[sahajesh]

Really can't see Royal Mail and barbers/hairdressers going away - some of the latter may close down but the personal beauty industry isn't going away.

People will travel less for work, yes, as they and employers have seen it can be done. More people will WFH but being forced to do this isn't the same as choosing to.

It's not always conducive to good output either, let's not kid ourselves by thinking that the majority of those that can do this will do this.

[speedski]

Royal Mail will be fine - legal documents and financials will always need some aspect of post, and parcel volume is growing.

Hotels and bars will struggle, I think many people will realise that they don't need to eat out as much.

Working from home will become more common, I suspect the government will see the pollution and other such benefits of doing so and encourage firms to do so. I work in a very technically advanced business, and I have access to four different video/collaboration systems and to be honest, I can see alot of our day/short trip travel drying up when this returns (I would usually spend two of four weeks collectively a month travelling so it will hit me pretty hard).

The one thing I think will change is ecommerce - I see the couriers upping costs, I see the convenience of it dropping and the flexibility of it reducing. Its going to contract without a doubt.

If it doesn't then Amazon will continue to grow, the amazon logistics will continue to grow and then when the other competitors go under then Amazon will up the prices - and then it will be amazon for quick products, and the non amazon will grow with the slower delivery and slowboat from China stuff.

[isleaiw1]

I suspect people will appreciate bars and restaurants more and maybe more selective about when and where they go.... As for hotels, I expect a reduction in corporate spend as they try to cut costs and realise that video conferencing works for much more than they thought. Leisure travel will be down short term as people are nervous but the desire to adventure wont have gone away and indeed may have been increased by enforced localisation.

I doubt we hit prior profitability and revenue values until 2022/3 though...

[sahajesh]

What's the thought on airline pricing - keeping fares low to entice passengers or normal/high to get a greater profit margin for those who do need/want to travel once this is over?

[nickcuprar]

Looking a lot further into the future I can see freedom of movement being controlled a lot more, mainly for pollution/environmental reasons but also maybe to help with the huge overpopulation we face!

[AlanQS]

The shit storm just now is lives ending. After that we'll get the lives ruined, then some more virus killing people, then a maintenance of lives up-ended and I fear that will be for years... until the next new corona virus.

A bit pessimistic, I know, but hopefully reality will be a bit better than that.

One side result will be Brexit negotiations. Either the EU will play nice because it has been so bad, or there will be no deal because any loss to big German business due to a no deal Brexit, won't compare with what Covid-19 will already have done to them.

[GBR1]

Originally Posted by sahajesh

What's the thought on airline pricing - keeping fares low to entice passengers or normal/high to get a greater profit margin for those who do need/want to travel once this is over?

I think it depend on how many companies are still alive at the end of this. If most survive then competition will drive prices down again. If we lose some of the budget airline then prices will increase quickly, BA and co will want to make their short flights profitable again!

[GBR1]

The car industry could change after this, it will be interesting to see if they try for revenue through large volume and big discounts or low volume and no discounts.

They may need to do the latter to sure up the 2nd hand value of cars for a number of reasons!

They can use this as a reason to reset their business model!

[speedski]

Originally Posted by sahajesh

What's the thought on airline pricing - keeping fares low to entice passengers or normal/high to get a greater profit margin for those who do need/want to travel once this is over?

Shareholders means pricing won't drop.

The US airline bailout is ab absolute disgrace, the airlines just spent the good years investing billions into buying back more of the shares and now want support 'because we have no cash'.

I hope any airline that was highly profitable but didn't keep back for a rainy day gets a crap government deal to stay alive.

[robbiep]

Originally Posted by JustChris

Deeside Sports Centre. About 1 mile from home is 1/3 sites in the area being prepared as field hospital. There was some dark early discussion about it being used entirely as a morgue due to the ice rink there. FFS!

There's a Facebook video basically showing people 'shits getting real' kids quite large indoor skate and BMX park is getting torn down by diggers and bulldozers to make way for beds and end of life care.

😲

If / when it happens, it looks like I'll be based there, doing their stock setup and ordering.
We've been sat down this week doing a basic list for all 3 of the sites.

[JustChris]

Originally Posted by robbiep

If / when it happens, it looks like I'll be based there, doing their stock setup and ordering.
We've been sat down this week doing a basic list for all 3 of the sites.

Good luck! I also meant to post this in the general Wuhan Coronavirus thread.

Pretty shocking this site isn't just the sports halls, hints at the scale and long term planning that this was being ripped out 😲😪

[JD6]

Originally Posted by GBR1

The car industry could change after this, it will be interesting to see if they try for revenue through large volume and big discounts or low volume and no discounts.

They may need to do the latter to sure up the 2nd hand value of cars for a number of reasons!

They can use this as a reason to reset their business model!

The difficulty that the car industry would face with opting for low volume and no discounts, is that the economy will be perhaps 10 or 15% smaller than it was before the virus hit, so there will already be a surplus of cars. The price of fuel will be very low, so the incentive to buy a new, efficient car will have all but disappeared.

I imagine that the government will have to try some kind of scrappage scheme, as it did after the financial crisis, to try and get things moving, but any car company which imagines it can reduce discounting is going to have a tough time in my view.

[speedski]

Originally Posted by JD6

The difficulty that the car industry would face with opting for low volume and no discounts, is that the economy will be perhaps 10 or 15% smaller than it was before the virus hit, so there will already be a surplus of cars. The price of fuel will be very low, so the incentive to buy a new, efficient car will have all but disappeared.

I imagine that the government will have to try some kind of scrappage scheme, as it did after the financial crisis, to try and get things moving, but any car company which imagines it can reduce discounting is going to have a tough time in my view.

Add to that the catastrophic second hand/trade in values and the industry is going to suffer. Sure the interest rates will be low - but I really don't see that being enough

[EvilDrPorkChop]

Originally Posted by JD6

The difficulty that the car industry would face with opting for low volume and no discounts, is that the economy will be perhaps 10 or 15% smaller than it was before the virus hit, so there will already be a surplus of cars. The price of fuel will be very low, so the incentive to buy a new, efficient car will have all but disappeared.

I imagine that the government will have to try some kind of scrappage scheme, as it did after the financial crisis, to try and get things moving, but any car company which imagines it can reduce discounting is going to have a tough time in my view.

Maybe they'll reconsider the 'Premium' RFL tax, or at least revalue the £40k limit. Can't see many wanting to pay £320 premium a year when times are tough, especially in the second hand market.

[Tengocity]

There are some nice benefits to the lockdown situation though, as we can already see the reduction in emissions from industrial output and travel.

Whilst that impacts the economy I am sure it will benefit the environment and humans in its own way.

I hope local restaurants, shops, and services bounce back well. However, I think we can all begin to see how unnecessary lots of our travel actually is, whether it's the amount of commuting done, or air travel. I would hope that this gives us some longer term impetus to reduce the amount of travel we all do. I think we really ought to start pricing air travel in line with the damage it causes, and then we will see it being used more sensibly hopefully.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by speedski

Add to that the catastrophic second hand/trade in values and the industry is going to suffer. Sure the interest rates will be low - but I really don't see that being enough

Agreed. Since the 2009 financial crisis, car finance has vastly expanded. I'm not sure who is ultimately on the hook for the GFV element of PCP and its lease equivalent. You could imagine that used prices falling sharply could create some serious losses for car companies, or possibly banks if they have underwritten this.

Perhaps the government are even going to have to step in and bail out the car finance industry, which is not something I would like to see.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by JD6

Perhaps the government are even going to have to step in and bail out the car finance industry, which is not something I would like to see.

Originally Posted by EvilDrPorkChop

Maybe they'll reconsider the 'Premium' RFL tax, or at least revalue the £40k limit. Can't see many wanting to pay £320 premium a year when times are tough, especially in the second hand market.

I see these points of view as possibly 'opposites' in any solution.

I was only talking about this sort of issue last evening with my wife. Where is the money coming from to fund this sort of thing? Governments don't have money without a tax take.

Perhaps VAT will have to take a different direction, perhaps two or more rates, something equivalent to the luxury tax we've had in the past. Keep the lower rate for the most essential, helping the lower paid and those in need.

I see new luxury cars taking a bigger tax hit. We don't need a £40k BMW to get around, (if we have the resources fair enough), but to be funded by the tax payer will likely be debated with some hostility. There will be more important issues requiring support.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by JD6

Agreed. Since the 2009 financial crisis, car finance has vastly expanded. I'm not sure who is ultimately on the hook for the GFV element of PCP and its lease equivalent. You could imagine that used prices falling sharply could create some serious losses for car companies, or possibly banks if they have underwritten this.

Perhaps the government are even going to have to step in and bail out the car finance industry, which is not something I would like to see.

In the financial crisis car/finance companies took a big hit on the GFV.

The other factor, future residual values dropped, I know from experience. Looking to take a new car in 2009/10, the exact same car spec', was going to cost over £100 a month more. Didn't make any sense to move on.

I feel a lot of folks won't be keen to renew cars so quickly, there may be a personal revaluation on how long it is sensible to run a car.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

In the financial crisis car/finance companies took a big hit on the GFV.

The other factor, future residual values dropped, I know from experience. Looking to take a new car in 2009/10, the exact same car spec', was going to cost over £100 a month more. Didn't make any sense to move on.

I feel a lot of folks won't be keen to renew cars so quickly, there may be a personal revaluation on how long it is sensible to run a car.

I sold my F30 just before the lockdown and was giving some thought to my new lease car, which is sitting in a compound at Williams Manchester, unable to be delivered due to the lockdown. My initial reaction was to try and delay delivery until we have some clarity over how long movement might be restricted, coupled with the possibility that perhaps I should forfeit the modest deposit and not take the car at all.

However, it may be that even with the country in a weak financial position, another deal would still cost more, as the residual value takes a greater hit than the new price. So perhaps the deal I have on the table is the best I will find.

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by JD6

I sold my F30 just before the lockdown and was giving some thought to my new lease car, which is sitting in a compound at Williams Manchester, unable to be delivered due to the lockdown. My initial reaction was to try and delay delivery until we have some clarity over how long movement might be restricted, coupled with the possibility that perhaps I should forfeit the modest deposit and not take the car at all.

Would you lose the deposit? I'm not familiar with lease contracts but if it was sale/PCP they have to deliver within 30 days of the estimated date otherwise you can give them 7 days notice, after which they must either deliver the car or cancel the contract and refund your deposit.

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by Broncho

As soon as the restaurants, pubs and bars are open I’m hitting them big time if I’m still alive of course...

I'm hoping at least one or two of my local boozers survive, otherwise eight of my reasons for moving to this village will no longer apply!

[JD6]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

Would you lose the deposit? I'm not familiar with lease contracts but if it was sale/PCP they have to deliver within 30 days of the estimated date otherwise you can give them 7 days notice, after which they must either deliver the car or cancel the contract and refund your deposit.

Yes I believe I would lose it. There doesn't appear to be anything firm about delivery dates in the contract, just an estimate. The deposit is only £360, plus I have already paid G2L a £198 arrangement fee, so the total cost would be £558 I believe.

The car still really appeals to me, even if it looks completely inappropriate for a post-virus world!