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      09-17-2018, 11:04 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by LobB View Post
The chance of another referendum is zero. Nothing. Nil. Make the preparation you need to make for leaving the EU, but don't kid yourself that there will be a third referendum. It's not going to happen.
By the way, the market places the implied probability of a second referendum at 25 - 30%

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...-eu-referendum

If you're so sure that this is wrong stick a few hundred thousand on a No. What have you got to lose
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      09-17-2018, 11:53 AM   #46
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Quite possibly Labour in a couple of months' time given their shifting position. The Lib Dems do and the SNP are moving that way.

A lot will depend on the deal on offer. If the negotiated deal is widely disliked, the chances of a second referendum rises sharply. 500 out of 650 MPs including lots of Tories didn't want Brexit, so they would be even more reluctant to vote through a hard Brexit. Easier to hand the choice back to the people.


So your answer is only the liberals and the Scottish lunatics.

You keep getting yourself confused about what MPs think. You need to consider what their constituencies think. And it's not remain!
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      09-17-2018, 11:56 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by JD6 View Post
By the way, the market places the implied probability of a second referendum at 25 - 30%

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...-eu-referendum

If you're so sure that this is wrong stick a few hundred thousand on a No. What have you got to lose
That's a vote on the deal.
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      09-17-2018, 12:54 PM   #48
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That's a vote on the deal.
It’s a referendum on accepting the deal on offer, or Remaining
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      09-17-2018, 01:53 PM   #49
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Itís a referendum on accepting the deal on offer, or Remaining
You're confused again. Some of the lunatic fringes like Blair want a referendum on the deal. There is, and will not be, another referendum on leaving. The once in a lifetime vote was two years ago. The decision of the people was to leave the EU
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      09-17-2018, 02:00 PM   #50
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Itís a referendum on accepting the deal on offer, or Remaining
Appreciate you like the idea of another referendum but even if we had one and the vote went your way what proportion of the UK population do you think genuinely believes in the EU vision of an ever greater political union, etc?

Even in the 2016 referendum I'd venture to suggest a lot of those who voted Remain did so more because they were concerned about the potential economic impact of leaving rather being pro-EU (and I understand that completely as I was very close to being in that category myself). However, if we had another referendum - and sufficient people switched from Leave to Remain to change the result - do you think those people would be changing their minds because they'd suddenly become pro-EU or because they'd decided the economic risks of leaving weren't worth it? Very likely the latter IMO which is hardly a ringing endorsement of the EU and all it stands for; we'd be staying in because it was expedient, not because most of the UK population support the EU (they clearly don't and a further referendum which produced a Remain vote wouldn't change that in my view).

Obviously pro-EU Remainers wouldn't care about the reasons why they won just so long as they did but from an EU perspective why would you want a member of your club who clearly doesn't believe in or share your vision? Guess the answer is that member is a big net contributor to the club's budget and that's reason enough to want to keep them....
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      09-17-2018, 02:47 PM   #51
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I think we've proven beyond any reasonable doubt that asking the public questions isn't the best idea, hopefully they have learnt their lesson.

Just get on with it make the deal work, do what you've failed to do and govern.
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      09-17-2018, 03:19 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by JNW1 View Post
Appreciate you like the idea of another referendum but even if we had one and the vote went your way what proportion of the UK population do you think genuinely believes in the EU vision of an ever greater political union, etc?

Even in the 2016 referendum I'd venture to suggest a lot of those who voted Remain did so more because they were concerned about the potential economic impact of leaving rather being pro-EU (and I understand that completely as I was very close to being in that category myself). However, if we had another referendum - and sufficient people switched from Leave to Remain to change the result - do you think those people would be changing their minds because they'd suddenly become pro-EU or because they'd decided the economic risks of leaving weren't worth it? Very likely the latter IMO which is hardly a ringing endorsement of the EU and all it stands for; we'd be staying in because it was expedient, not because most of the UK population support the EU (they clearly don't and a further referendum which produced a Remain vote wouldn't change that in my view).

Obviously pro-EU Remainers wouldn't care about the reasons why they won just so long as they did but from an EU perspective why would you want a member of your club who clearly doesn't believe in or share your vision? Guess the answer is that member is a big net contributor to the club's budget and that's reason enough to want to keep them....
I completely agree. A pretty low proportion of the UK population share the EU goal of ever closer integration. Iím one of those myself. If we had been outside the EU in 2016 with a referendum on whether to join or keep the status quo, I would have opted for the latter.

I voted Remain in 2016 as I doubted that we would be able to negotiate a good exit, and leaving without that would either be a pointless gesture with no major change, or produce a major economic shock. Neither option had any appeal.

Had Europe been on the verge of collapse, that would be the point to negotiate an exit, while theyíre on the back foot. Doing it at a time like this was always destined to fail.

Voting Remain in 2016 wasnít an endorsement of Junker and friends, but choosing the least disruptive and costly option.
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      09-17-2018, 03:36 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Wills2 View Post
I think we've proven beyond any reasonable doubt that asking the public questions isn't the best idea, hopefully they have learnt their lesson.

Just get on with it make the deal work, do what you've failed to do and govern.
We've certainly proved that asking a question which has only two potential outcomes whilst planning for only one of them isn't a great strategy!

I also think a referendum on our EU membership was flawed in the first place; not enough people with sufficient facts to arrive at an informed decision and frankly I'm not sure we're in any better place now (which is one of the reasons I think another referendum is undesirable). The only thing we're in a better position to make a judgement on is the ability of our politicians to negotiate (which has proved to be lacking!).
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      09-18-2018, 06:26 AM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JD6 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by JNW1 View Post
Appreciate you like the idea of another referendum but even if we had one and the vote went your way what proportion of the UK population do you think genuinely believes in the EU vision of an ever greater political union, etc?

Even in the 2016 referendum I'd venture to suggest a lot of those who voted Remain did so more because they were concerned about the potential economic impact of leaving rather being pro-EU (and I understand that completely as I was very close to being in that category myself). However, if we had another referendum - and sufficient people switched from Leave to Remain to change the result - do you think those people would be changing their minds because they'd suddenly become pro-EU or because they'd decided the economic risks of leaving weren't worth it? Very likely the latter IMO which is hardly a ringing endorsement of the EU and all it stands for; we'd be staying in because it was expedient, not because most of the UK population support the EU (they clearly don't and a further referendum which produced a Remain vote wouldn't change that in my view).

Obviously pro-EU Remainers wouldn't care about the reasons why they won just so long as they did but from an EU perspective why would you want a member of your club who clearly doesn't believe in or share your vision? Guess the answer is that member is a big net contributor to the club's budget and that's reason enough to want to keep them....
I completely agree. A pretty low proportion of the UK population share the EU goal of ever closer integration. I’m one of those myself. If we had been outside the EU in 2016 with a referendum on whether to join or keep the status quo, I would have opted for the latter.

I voted Remain in 2016 as I doubted that we would be able to negotiate a good exit, and leaving without that would either be a pointless gesture with no major change, or produce a major economic shock. Neither option had any appeal.

Had Europe been on the verge of collapse, that would be the point to negotiate an exit, while they’re on the back foot. Doing it at a time like this was always destined to fail.

Voting Remain in 2016 wasn’t an endorsement of Junker and friends, but choosing the least disruptive and costly option.
Wow!!!!
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      09-18-2018, 11:59 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by JNW1 View Post
We've certainly proved that asking a question which has only two potential outcomes whilst planning for only one of them isn't a great strategy!

I also think a referendum on our EU membership was flawed in the first place; not enough people with sufficient facts to arrive at an informed decision and frankly I'm not sure we're in any better place now (which is one of the reasons I think another referendum is undesirable). The only thing we're in a better position to make a judgement on is the ability of our politicians to negotiate (which has proved to be lacking!).
I view the negotiations as a bit of a living thing with all the twists and turns and just like all EU negotiations it will go to the wire and then they will magically create a fudge of epic proportions that is just close enough to everyone's red lines that they can complain but not walk away.
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      09-18-2018, 12:09 PM   #56
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Everything gets less expensive during a recession. You just have to adjust your strategy based on the circumstances
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      09-18-2018, 12:33 PM   #57
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Everything gets less expensive during a recession. You just have to adjust your strategy based on the circumstances
Things do not get less expensive during a recession.

I very much doubt any European country selling in to the UK will drop its prices simply because the UK is entering recession.

Equally if you lose your job due to recession I very much doubt you will notice that prices suddenly got cheaper...
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      09-19-2018, 12:57 PM   #58
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As this has become the new unofficial Brexit thread I thought I’d post this video here, looks like a good explanation of the chequers agreement, although I’m now expert! It does make me feel better about leaving the EU, if it can be accepted that is!

Thoughts?

https://www.facebook.com/10downingst...4392835298440/
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