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      11-14-2018, 05:16 PM   #1
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Brexit...

Sorry someone had to bring it up...

It's 40/60 to get through the next stage I'd say and can see it being rejected,tweaked and then approved.
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      11-14-2018, 05:33 PM   #2
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This is all real-time news updates and I hope that the full text will be published, however, from the headlines so far I think it's a massive climb-down by the UK.

The aspects that concern me the most at this stage :

The UK being bound into a customs union and, crucially, only ever being able to leave if the EU permits it. If this is the case then I see this as a red line breach which will result in cross-party rejection.

N.Ireland being subject to closer EU ties than the rest of the UK. The DUP will reject the deal if this is the case. Sturgeon and the SNP is now demanding the right to special ties to the EU.

When does the divorce bill have to be settled ?

Can the UK negotiate and implement other trade agreements during the transition period ?

The role of the ECJ. Another substantial red line and it's not yet clear, from what I've seen, what jurisdiction it will have.


The deal appears to be heavily in the best interests of the EU. Some Cabinet members will resign. Many Conservatives will rebel. At this stage I'd say it's got less than 40% chance of being approved in Parliament.
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      11-14-2018, 05:35 PM   #3
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This isn't the end, not even the beginning of the end but it may well be the end of the beginning.

This is just the bit that gets us across the line to a position whereby we can start the real negotiation of a future relationship.

It'll take another 2 years at least so probably nearer 5 since the vote.
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      11-14-2018, 05:47 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herr August Schmidhuber View Post
Just spoken to my MP (Conservative, obviously) and he puts it at less that 20% chance of getting through.
You'll love that then, a GE followed by a Corbyn government, rampant spending/borrowing/inflation and interest rates plus crazy personal tax % coupled with a no deal Brexit and lights out by 3pm every day meaning you'll be tripping up over the uncollected rubbish accumulating in the street....

Ah the good days
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      11-14-2018, 05:51 PM   #5
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She surely can’t get it through the commons. Numbers just aren’t there as with this deal she’s managed to upset both the leave and remain side. Large amount of her own party are against, Labour are largely against (though all they’re motivated by is a power grab), DUP are against, SNP are against... Quite some feat of incompetence. With any luck the party will grow some backbone and kick her into touch.
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      11-14-2018, 05:51 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herr August Schmidhuber View Post
I don't give a stuff. I don't pay tax and I'll be in southern Spain
Better hope they'll let you stay then!
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      11-14-2018, 06:10 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scoobyd View Post
She surely can’t get it through the commons. Numbers just aren’t there as with this deal she’s managed to upset both the leave and remain side. Large amount of her own party are against, Labour are largely against (though all they’re motivated by is a power grab), DUP are against, SNP are against... Quite some feat of incompetence. With any luck the party will grow some backbone and kick her into touch.
That's exactly what Corbyn is hoping for, thankfully the Tories and DUP fear him more than voting for May's plan.

She's not incompetent at all it's almost impossible to square this circle no one can get agreement across all the self interested parties, it's only a choice of the lessor of two evils that will prevail.
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      11-14-2018, 06:15 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herr August Schmidhuber View Post
Dual citizenship
You know that stuff you imagine in your mind isn't actually real don't you Lobb?
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      11-14-2018, 06:29 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wills2 View Post
That's exactly what Corbyn is hoping for, thankfully the Tories and DUP fear him more than voting for May's plan.

She's not incompetent at all it's almost impossible to square this circle no one can get agreement across all the self interested parties, it's only a choice of the lessor of two evils that will prevail.
It would be an impossible task for any leader, I don't think incompetence or even incontinence comes in to it.

If there is an election anytime soon or she resigns, guaranteed the next incumbent comes out with, 'I have a solution, we will have another referendum', they will then pray that the population changes it mind and votes remain and that the EU do not punish us too severely for daring to try to leave.

Of course if there is another referendum and it again says leave (even by a smaller majority), then whatever party is in power or leader is royally fucked.
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      11-14-2018, 06:31 PM   #10
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And there’s the rub. I genuinely believe that another referendum would only lead to a larger leave victory.
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      11-14-2018, 06:41 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herr August Schmidhuber View Post
Just spoken to my MP (Conservative, obviously) and he puts it at less that 20% chance of getting through.
You have created characters in the real world too! Do you dress up to play the MP, or is it just a verbal thing?!

Last edited by Goneinsixtyseconds; 11-16-2018 at 10:11 AM..
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      11-15-2018, 02:20 AM   #12
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I don't see the current deal getting through Parliament and am not convinced we'll be able to go back to the EU and negotiate something which will satisfy either Brexiters or Remainers.

Seems to me Theresa May won't last much longer as Prime Minister and I think we're quite possibly heading for a General Election. Labour - who will say absolutely anything to get into power - will probably campaign on either a Remain ticket - or at least holding a second referendum - and, if they win, as an end result on Brexit my money would then be on us staying in the EU but on worse terms than we had before the 2016 referendum.
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      11-15-2018, 03:23 AM   #13
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Looks like the PM will be have to rely on Labour abstentions to get this through come vote time next month.
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      11-15-2018, 03:59 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JNW1 View Post
I don't see the current deal getting through Parliament and am not convinced we'll be able to go back to the EU and negotiate something which will satisfy either Brexiters or Remainers.

Seems to me Theresa May won't last much longer as Prime Minister and I think we're quite possibly heading for a General Election. Labour - who will say absolutely anything to get into power - will probably campaign on either a Remain ticket - or at least holding a second referendum - and, if they win, as an end result on Brexit my money would then be on us staying in the EU but on worse terms than we had before the 2016 referendum.
I agree. I think the Labour campaign would be around a second referendum. Cameron's legacy is really something, he has (whatever happens from here) unleashed a complete disaster on the country.

Rabb has just resigned...
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      11-15-2018, 04:02 AM   #15
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I voted remain (just)
When the vote happened, I got behind it and wanted to leave sensibly.
Now, I'm just pissed off.

I think this "deal" gives us the worst of both worlds and, worse, it gives the EU all of the best cards in the continuing future relationship negotiations -- and we can't get out of it.

I would prefer to leave with no deal, or to remain than this pile of shite.

If we left with no deal, it would cause a significant short term shock, but we would adjust over time. It might even help rebalance our economy from a London centric services R us. It's a medium to long term "project".

If we remained, we could still get out in the future.

But given May is trying to keep as many people happy as possible, it's inevitable she's come up with something that tries to meet in the middle and therefore satisfies no-one.
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      11-15-2018, 04:41 AM   #16
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Does make you wonder how much real involvement Rab had in this? I can believe he broke this deal then came back from Brussels and resigned?
Previously May and her civil servants had been overruling people from No10?... apparently
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      11-15-2018, 04:44 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herr Dreier View Post
I voted remain (just)
When the vote happened, I got behind it and wanted to leave sensibly.
Now, I'm just pissed off.

I think this "deal" gives us the worst of both worlds and, worse, it gives the EU all of the best cards in the continuing future relationship negotiations -- and we can't get out of it.

I would prefer to leave with no deal, or to remain than this pile of shite.

If we left with no deal, it would cause a significant short term shock, but we would adjust over time. It might even help rebalance our economy from a London centric services R us. It's a medium to long term "project".

If we remained, we could still get out in the future.

But given May is trying to keep as many people happy as possible, it's inevitable she's come up with something that tries to meet in the middle and therefore satisfies no-one.
Interesting. I voted leave so approached this from a different starting point. However, I agree with absolutely everything you say.

Good to see that Mrs May is reuniting the country after all. On the basis that the deal is no good, I would also prefer a no-deal or remain for the reasons you have stated.
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      11-15-2018, 04:45 AM   #18
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Edit - old news!
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      11-15-2018, 04:46 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeoz View Post
Does make you wonder how much real involvement Rab had in this? I can believe he broke this deal then came back from Brussels and resigned?
Previously May and her civil servants had been overruling people from No10?... apparently
I think Raab was there in title only and to fill in for May when she was unavailable. Can't see him negotiating something then resigning because its a crock of shit

Although stranger things have happened.................
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      11-15-2018, 04:47 AM   #20
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This is an interesting moment. Until this fudged deal was announced, the PM and everyone involved had an incentive to rule out a second referendum, as it would only encourage the EU to give a crap deal. I would have done exactly the same in her shoes.

Now that the deal is effectively finalised, that incentive has gone. Those in government who want a second referendum are now free to make it clear. It might make sense to wait 2-3 days until the EU members have had a chance to put forward amendments to Barnier's document.

So I think we'll get a clearer impression next week of whether Tories are lining up to support another referendum or not, as they have been effectively gagged until now. If they do support it, I think it could happen much sooner than the media currently suggest. People are about as informed now about the issue as they'll ever be.
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      11-15-2018, 04:47 AM   #21
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From what I understand from this deal part of the back stop requires the EU to agree we are ready to leave....so previously we had a way of leaving on our own in Art 50 but if we sign this we will then need there permission....we have gone backwards
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      11-15-2018, 04:49 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeoz View Post
From what I understand from this deal part of the back stop requires the EU to agree we are ready to leave....so previously we had a way of leaving on our own in Art 50 but if we sign this we will then need there permission....we have gone backwards
That's absolutely how it is. Great isn't it?!
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