01-20-2022, 04:51 AM | #793 | |
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I think staying on PLAN B throughout xmas and not introducing anymore restrictions was spot on. Best decision Boris has made. Plan A is fine with me and come March live with it is fine too. Let business get their money back and continue to run without restrictions or fear of restrictions. Let people live without fear too. Party on people and enjoy life. |
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Ennoch2257.00 |
01-20-2022, 08:10 AM | #794 | |
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Yes infections and hospitalisations are up compared to when Plan B was introduced but the judgement was the higher level of infection wouldn't create sufficient serious illness to overwhelm the NHS and justify the downsides associated with further restrictions or a lockdown. Based on where we are now I'd say it looks to have been the correct call and on this occasion they backed the right version of "the science". |
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01-20-2022, 08:27 AM | #795 | ||
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01-20-2022, 08:43 AM | #796 |
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There is a very interesting article to read on covid-19 and pregnancy. This article came out on the 14th of January with data from Scotland.
https://www.science.org/content/arti...OAUT3c.twitter There are reports of similar numbers across the country here too. |
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01-20-2022, 09:13 AM | #797 | ||
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01-20-2022, 10:31 AM | #798 | |||
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01-20-2022, 12:34 PM | #799 |
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that rather depends on whether or not you viewed the deaths over the last month or so as avoidable, or merely collateral.
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01-20-2022, 04:36 PM | #800 | |
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And of course restrictions and lockdowns have adverse consequences - and potentially for a lot of people - as the article posted by Ennoch a day or two ago illustrated. That might be mere collateral to those quick to demand more restrictions but those consequences are very real for the people affected.... |
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JustChris17487.50 |
01-22-2022, 02:24 PM | #801 | |
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One of the issues on the go at the moment is that you've got the 'restrictions, restrictions, restrictions' being noisy on one side, seemingly oblivious to everything else that's trying to kill us off as humans. And then on the other side you have the anti-vaxxers, 'plandemic' nonsense being equally as loud. But the thing is, the grey in the middle is the reality, not these polarised loud voices. Masks and vaccinations and an end to restrictions seems a sensible middle ground because otherwise we're going to be in this loop forever. And while the entertainment restrictions don't really bother me, I totally appreciate the negative impact they have on those who are far more outgoing and socially active than me, as well as those whose livelihoods rely on this trade. |
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01-24-2022, 03:39 AM | #802 | ||
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yes mental health is important, but to try and argue its most important in the absence of a balanced approach, i just cant agree. life is full of rules, we managed to follow them for years for the most part. our grandparents who lived through a war (mine fought in it) would be distraught that we can't follow rules in a pandemic about meeting in a group, given the sacrifices they made both during the war and for years afterwards (ration books anyone). |
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sahajesh2294.00 |
01-24-2022, 08:47 AM | #803 |
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covid updates
Could omicron mutate to become more deadly?
The variants that have risen to prominence have done so because they contain advantageous mutations for the coronavirus. We are essentially witnessing Darwinian evolution – survival of the fittest – in real time. Variants with beneficial mutations, such as those providing escape from antibodies or shorter incubation periods, are rapidly displacing their less fit predecessors. The most important thing to remember about virus evolution is that natural selection favors variants that spread better than other variants. how to telemedicine curogram.com/blog/how-does-telemedicine-work The great news is that more pathogenic – or dangerous – variants are less likely to spread well. This is because individuals who feel particularly sick tend to naturally self-isolate, reducing the virus’s chance to transmit. Also good news is that, because infection with one variant provides partial immunity to others, omicron’s rapid spread has brought on delta’s swift decline. At this point it is expected that all new variants that spread widely – so-called variants of concern – will continue to be highly transmissible. |
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01-24-2022, 09:16 AM | #804 | |
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There are certainly many scenarios for endemic nature of this SARSCOV2. It could join the 4 benign CoVs as an annoying annual cause of the common cold. But how long it takes to get there is unclear, since there isn't a lot of modern history available for the CoVs. No one really knows how long OC43 took when it entered around 1890 to become benign. On the other hand these benign CoVs could actually be more deadly than we appreciate, but since we all are getting infected many times over our life, we may just be immunized from dozens and dozens of infections. It could be like the flu and have up and down years based the virus' genome that year. This would mean that there could be some pandemic years again. But I think what is worrying right now is that it has established infections in animals and thus will exit the human population from time to time and then reenter. What that new variant will look like is not always clear. But as you accurately point out viruses that have enhanced spread and immune evasion will be selected for. In many cases this lines up with being less deadly. But even our acceptable risk of the flu still results in more than 30,000 deaths a year in the US (not counting the masked Covid years). But whether it is less deadly or more, certainly remains unclear. History has certainly shown us that both futures are possible. Many viruses got less deadly over time, but there are plenty that remained deadly over their existence. Let's hope vaccinations and omicron will allow us to have a pleasant and normal 2022. |
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01-24-2022, 09:41 AM | #805 |
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In addition to the animal-human-animal-human pathway, I think one of the other concerns is long term chronic infections of Sars-Cov2 in immunocompromised populations, such as in sub-Saharan Africa where AIDS is rife. South Africa in particular has around 7.5M cases, almost 18% of its population.
There are drugs to control AIDS, but poverty & ignorance means that there will be substantial segments of the 38 million people thought to be infected worldwide will either have limited or irregular access to these drugs. Many of these countries also have lower vaccination rates, high levels of inequality and healthcare poverty so the chances of random mutations happening could be higher than in well-vaccinated western economies. The expressions 'none of us are vaccinated until all of us are vaccinated' springs to mind..... |
01-24-2022, 10:02 AM | #806 | |||||
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01-24-2022, 10:14 AM | #807 | |
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But as of now the animal host is the big worry, as that is where omicron is really thought to have came from. In the US we see the virus in deer and one can imagine what happens if it spreads to live stock for example. I'm not in anyway saying that live stock would get sick from this human Coronavirus as there are plenty of CoVs that infect cattle for example, it would just mean that the current SARSCOV2 would have additional hosts to spread to and hide out. On the other hand we know of several big cats in zoo that did die of SARSCOV2 so it can be dealt in some species. In the end this ability to infect everyone and go back and forth in rodents, deer, live stock is why our grandkids will still be messing with this virus. It is mostly likely already a truly endemic agent. |
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01-24-2022, 10:21 AM | #808 |
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i didnt think we're a great distance apart, until you said this. you werent locked up in lockdown. you were just being asked not to do the things you loved, to do some less risky things.
the number of people who've come out and said they did more walking during lockdown etc etc and you reference being locked up. its as sensationalist as the tabloids already mentioned. |
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01-24-2022, 10:37 AM | #809 | |
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Your second point though highlights why it's so easy to judge others by your own benchmarks. How dare you suggest that expressing how I felt at the time was 'sensationalist'. How dare you. I hate living in a city and I'm doing what I can to get out of said city. My coping mechanism for stress has always been to escape the city and get away from people; lockdown prevented that. Sure, I was lucky that I could still get out running etc but that is not the same and didn't come close to filling the gap that mountains and sea fill. For other people who were inactive even just walking 1/4 of the trails that I was running was a massive improvement for them. Knowing other people were coping well, or that I was 'lucky' I still had farmland nearby to run through, didn't help one iota. Sure, it would have been worse to be stuck in a high rise city centre tower block but I wasn't. I was where I was and I was having to cope with the hand I was dealt, and it was shit. Ergo, it felt like being locked up to me as that is the way my brain was reacting, no matter how much happy go lucky positivity someone tried to direct at me. It seems you really don't understand the impact of mental health issues, either how they can manifest themselves or how they can impact us despite everything appearing 'okay' from the outside. Last edited by Ennoch; 01-24-2022 at 03:43 PM.. |
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01-24-2022, 12:56 PM | #810 | |||
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As I've said before, I don't want to see unnecessary deaths but IMO there's a balance to be struck. I can't remember the name of the author but an article I read recently summed-up my own thoughts quite well: "we all have lives to lead and there's more to life than simply avoiding death". |
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01-25-2022, 04:03 AM | #812 | ||
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the point is, i chose to take the mental health hit at the time knowing there would be a time where it wouldnt be as hard. i do understand not everyone can do that and the reality is, its not gone well for me. I'd be in a far better place right now if I hadn't missed a holiday in the alps, if I'd ridden the bike a lot more, if I hadn't had months go by where the only time i left the house was the school run, but that is what i read into what we were being asked to do. So i did it. |
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01-25-2022, 05:55 AM | #813 | ||
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I'm reminded of my old boss with my previous company a number of years ago. I'd explained that I wasn't in a good place, yet she said to me 'we all have our struggles, you just need to leave them at the door of the office when you come in in the morning. I have things going on and while I'm in work I just park them and don't let them impact me or my work'. There was zero empathy for my situation because she believed that everyone should be able to block stuff out at will. Then her primary school age son started having panic attacks and she could no longer do that. It took her a while but she did actually apologise because for her it had been an awakening as to how other people struggled once the straw was applied to the back of her camel. Everyone has different breaking points and thresholds, but once the threshold has been crossed it's very difficult to then go back to your old way of ignoring stresses once the dam has been burst once. Several of my close friends ended up in similar situations to me mentally. I have friends who are seriously struggling because they own businesses and were at risk of losing them etc etc. I've got other friends who got furloughed and found it great because they had time and energy to direct towards finding other jobs, or learning new skills etc etc. At the start of lockdown v1 I was at home working 10hr days while my now ex was able to go out and sunbathe and work her way through a big pile of books she'd not had time to read, or go for long runs every day. Very different experiences even in the same household. Conversely I didn't actually have much issue with the first phase of the initial lockdown because it was such an unknown that it was the prudent choice. However, continued lockdowns and threats of lockdown have such a negative impact on peoples mental health that they cannot be considered the primary choice any more, and shouldn't have been for a long time after they still were. I'm not falling out with you over this because it is genuinely interesting hearing how other people see the world, and I am acutely aware how a civilised conversation in person can come across very differently online, I'm just trying to express why some of us have the views on these things that we do. Maybe poorly, but it's as good as I can manage. |
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01-25-2022, 07:08 AM | #814 | |
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There is one thing that I have observed over the years, is where we also sit in the positive/negative spectrum. Is the glass half full, or half empty? I see this position as having a powerful drive in my own family. My mother has had mental heath issues all through her life. When I was born, she clearly had post-natal depression, not really recognised back then, plus also being traumatised by the second world war, was given treatment. She had that horrid 'electric shock' treatment, not sure if that didn't make things worse. She is now 96 and still has nightmares about the war and her life. Her glass is always half empty. My wife has had poor health since her 30's, had glandular fever and it left her with CFS/M.E. Life really ruined by that condition. Plus allergies, compromised immune system, cancer which almost killed her, fighting for her life one night with a unknown infection, something in the sepsis spectrum. Many folks who know her, can't understand how she can be so cheerful, she has been referred to as the "smiley lady". Her glass is half full. First hand, I'm seeing and dealing with both sides of the emotions and approach to Covid challenges. With my wider family and friends, I'm surprised who are falling over with the present situation and who seem to have the resilience to cope, even see benefits to the restrictions. I do see some evidence that the positive/negative response has a big part to play in the outcome. Empathy is a key to understanding how different we are. |
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