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      04-30-2021, 09:08 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Flamingi View Post
There are basically three big players in the semiconductor world: TSMC, Intel and Samsung. TSMC is producing ALL of AMDs processors and GPUs (which includes PS5 and Xbox Series X) as well as Nvidia GPU and a big part of Apple Silicon. Just to give you an idea about which scale of production we are talking about. Intel is only producing for them selves, while Samsung produces their own chips, the rest of Apple silicon as well as most of the CPUs you will find in phones (Is there anything Samsung does not do? They even built the Burj Khalifa!). All the things I just numbered are in very big demand due to Covid obviously.

With foundries of that scale everything needs time, a lot of time. We're talking about 5-10 years until you notice the effects of decisions made today. Unfortunately the biggest of those foundries TSMC is running on 110% since they introduced their 7nm manufacturing node. With Intel only producing for themselves there is basically only Samsung that can supply chips in a sufficient manner. Ramping up the capacities is not possible in reasonable time frames (they are building new facilities, but you can probably imagine it takes years until they are ready to go live).

Apart from the automotive industry, you can directly see the effects of that shortage in the supply for graphics cards. They are currently going for double the MSRP (although miners buying up all the cards worsen the situation additionally).
Thanks Flamingi What does all of that have to do with parts shortage for BMW and other carmakers?

Which BMW supplier factory isn't getting components? The factory is owned by a company. What is the name of the company, and what city is the factory located in? Who is their supplier of raw materials? Which of their factories (city name, please) isn't able to receive raw materials?

What happened to the installed "chip" capacity in the world that existed on December 31, 2019? Did it disappear?
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      04-30-2021, 11:55 PM   #24
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TSMC high end stuff mostly made in Taiwan, lower end elsewhere, the capacity didn't disappear, everyone made more, chip demand are just even higher. When COVID hits all car maker (out of caution) cut the order, so they lost some of that allocation too. As to which chips goes to whom exactly, no idea. You would have to keep track a lot middle steps (chip go on IC board, things got packaged elsewhere etc)
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      05-01-2021, 02:05 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by Flamingi View Post
There are basically three big players in the semiconductor world: TSMC, Intel and Samsung. TSMC is producing ALL of AMDs processors and GPUs (which includes PS5 and Xbox Series X) as well as Nvidia GPU and a big part of Apple Silicon. Just to give you an idea about which scale of production we are talking about. Intel is only producing for them selves, while Samsung produces their own chips, the rest of Apple silicon as well as most of the CPUs you will find in phones (Is there anything Samsung does not do? They even built the Burj Khalifa!). All the things I just numbered are in very big demand due to Covid obviously.

With foundries of that scale everything needs time, a lot of time. We're talking about 5-10 years until you notice the effects of decisions made today. Unfortunately the biggest of those foundries TSMC is running on 110% since they introduced their 7nm manufacturing node. With Intel only producing for themselves there is basically only Samsung that can supply chips in a sufficient manner. Ramping up the capacities is not possible in reasonable time frames (they are building new facilities, but you can probably imagine it takes years until they are ready to go live).

Apart from the automotive industry, you can directly see the effects of that shortage in the supply for graphics cards. They are currently going for double the MSRP (although miners buying up all the cards worsen the situation additionally).
This is true, but TSMC is actually not a supplier of note for what there is a shortage of currently in automotive. The chips that are in short supply are not-too-exciting parts from Renesas, Infineon, NXP, STM, etc. that are all fabricated on much older nodes like 28nm and up. Well, TSMC does fab quite a bit of older process stuff too, but they are not close to the only game in town for these types of chips. Infineon, Renesas, NXP (Freescale), STMicro, UMC, Global Foundries, TI, etc. manufacture the bulk of these chips. TSMC is only the bottleneck for < 20nm, so that mainly affects the newest products from Apple, AMD, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Xilinx, Intel (Altera).

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec...s-chip-factory

Last edited by chris719; 05-01-2021 at 02:12 AM..
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      05-01-2021, 03:16 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
This is true, but TSMC is actually not a supplier of note for what there is a shortage of currently in automotive. The chips that are in short supply are not-too-exciting parts from Renesas, Infineon, NXP, STM, etc. that are all fabricated on much older nodes like 28nm and up. Well, TSMC does fab quite a bit of older process stuff too, but they are not close to the only game in town for these types of chips. Infineon, Renesas, NXP (Freescale), STMicro, UMC, Global Foundries, TI, etc. manufacture the bulk of these chips. TSMC is only the bottleneck for < 20nm, so that mainly affects the newest products from Apple, AMD, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Xilinx, Intel (Altera).

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec...s-chip-factory
Yes you are correct. For the normal control units they use older nodes, which there are plenty of other manufacturers too. But I (maybe wrongly) assumed it's the high power components that are lacking, e.g. Driving Assistant Professional (they removed that option from some of the lower priced cars, removal of passenger lumbar support is probably unrelated to chip shortage) which I think uses more or less state of the art nodes for their CPUs.

Last edited by Flamingi; 05-01-2021 at 03:40 AM..
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      05-01-2021, 03:35 AM   #27
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Thanks Flamingi What does all of that have to do with parts shortage for BMW and other carmakers?
As I wrote in a comment earlier, I might be in the wrong with the impact of those specific companies on parts shortage. The companies I named are manufacturing state of the art chips and many of the chips in car electronics simply don't need to be that powerful and use older production nodes. This opens up a fair bit of other companies that can produce those chips. But let's just assume either I am right in the automotive industry needing state of the art chips (e.g. for drivers assistance systems) or the current state of the industry is the same even for the older nodes.
So what does that have to do with the shortage? It's rather simple: the demand for sermiconductors spiked in the last months and the supply just can't keep up. That means there is less product on the market than needed and hence you might get less than you ordered. Additionally, as someone else mentioned, car manufacturers cut their orders due to covid, but the demand unexpectedtly didn't really slow down. So now they are getting just what they ordered (or even less), which is not enough to keep up with production. And they can't get more chips as the capacity of suppliers is booked out for probably the next couple years.

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Which BMW supplier factory isn't getting components?
Basically all factories that are doing anything with semiconductors.
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The factory is owned by a company. What is the name of the company, and what city is the factory located in?
I mentioned the companies, these (TSMC, Intel, Samsung for the state of the art nodes) do own multiple factories in multiple cities of course.

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Originally Posted by chassis View Post
Who is their supplier of raw materials? Which of their factories (city name, please) isn't able to receive raw materials?
I'm actually not quite sure who is the supplier of raw materials, but I think that is not the issue here, it's the production capacity of the foundries. The raw material is silicon and the foundries are creating crystals (they look like big candles) with a special crystalline structure, this takes about a month until the crystal is ready for the next step. It is then in sliced into thin wafers, which have to be carefully cleaned and polished in a clean room. I think this is still manual labours, so that takes some time too. Finally, on those wafers the chips themselves are produced, with some really really fancy machines. I mention the "fancy" machines specifically, because that's not something you can just buy to increase the production capacity. As you can imagine from the process I just described, the whole thing is not really flexible, so it can't be scaled up and down easily.

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What happened to the installed "chip" capacity in the world that existed on December 31, 2019? Did it disappear?
The capacity is still the same, the demand just exploded. Modern production uses just in time parts availability. It is simply too expensive to stockpile the parts needed for production. This is the reason why the whole production has to stop if one part is missing. Without any new supply they can continue just a couple days, or maybe weeks at most.

Last edited by Flamingi; 05-01-2021 at 03:47 AM..
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      05-01-2021, 05:14 AM   #28
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I ordered a 21 X3 M40i and they said they can't do the lumbar adjustment and bolster adjustment for the passenger seat. Those are supposed to be standard features on this model. Gave me a small credit in return, but I obviously would've much rather had the features instead.

I'm not sure if any other features like this aren't available on other models. Since it's an M40i at least I had no issues getting driver assistance pack.
I think the current situation (at least for the 3/4/X3/X4 level) is no passenger lumbar support, no venitlated seats (if those are available at all) and no DAP for non-M-Performance models
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      05-01-2021, 07:01 AM   #29
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I think the current situation (at least for the 3/4/X3/X4 level) is no passenger lumbar support, no venitlated seats (if those are available at all) and no DAP for non-M-Performance models
That's my understanding as well. For me at least, the real question is how much of this carries over to the LCI models once announced and in production. I do like some of the features coming with the LCI, so no issue waiting a few months for them - but just hope that a full featured X3 is available then.

Also, as someone that works in a field (not car related) that is heavily chip/semiconductor based, we have seen lead times on some of the chips we use go from 4 months to ~13 months. Needless to say, the issues with fabrication are truly affecting all industries.
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      05-01-2021, 08:26 AM   #30
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      05-01-2021, 08:51 AM   #31
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      05-01-2021, 09:57 AM   #32
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Have names been named, for the companies that make "chips" that are presently directly impacting auto factories?

Which company(ies), and which of their factories, isn't(aren't) making "chips" in the needed quantity or quality?
Semiconductor factory fire gave a big gut punch to multiple industries using semiconductors. Home electronics market also impacted.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/renesas...on-11616414181

This is in addition to this semiconductor factory fire:
https://www.prosoundnetwork.com/busi...audio-industry
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      05-01-2021, 11:53 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by Wild Blue View Post
Semiconductor factory fire gave a big gut punch to multiple industries using semiconductors. Home electronics market also impacted.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/renesas...on-11616414181

This is in addition to this semiconductor factory fire:
https://www.prosoundnetwork.com/busi...audio-industry
Thanks.

OK, a fire in Renesas Tokyo and a fire in AKM Nobeoka City. Two factories are crippling the global auto industry? C'mon. You all believe this? How many of you have experience in supply chains in your professional careers?

Last edited by chassis; 05-01-2021 at 01:18 PM..
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      05-01-2021, 02:18 PM   #34
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Have names been named, for the companies that make "chips" that are presently directly impacting auto factories?

Which company(ies), and which of their factories, isn't(aren't) making "chips" in the needed quantity or quality?
I work in the automotive industry and literally every chip manufacturer and every possible chip you think of is impacted: PHY Ethernet chips, Bluetooth chips, WiFi chips, memories, low and high end microcontrollers and SoCs, FPGAs, … (@chris719 already mentioned most of these manufacturers: Infineon, Renesas, NXP (Freescale), STMicro, UMC, Global Foundries, TI, Xilinx, etc.)

What makes the situation even more complicated is that each car has 10s of different ECUs/devices that auto manufacturers get from various OEMs. And now depending on how those OEMs are managing their supply chains, in 1 car you might be short on 1 ECU, in another 2-3 ECUs, in another maybe more. For some common parts (e.g. memories) we do multi sourcing but for high tech ones (micro/SoC/Ethernet/WiFi/BT) that need specific SW/HW design you can't just simply switch to another chip! This makes it super complicated for car manufacturers to decide on cutting options/features vs. delaying the whole production schedule.

Another fun fact: depending on the contract terms, car manufacturers are now fining OEMs for not delivering ECUs, which then OEMs fine their suppliers, and then those suppliers fine their suppliers and so on… which of course is not going to help with ramping up production capacities. Some companies have realized this and stopped charging fines and are "eating up" the fines by the guy above which will obviously hurt them financially in the short term but they are betting on better suppliers relationships and faster recovery this way. The whole thing is super fun and amusing to watch
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      05-01-2021, 02:37 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by soheil View Post
I work in the automotive industry and literally every chip manufacturer and every possible chip you think of is impacted: PHY Ethernet chips, Bluetooth chips, WiFi chips, memories, low and high end microcontrollers and SoCs, FPGAs, … (@chris719 already mentioned most of these manufacturers: Infineon, Renesas, NXP (Freescale), STMicro, UMC, Global Foundries, TI, Xilinx, etc.)

What makes the situation even more complicated is that each car has 10s of different ECUs/devices that auto manufacturers get from various OEMs. And now depending on how those OEMs are managing their supply chains, in 1 car you might be short on 1 ECU, in another 2-3 ECUs, in another maybe more. For some common parts (e.g. memories) we do multi sourcing but for high tech ones (micro/SoC/Ethernet/WiFi/BT) that need specific SW/HW design you can't just simply switch to another chip! This makes it super complicated for car manufacturers to decide on cutting options/features vs. delaying the whole production schedule.

Another fun fact: depending on the contract terms, car manufacturers are on fining OEMs for not delivering ECUs, which then OEMs fine their suppliers, and then those suppliers fine their suppliers and so on… which of course is not going to help with ramping up production capacities. Some companies have realized this and stopped charging fines and are "eating up" the fines by the guy above which will obviously hurt them financially in the short term but they are betting on better suppliers relationships and faster recovery this way. The whole thing is super fun and amusing to watch
soheil Good info. Do all of the examples of ECU and device manufacturers you listed get their chips from two factories in Japan that suffered fire damage?
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      05-01-2021, 04:07 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by chassis View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by soheil View Post
I work in the automotive industry and literally every chip manufacturer and every possible chip you think of is impacted: PHY Ethernet chips, Bluetooth chips, WiFi chips, memories, low and high end microcontrollers and SoCs, FPGAs, … (@chris719 already mentioned most of these manufacturers: Infineon, Renesas, NXP (Freescale), STMicro, UMC, Global Foundries, TI, Xilinx, etc.)

What makes the situation even more complicated is that each car has 10s of different ECUs/devices that auto manufacturers get from various OEMs. And now depending on how those OEMs are managing their supply chains, in 1 car you might be short on 1 ECU, in another 2-3 ECUs, in another maybe more. For some common parts (e.g. memories) we do multi sourcing but for high tech ones (micro/SoC/Ethernet/WiFi/BT) that need specific SW/HW design you can't just simply switch to another chip! This makes it super complicated for car manufacturers to decide on cutting options/features vs. delaying the whole production schedule.

Another fun fact: depending on the contract terms, car manufacturers are on fining OEMs for not delivering ECUs, which then OEMs fine their suppliers, and then those suppliers fine their suppliers and so on… which of course is not going to help with ramping up production capacities. Some companies have realized this and stopped charging fines and are "eating up" the fines by the guy above which will obviously hurt them financially in the short term but they are betting on better suppliers relationships and faster recovery this way. The whole thing is super fun and amusing to watch
soheil Good info. Do all of the examples of ECU and device manufacturers you listed get their chips from two factories in Japan that suffered fire damage?
I'm on the R&D side so don't know exactly which particular factories are affecting this shortage but I can confirm that Renesas microcontrollers are seeing a shortage. But from what I see it is more widespread so don't think it would be limited to particular incidents in 1 or 2 factories. We are now being asked by our supplier management and purchasing groups to reduce the R&D and test sample quantities for programs with SOPs in 2023 and 2024 which tells me that the situation is not gonna improve that fast.
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      05-01-2021, 04:15 PM   #37
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I tried to order a X5 40i build today and was told Harman/Kardon audio is not available due to the chip shortage. No ETA on when it will be an option again.
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      05-01-2021, 04:34 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soheil View Post
I work in the automotive industry and literally every chip manufacturer and every possible chip you think of is impacted: PHY Ethernet chips, Bluetooth chips, WiFi chips, memories, low and high end microcontrollers and SoCs, FPGAs, … (@chris719 already mentioned most of these manufacturers: Infineon, Renesas, NXP (Freescale), STMicro, UMC, Global Foundries, TI, Xilinx, etc.)

What makes the situation even more complicated is that each car has 10s of different ECUs/devices that auto manufacturers get from various OEMs. And now depending on how those OEMs are managing their supply chains, in 1 car you might be short on 1 ECU, in another 2-3 ECUs, in another maybe more. For some common parts (e.g. memories) we do multi sourcing but for high tech ones (micro/SoC/Ethernet/WiFi/BT) that need specific SW/HW design you can't just simply switch to another chip! This makes it super complicated for car manufacturers to decide on cutting options/features vs. delaying the whole production schedule.

Another fun fact: depending on the contract terms, car manufacturers are now fining OEMs for not delivering ECUs, which then OEMs fine their suppliers, and then those suppliers fine their suppliers and so on… which of course is not going to help with ramping up production capacities. Some companies have realized this and stopped charging fines and are "eating up" the fines by the guy above which will obviously hurt them financially in the short term but they are betting on better suppliers relationships and faster recovery this way. The whole thing is super fun and amusing to watch
Great insight, thank you! I'm also in to auto industry but not from the electronics side
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      05-01-2021, 05:11 PM   #39
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Thanks.

OK, a fire in Renesas Tokyo and a fire in AKM Nobeoka City. Two factories are crippling the global auto industry? C'mon. You all believe this? How many of you have experience in supply chains in your professional careers?
It's a contributing factor. Maybe you are new to semiconductors and electronics? The CapEx required for modern fabs is so high that this isn't like other industries where there are a lot of sources of something. Further, even if you are making something relatively mundane, it is customized to be produced on a specific process. If you move it, there is a lot of work to be done and high cost (new mask sets, etc.). It takes time... AKM's fab burned down in November 2020 and since this fab was specialized in producing mixed-signal ICs, they can't even move most of their designs to competitors. Their whole business depends on that fab and it's still going to take them over a year to get it back up and running. AKM doesn't sound important to automotive, but they did make some popular sensors to go along with audio chips. Don't underestimate the schedule impact of having to redesign a PCB because the audio codec that Toyota designed in is now unavailable.

I work in medical, and even we can see domino effects from the AKM fire. I have a design that used an AKM competitor's parts (Cirrus), and soon after the fire, a bunch of large AKM customers and speculators bought up the entire supply of the substitute part in the channel. We ended up having to switch to a TI part which required more extensive board and software changes.

Did you forget when flooding in Thailand crippled the worldwide supply of hard drives in 2011? Or when shortages of multilayer ceramic capacitors from Murata, TDK, etc. were causing delays a couple years ago? The electronics industry is built for production at massive scale because nothing else is profitable. There is little stockpiling of inventory and demand must be projected far in advance due to how time consuming and costly it is to add capacity.

Last edited by chris719; 05-01-2021 at 05:25 PM..
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      05-02-2021, 07:58 PM   #40
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I have first hand information that Detroit automakers are partially shutting down, more accurately - slowing down, due to lack of electronics-related products. I also have first hand information that the substantial majority of automotive electronics-related products are manufactured in Taiwan and South Korea.

Fires in two factories in Japan does not seem to be a sufficiently compelling explanation for the "events" as they presently seem to be.
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      05-02-2021, 08:16 PM   #41
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I have first hand information that Detroit automakers are partially shutting down, more accurately - slowing down, due to lack of electronics-related products. I also have first hand information that the substantial majority of automotive electronics-related products are manufactured in Taiwan and South Korea.

Fires in two factories in Japan does not seem to be a sufficiently compelling explanation for the "events" as they presently seem to be.
You seem to have no clue on what you are talking about. Doesn't seem like you would know silicon from silicone. No one said the fires were the primary factor.

I know who the top 5 automotive suppliers are and where their products are fabricated for the most part. You should try research instead of "first hand" information.

Last edited by chris719; 05-02-2021 at 08:24 PM..
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      05-02-2021, 08:28 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
You seem to have no clue on what you are talking about. Doesn't seem like you would know silicon from silicone. No one said the fires were the primary factor.

I know who the top 5 automotive suppliers are and where their products are fabricated for the most part. You should try research instead of "first hand" information.
chris719 Thanks. What is your 25-words-or-less explanation for auto industry slowdowns blamed on "chip" shortage?
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      05-02-2021, 08:51 PM   #43
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chris719 Thanks. What is your 25-words-or-less explanation for auto industry slowdowns blamed on "chip" shortage?
Demand > supply. Supply was already short, orders got reduced at start of pandemic then reversed course. Wafers allocated elsewhere. Texas 3rd world power infrastructure.
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      05-02-2021, 09:21 PM   #44
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chris719 Thanks. What is your 25-words-or-less explanation for auto industry slowdowns blamed on "chip" shortage?
BTW, you know every automaker can have different dependencies. US automakers used a lot of Freescale (NXP) and TI parts. European - Infineon and NXP (Philips). Japanese - Renesas, Toshiba, etc. This is not 100% true any longer, but historically the Japanese especially used Japanese products where possible.

Even though NXP is Dutch and Samsung is Korean, their US fabs in Austin suffered big setbacks with that power fiasco. It's not as simple as restarting as soon as power comes back. Most fabs in US and Europe, other than Intel's, are not leading-edge and that makes them more likely to produce automotive products. Automotive chips are mostly produced on 28nm or larger processes.
Appreciate 1
clee1982755.50
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