[MY340i]

Will there be a lockdown for Christmas 2021. place your bets.

[3-GT]

Wales

Lockdown - Not likely.
Some social distancing measures reimplemented - High possibility.

Will depend on the efficacy of this new pill in the general public, if it get's largely used before Xmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899.amp

England

Firm No to lockdown.
Soft No to social distance measures.

[F30Andy]

For my own selfish reasons I hope there is a lockdown.

I don't think the country can afford another one, but I wouldn't mind if they did it.

[isleaiw1]

No to Lockdown

Yes to Boris changing his mind a few times on the other restrictions before settling on doing the best part of sod all and whinging it....

(And definitely in the camp of hoping there doesnt need to be another lockdown from a business perspective and a personal one as I have booked to take my Mum out for Xmas dinner this year!)

[MashinBenzin]

If there is to be any lockdown at all, I hope it's over Christmas as that will be the single most effective time to do it.

[TodmordenLad]

Hard to say with this populist govt as I've lost count of the number of u-turns Johnson has made. I no longer have any expectation that this govt will do anything right or well, and the management of the pandemic is no exception. New case, death and hospitalisation rates speak for themselves.

[JustChris]

No chance

[225]

No way he would allow another one over Christmas. I'd really like masks to be mandatory for the winter though.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by JustChris

No chance

Agreed - almost no chance, without a significant new variant appearing.

Something quite interesting seems to be appearing on the mapping of cases.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deta...tive-map/cases

Zoom into almost any major English city (Scotland doesn't show the local detail) and the same pattern appears - the city centres where population density is the highest, now have the lowest level of cases. This is the opposite of what has happened previously.

This is despite city centres typically having lower levels of vaccination (you can switch between vaccination and cases on the map). It appears that Covid has reached the parts that vaccination can't (younger, lower income, more ethnically diverse...)

My interpretation (albeit with no medical expertise) is that cases are going to drop pretty sharply over the next few weeks as between the vaccine and the disease, the population now has a good level of immunity...

[Ennoch]

Similar data's available from Scotland here:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profi...43010/Overview

Shame it has to be shown separately given we're all the same island...

[JD6]

Originally Posted by Ennoch

Similar data's available from Scotland here:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profi...43010/Overview

Shame it has to be shown separately given we're all the same island...

Unless I have missed it, I only seem to be able to zoom in to local authority level in Scotland on that map. In England you can get right down to electoral ward - I would guess there are on average 20 wards per local authority. That helps to illustrate the bullseye pattern of cases.

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by JD6

Agreed - almost no chance, without a significant new variant appearing.

Something quite interesting seems to be appearing on the mapping of cases.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deta...tive-map/cases

Zoom into almost any major English city (Scotland doesn't show the local detail) and the same pattern appears - the city centres where population density is the highest, now have the lowest level of cases. This is the opposite of what has happened previously.

This is despite city centres typically having lower levels of vaccination (you can switch between vaccination and cases on the map). It appears that Covid has reached the parts that vaccination can't (younger, lower income, more ethnically diverse...)

My interpretation (albeit with no medical expertise) is that cases are going to drop pretty sharply over the next few weeks as between the vaccine and the disease, the population now has a good level of immunity...

Good call out. It's very much the case in my city, highest case rates in suburbia and particularly in more affluent areas.

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

If there is to be any lockdown at all, I hope it's over Christmas as that will be the single most effective time to do it.

Nope, its our most lucrative week!

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

Good call out. It's very much the case in my city, highest case rates in suburbia and particularly in more affluent areas.

Earlier it seemed to be the poorer areas that suffered most as they were going to work whereas more affluent areas were populated by more who could work from home.

Now it seems that those more affluent areas are still WFH but catching it through their social activities! And of course most companies have kept restrictions in place for their staff to meet their duty of care, but relaxed for their customers in line with govt guidance.....

It may be the children of the affluent who are now the main cases, and of course more people with kids move to the suburbs if they can for additional child friendly space....

[Ennoch]

Originally Posted by JD6

Unless I have missed it, I only seem to be able to zoom in to local authority level in Scotland on that map. In England you can get right down to electoral ward - I would guess there are on average 20 wards per local authority. That helps to illustrate the bullseye pattern of cases.

You need to use the drop down at the top (it's a crap dashboard layout) to select the area and then that gives you it by council ward within the council itself on a more granular map.

[mikeoz]

No
Won't happen

[MY340i]

scotland - yes
wales - maybe
england - maybe

[dopper99]

In order to invoke a full lockdown Boris would have to reinstate furlough - else millions of people could be on the poverty line within a month.

And he wont want to doing that in a hurry with what it's cost the country so far - unless it is absolutely necessary.

[dopper99]

This pretty much covers the current situation as it stands at the moment:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518

[MY340i]

germany looks to be moving into lockdown, scotland likely to be in lockdown for christmas too, oh wow.

[JNW1]

I certainly don't want to see another lockdown and personally the only way I think it would happen is if hospitalisations and deaths started to rise significantly. However, if the vast majority of vulnerable people have had two jabs plus a booster I see no reason why that should happen (unless of course a new strain emerges that's vaccine resistant).

[Kam05]

England might get another lockdown but how many will follow it? Uptake will be very low especially if there is no financial support (furlough). Regional lockdowns would be the best approach.