[martin10chk]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

The BoE are supposed to respond if they dont think they can keep inflation below its target level long term, but they may allow it above and below at certain times as the long term expectation is to get to 2%

You may want to read this on the various items and changes used in calculating CPI and its off shoots...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infla...dservices/2021

Also BoE are trying to predict the future. ONS can tell them what happened - usually about six months ago given the lags in collecting and checking data. The head of ONS once famously quoted as saying something like "We have enough difficulty forecasting last year without worrying about the future."

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

Is this the same as how GOV sees CO2 reduction over the past 30-years? I've just read the Gov.uk data for UK carbon footprint over the same period, and it is nothing like BJ has just stated to Parliament. Spin, it is everywhere.

I was under the impression the BoE was supposed to react if inflation exceeded a certain %. Too difficult? Micro manage the data...

Comparing Boris and politicians to the BoE is incorrect. The spin I referred to was from the press not the BoE.

Yes, the BoE work to a target, but there is no rule book that says if x do y. If only economics was so simple, especially during a global pandemic occurring in what would anyway have been the biggest economic upheaval in generations.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

Comparing Boris and politicians to the BoE is incorrect. The spin I referred to was from the press not the BoE.

Yes, the BoE work to a target, but there is no rule book that says if x do y. If only economics was so simple, especially during a global pandemic occurring in what would anyway have been the biggest economic upheaval in generations.

Possibly not the best comparison, but the financial and banking 'system' is full of spin. History teaches us that fact.

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

Possibly not the best comparison, but the financial and banking 'system' is full of spin. History teaches us that fact.

But we're not talking about that. Gangzoom made an inaccurate point about the BoE and that's who the discussion is centred on.

The Bank of England is not a bank, it's the Bank, and it's operations are completely different.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

But we're not talking about that. Gangzoom made an inaccurate point about the BoE and that's who the discussion is centred on.

The Bank of England is not a bank, it's the Bank, and it's operations are completely different.

Not really the right topic, to continue in this direction...

Originally Posted by gangzoom

Higher energy prices, higher food costs, higher fuel costs....yet the official markers for inflation fell last months and the Bank of England is busy reassuring everyone there is nothing to worry about .

Where is the issue with his post? There is criticism out there (of the BoE) in the banking sector. A lot of their (BoE) predictions have proven to be wrong.

Different they may be, but where does the buck stop?

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

Not really the right topic, to continue in this direction...



Where is the issue with his post? There is criticism out there (of the BoE) in the banking sector. A lot of their (BoE) predictions have proven to be wrong.

Different they may be, but where does the buck stop?

About the only thing you can guarantee in respect of a forecast is it will be wrong! And an economic one has so many variables it is virtually impossible....especially in a pandemic!

[MY340i]

inflation is truely sitting at 20% this year in real terms.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

About the only thing you can guarantee in respect of a forecast is it will be wrong! And an economic one has so many variables it is virtually impossible....especially in a pandemic!

Can no one in the BoE hear the alarm bells ringing, with all that's going on around us now?

I'm sure as an accountant, you are not sitting too comfortably with the financial state as it is at the moment.

[HighlandPete]

Back on topic, the apparent price hike on a halo model, is simply following the trend. M3 and M4 prices are also eye watering, from my perspective.

Latest M3 Competition test drive on AutoCar, M4 is listed as £78,425 Haven't read the spec', to see if is 'good' value.

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

Can no one in the BoE hear the alarm bells ringing, with all that's going on around us now?

I'm sure as an accountant, you are not sitting too comfortably with the financial state as it is at the moment.

I always worry with rising prices - as they tend to generate requests for higher wages which then push further higher prices. Now if that is happening all over Europe and ideally the world, not such a bad thing, it makes the debt the govt has taken on a smaller proportion of future GDP (as if all countries have inflation we shouldnt lose too much international trade / future growth).

But I think higher wages and people wanting to pursue work and careers is a good thing. Cheap imported labour was good for the consumer, pretty good for the business, but was it good for the people of this country really?

High tax and high spend govt feels more socialist than Tory though....

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by MY340i

inflation is truely sitting at 20% this year in real terms.

Can you show me the basket of goods that you are using to calculate that figure so we can compare it against that which is used in calculating CPI figures by the official stats.

You know just so we can show why you are right and they are wrong. They do publish their data....

[KRS_SN]

houses cars fuel etc all prices up.
People though are spending less saving more overall wrt holidays meals out cinema etc
Could be that people are more well off and purchasing power better due to more savings hence things aren't as bleak as they appear.

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

Back on topic, the apparent price hike on a halo model, is simply following the trend. M3 and M4 prices are also eye watering, from my perspective.

Latest M3 Competition test drive on AutoCar, M4 is listed as £78,425 Haven't read the spec', to see if is 'good' value.

I know my *** packet calculations had the M3 Comp AWD Touring at more than £80k by the time I added a bit of spec. Which is why the RS4 will be staying a good while longer!

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

Not really the right topic, to continue in this direction...

Where is the issue with his post? There is criticism out there (of the BoE) in the banking sector. A lot of their (BoE) predictions have proven to be wrong.

Different they may be, but where does the buck stop?

Well, for one, I'd like to see where a senior Bank figure said "I/we reassure you that there is no problem" or a substantially similar paraphrase of that.

Everything that I've read and understood is that the combination of Brexit and Covid made this an extremely challenging time to be a central bank policy maker.

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

Can no one in the BoE hear the alarm bells ringing, with all that's going on around us now?

I'm sure as an accountant, you are not sitting too comfortably with the financial state as it is at the moment.

Again, where are the indications that the alarm bells aren't ringing?

Think this is in your previous post, but bankers criticising the BOE, I don't think that's especially surprising. I'd be more surprised for them to be in sync. It's rather like expecting EuroNCAP, the AA, Brake, BMW, JLR, Ford, Stellantis, Tesla and Toyota to all be singing from the same hymn sheet.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

I know my *** packet calculations had the M3 Comp AWD Touring at more than £80k by the time I added a bit of spec. Which is why the RS4 will be staying a good while longer!

That's what I'm thinking, over £80k. Cars over £60k just a little while ago, would make us take a deep breath.

As I mentioned 'tongue in cheek' in another post, does make BEV prices a little more palatable in the bigger scheme of things. If we are not careful, we are too easily brainwashed into higher costs.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

Again, where are the indications that the alarm bells aren't ringing?

So lots of talking up the economy, etc., makes it all go away?

BTW, who fact checks the BoE's predictions? No idea myself, as it's not something I follow.

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

So lots of talking up the economy, etc., makes it all go away?

BTW, who fact checks the BoE's predictions? No idea myself, as it's not something I follow.

Sorry Pete, I just must be reading different articles and information. Now they're "talking up the economy" to make it all go away. These posts read like the BoE are some sort of cheerleaders for an alternative reality. I'm just not seeing that. It's not in their charter, it's not in the characters of the people appointed to the senior roles and it just makes little sense to me. Have you got any links to what you are referring to?

Also, what exactly is it that you think the BoE should be doing?

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

Also, what exactly is it that you think the BoE should be doing?

As I've said, not really following all the detail. Maybe I'm naive, but I thought the BoE was supposed to be keeping inflation to around 2%. That figure has definitely been banded about. But even BoE predict around 5%, from what I pick up in news items and from economists.

Surely interest rates are a key tool for inflation control. I appreciate they seem to have moved stance very recently, from supporting the stimulus direction of government, but surely that is in conflict with even the Budget today.

To be honest I get a bit confused with a limited understanding of monetary policies. What I do know, even BoE predictions are often wrong and the financial system can crash around them. Does make me wonder who advises whom.

It's all above my pay level.

[MrManor]

Anyway it looks boss in red!

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

As I've said, not really following all the detail. Maybe I'm naive, but I thought the BoE was supposed to be keeping inflation to around 2%. That figure has definitely been banded about. But even BoE predict around 5%, from what I pick up in news items and from economists.

Surely interest rates are a key tool for inflation control. I appreciate they seem to have moved stance very recently, from supporting the stimulus direction of government, but surely that is in conflict with even the Budget today.

To be honest I get a bit confused with a limited understanding of monetary policies. What I do know, even BoE predictions are often wrong and the financial system can crash around them. Does make me wonder who advises whom.

It's all above my pay level.

Thanks Pete, i understand.

Yes, the long term target is 2%. Originally set as 2.5% when interest rate setting was taken out of the hands of the politicians by New Labour (a wonderful move).

That doesn't necessarily mean that the right approach is an immediate rate change when the inflation rate goes off target. Especially right now, when so many extraordinary factors are at play. A rate increase has to be balanced against the risk of killing growth, which will be far more damaging, especially if the inflationary pressures are expected to be relatively transitory. In 'normal' times, a rate change would no doubt have happened, but growth and recovery is critical right now. Will be interesting to see what they do and the markets have already priced in a 1 point rise over the next year. I.e. that's what the experts believe the BoE will do.

[JustChris]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

I always worry with rising prices - as they tend to generate requests for higher wages which then push further higher prices. Now if that is happening all over Europe and ideally the world, not such a bad thing, it makes the debt the govt has taken on a smaller proportion of future GDP (as if all countries have inflation we shouldnt lose too much international trade / future growth).

But I think higher wages and people wanting to pursue work and careers is a good thing. Cheap imported labour was good for the consumer, pretty good for the business, but was it good for the people of this country really?

High tax and high spend govt feels more socialist than Tory though....

I've always believed the GvT really wants and needs inflation to pay off the banking bailouts. Same now applies tenfold with CV19!