouTube channel.

That's on my Christmas list after watching their video a few months ago (their videos are excellent, very well researched and presented).

[JustChris]

Italian man tries to dodge Covid jab using fake arm https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59524527

:

[TodmordenLad]

Originally Posted by mofomat

I think it stems from a combination of things.

1) With the advent of the internet, crazy theories are now given unjustified amplification. Before the internet, all you had was to stand on a street corner and spout your nonsense about the world being flat, and 99.9% of people would laugh at you. You'd be very unlikely to meet someone who agreed with you. Today, 0.1% of 7 billion is 7 million, and they're just a click of a mouse away, ready to validate your crazy theory.

2) The media are to blame for also giving unjustified amplification to a "counter-point", in the interests of balance. If 99% of people agree one thing, you don't get two people on to discuss something where one argues one point, and the other argues the opposite. That suggests the debate is 50/50, when it's not.

3) People seem to think they're entitled to their own opinions. That's only true when the topic is subjective. Too many people confuse having their own opinions with having their own facts.

4) After spending the last five years being told by people in power that "people are sick of experts", this is the result.

All good points, and your last one can't be underestimated. Being "led" by a morally bankrupt PM, who is supported and encouraged by the right wing press, during a once in a lifetime crisis like this has had and continues to have an immeasurable negative impact.

[TodmordenLad]

Originally Posted by TodmordenLad

All good points, and your last one can't be underestimated. Being "led" by a morally bankrupt PM, who is supported and encouraged by the right wing press, during a once in a lifetime crisis like this has had and continues to have an immeasurable negative impact.

A case in point. This time last year....

[Techno 9000]

At the end of this govt, will there be another 'good luck, the cupboards bare' letter awaiting the new govt?

[DougMcL]

Originally Posted by JD6

He would still never be my choice of PM, given his involvement in the 2016 act of self-harm and his fundamental lack of honesty

This. He is a mendacious, narcissistic, untrustworthy character, who was sacked from every previous job for lying. Eddie Mair got it right, when he called him "A nasty bit of work".

Anyway, who would trust him, when he has to use a stage name to make himself sound more important, when all his friends and family simply call him Alex?

People continue to go on about other politicians having a lack of personality or charisma. Who the f**k cares about personality or charisma. I want a trustworthy safe pair of hands to run the country. Take a look at what the republic of Ireland has just done. Reintroduced table service only with minimum distances in hospitality and shut down nightclubs. That needs to happen UK-wide.

[SantaEugence]

Originally Posted by DougMcL

This. He is a mendacious, narcissistic, untrustworthy character, who was sacked from every previous job for lying. Eddie Mair got it right, when he called him "A nasty bit of work".

Anyway, who would trust him, when he has to use a stage name to make himself sound more important, when all his friends and family simply call him Alex?

People continue to go on about other politicians having a lack of personality or charisma. Who the f**k cares about personality or charisma. I want a trustworthy safe pair of hands to run the country. Take a look at what the republic of Ireland has just done. Reintroduced table service only with minimum distances in hospitality and shut down nightclubs. That needs to happen UK-wide.

No it doesn't. We've destroyed the hospitality sector enough. Let's stop ruining the country and peoples lives for the sake of a tiny minority. Sorry I know it may sound selfish etc etc but it's getting ridiculous, basically everyone who wants it is vacc'd, even more so if vulnerable, it's here to stay, let's get on with life now.

[Scoobyd]

Let's not ruin another thread with personal political opinions please.

[EastPioneer]

Originally Posted by JustChris

Italian man tries to dodge Covid jab using fake arm https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59524527

:

This is brilliant!!!

[SimonBMW1]

Just seen this thread and my opinion is lockdown is not needed. I dont know why so many people want lockdown on forums and the media seem to love them. Let businesses and people get on with their lives. We are giving booster jabs to the UK now which the scientist say stops death. So carry on. This forum seems to love talking more about lockdown then cars.
Boris can lockdown again, but good luck getting people to comply. Jabs were the promise to end lockdown.
Im double vaccinated here, so will get on with life.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by SimonBMW1

Just seen this thread and my opinion is lockdown is not needed. I dont know why so many people want lockdown on forums and the media seem to love them. Let businesses and people get on with their lives. We are giving booster jabs to the UK now which the scientist say stops death. So carry on. This forum seems to love talking more about lockdown then cars.
Boris can lockdown again, but good luck getting people to comply. Jabs were the promise to end lockdown.
Im double vaccinated here, so will get on with life.

Generally I agree with you. The only way I'd support another lockdown would be if a mutation of the virus wasn't responding to the vaccine and as a result hospitalisations and deaths were increasing significantly; however, at the moment we don't appear to be anywhere near that with Omicron - hopefully that will continue to be the case.

[Ennoch]

Originally Posted by SimonBMW1

I dont know why so many people want lockdown on forums and the media seem to love them.

Lots of people say they want it because they have no ability to judge risk for themselves other than a binary of safe/lethal, and newspapers love it because talking about a lockdown threat will get them sales. It's either that or the public wanting it don't have much of a life and therefore lockdown in no way impacts them negatively.

The problem with everything is that it's a grey line that has to balance the two sides of continuing to have a life worth living and removing all risk entirely. A case in point; I've been back climbing a fair bit recently as my local place is basically a roofed over quarry and is better ventilated than most carports. When we're climbing in the dingy corners of it which are quiet we tend not to wear masks, but we do still sanitise our hands regularly. Others wear masks all the time when not climbing but take them on and off repeatedly by the front of it rather than the straps and thus transfer any virus from the mask to their hands that they then shove on holds. Do they sanitise their hands? Nope. For that reason there are a bunch of us who also boulder in a small room they've got. When we're in there as the core group we just don't bother with the masks. Why? Well we have decided that 3hrs together in a smallish space means that if one of us have it then the prognosis isn't good for the rest of us, thin mask or not, and that actually the bigger risk of catching it probably comes from transferring it from mask to hand to hold to hand to mouth given how many times you're on and off the wall, vs route climbing. Yet others would look at us without masks on and think we were being ridiculously selfish. It's all a balance. Plenty of times we've avoided being in there because there are too many people...

I am ignoring any talk of wanting a further lockdown much as I would ignore any lockdown itself. I've taken the two vaccines willingly, and I choose my interactions carefully. Does that change much from pre-covid for me? Not massively, I don't like busy pubs/clubs, I don't like big crowds and I've always been pretty disgusted by personal hygiene one public transport and in offices anyway. Essentially I try to avoid viruses at the best of times!

[Ennoch]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Generally I agree with you. The only way I'd support another lockdown would be if a mutation of the virus wasn't responding to the vaccine and as a result hospitalisations and deaths were increasing significantly; however, at the moment we don't appear to be anywhere near that with Omicron - hopefully that will continue to be the case.

I think also that we had our bigger waves over the summer which has helped vs other European nations that seem to be getting their bigger waves now when the hospitals are at greater pressure from other winter bugs etc.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by Ennoch

I think also that we had our bigger waves over the summer which has helped vs other European nations that seem to be getting their bigger waves now when the hospitals are at greater pressure from other winter bugs etc.

We did but, although our infection rates have been quite high for several months, we haven't panicked or over-reacted because that hasn't been converting into hospitalisations and deaths (for which we can probably thank the vaccination programme). Hopefully Omicron won't change that....

[G50]

Originally Posted by JNW1

We did but, although our infection rates have been quite high for several months, we haven't panicked or over-reacted because that hasn't been converting into hospitalisations and deaths (for which we can probably thank the vaccination programme). Hopefully Omicron won't change that....

What's the benefit in continuing testing, publishing infection rates etc in a highly vaccinated population other than general data collection?

All it seems to do is promote fear that's no longer warranted, and a want in people for measures and restrictions to be put in place, which as far as I can see are purely to protect the unvaccinated.

Who are we protecting by restricting the hospitality sector? There is a small fraction of a percentage who can't have a vaccine, fair enough, but I don't think that's a big enough percentage to impose restrictions on the whole population.

We listen to CajunBMW tell us the vaccine works and is doing it's job, the data shows us that the death rate in the unvaccinated is much higher than the death rate in the vaccinated, so who are we protecting by imposing restrictions?

At some point we need to stop worrying about infection rates.

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by G50

What's the benefit in continuing testing, publishing infection rates etc in a highly vaccinated population other than general data collection?

All it seems to do is promote fear that's no longer warranted, and a want in people for measures and restrictions to be put in place, which as far as I can see are purely to protect the unvaccinated.

Who are we protecting by restricting the hospitality sector? There is a small fraction of a percentage who can't have a vaccine, fair enough, but I don't think that's a big enough percentage to impose restrictions on the whole population.

We listen to CajunBMW tell us the vaccine works and is doing it's job, the data shows us that the death rate in the unvaccinated is much higher than the death rate in the vaccinated, so who are we protecting by imposing restrictions?

At some point we need to stop worrying about infection rates.

Originally Posted by G50

What's the benefit in continuing testing, publishing infection rates etc in a highly vaccinated population other than general data collection?

All it seems to do is promote fear that's no longer warranted, and a want in people for measures and restrictions to be put in place, which as far as I can see are purely to protect the unvaccinated.

Who are we protecting by restricting the hospitality sector? There is a small fraction of a percentage who can't have a vaccine, fair enough, but I don't think that's a big enough percentage to impose restrictions on the whole population.

We listen to CajunBMW tell us the vaccine works and is doing it's job, the data shows us that the death rate in the unvaccinated is much higher than the death rate in the vaccinated, so who are we protecting by imposing restrictions?

At some point we need to stop worrying about infection rates.

The vaccines work great and I agree with you on understanding what the end point is. And especially in communicating that to the public. I think you are asking two questions.

1) What is the end point; that is, when do we get back to normal. 2) What role does public health surveillance play going forward.

When do we get back to the normal from early 2019. I don't know if that normal will return completely as I think the idea that pandemics can hit us at anytime is now real for most. There will be more (some could be worse and many many more would be mild). In the 21st century there have been 3 coronavirus, a Zika virus, a dengue virus, west Nile, swine flu and Ebola virus outbreaks and I am sure off the top of my head I am forgetting something.

That point is not suppose to be scary, but matter of fact. We have been lucky as since the 1980's and for the next 30-40 years we did not really worry about infectious agents like this and thus really forgot they exist. Then bang we learn they do exist. For much of the 20th century (and before) these were things that we had to live with and deal with on a yearly basis. People forget that roughly 300,000,000 people died of small pox in the 20th century and then that for the later half of that century there was a world wide effort to eradicate the virus.

So I suspect we will have a heightened appreciation for this CoV over at least the next few years. I guess what I am saying is there is a new normal. I don't see why that new normal can't include doing almost everything that we want to do, but with a certain flare up of the virus from time to time. I think had Omicron not popped up, we would not be saying too much right now. This variant has added more restrictions and worry. I really think had vaccinations and testing and mask wearing not become political we would be in a better place. With that stated if omicron is much to do about nothing, I hope we can all have a fantastic holiday and start doing what we all like to do in 2022, with most travel restrictions lifted and at most a vaccination status required for flights or maybe only foreign travel. I truly see no reason that can't happen if the new variant is milder or less worrisome than delta.

On the other hand if it proves more dangerous than things maybe be altered. But this new variant is not a doomsday virus and thus we should not go crazy with panic. It is most likely (until data says otherwise) just another expected variant.

For public health surveillance that is all about data collection. I'm sure in the U.K. just like here in the U.S. there are many reportable diseases and infectious agents. This was going on long before this CoV popped up and works behind the scenes to monitor important viral and bacterial levels in the community (this can include the flu, many stds, various zoonotic bacterial and viral agents, etc). I suspect this will be a bit more prevalent now and hope more appreciated. These continued tests and sample collection is also the source of the virus for sequencing that allows complete analysis of new variants and mutations of concern. This aspect of public health really needs to continue, because it is the only way to monitor what is going on. If done right it can help with flu detection, with RSV and a whole host of other known pathogens. It is also the front line for detection of the next dangerous outbreak and really can even be used (if done right) as a measure of general health of a population.