[mcoops]

Originally Posted by Lobb

At last. Someone who understands how to negotiate

I get this argument up to a point. But the problem is that from the outside, not revealing your negotiating position looks pretty well identical to not actually having one.

So how do we gain confidence? Well, one way is to look at the individuals entrusted with the planning and negotiation, and who is advising them. This brings us back to Fox, Davis and Boris. Fox is a loon and Boris is a gifted circus chimp. Less sure about Davis - I've occasionally found myself nodding along to some of his views and being appalled by others. I'd never heard of Sir Ivan Rogers until yesterday, but having an experienced EU ambassador throwing in the towel doesn't seem like a good start.

If someone can list a few wise heads who are going to lead us through these unrevealed negotations, great. But this is too big to simply take on faith.

[JNW1]

I understand some of the concerns raised by people on this thread but to me it really comes down to how we want to play things with regards the Single Market.

The reality is that we will have access to that Single Market post-Brexit (worst case scenario is it's just on WTO terms) but the complication arises if we want to come to some other alternative arrangement as that potentially opens-up the notion of having to continue to pay money to the EU, continue to accept at least some movement of people, etc. So in my simple mind if we were to say to the EU it's WTO terms for access to the Single Market the negotiation actually becomes quite straightforward whereas if we want some sort of affiliate membership of the Single Market - and I can see why we might because of the implications for banking and financial services if we don't - it becomes more complicated. However, as has been mentioned by others, a number of EU partners (most notably Germany) won't want to lose free access to the UK market so personally I think there's room for a sensible deal to be done on Single Market access (to the benefit of both the UK and the EU).

Single Market aside I'm not sure what else is likely to be difficult to negotiate? I can certainly see that the administrative effort of untangling things could be significant but agreeing outcomes with the EU ought not to be too difficult on most things?

[Wills2]

I voted remain, however like many others I accept the decision and want to move on make the best of it and leave.

For me Brexit hasn't started this is bit is the phoney war, the EU has lots of fish to fry at the moment in its own pan and needs a messy disorderly Brexit like a hole in the head.

EU bureaucrats like Tusk etc...can posture and flatter their own egos as much as they like but ultimately national politicians will make the decisions and some real politick will come into play.

What I am fed up of is the utter lack of national consensus from our own major political figures. Once again they are only interested in furthering their own agenda rather than helping the country get the best deal.

My view on the EU ambassador is that there is no point having a quarterback that won't throw the ball were you tell him to place it, so he had to go.

[Dyl]

Originally Posted by Watsey

No real plan ? How do you substantiate that statement ?

Because Ivan Rodgers said so just two days ago. The leaders of the current government didn't even realise it would be illegal to trigger A50 without putting it to parliament. 'Take back control, er, but not that way'

The very fact the biggest contributor to this thread has very little knowledge of what he is talking about re this subject just shows the people who are prepared to shout the loudest seem to be in control at the moment. Most leavers just have this simplistic approach to it, it's going to be very very difficult to untangle us from the E.U. before you even start setting up trade deals with them or anyone else.

I'm sick of the argument about the german motor industry as well, of course it's a market for them, but they can cope without us. If and when the pound starts falling again It might push the prices so high, without even adding the WTO tariffs (If we leave the single market, I don't remember that being on the ballot paper though?), they may struggle to find buyers for them anyway. The motor industry is just a small wheel in this cog.

It's going to cost this country billions and billions of pounds, for what? You're not gonna get exactly what you thought 'you' were voting for, we never do get that. To trade with the E.U. we will still have to abide by their standards and rules, so effectively nothing will change regarding that.

People who are trying to stop or minimise the damage this is causing are not are not moaning because they are 'sore losers' or 'traitors of the country'. On the contrary, quite the opposite. I find the blind optimism of leavers admirable and terrifying in equal measure, but for me the gamble is far too risky, for gains that I don't see.

I just don't understand the panic to do it asap, if it gonna happen lets try and make it at smooth as possible. Instead of jumping off a cliff why don't we give abseiling a go?

[Wills2]

You seem to be screaming as loudly as the Kippers on the other side, saying it's going to cost us billions is just as silly as saying we'll save billions....for example.

It'll be fine, probably not that much different in the end.

BTW we need a bit of controlled inflation the lack of inflation has harmed our economy over the last 8 years, why do you think countries often let their currencies devalue during a down turn? It's to help inflate their way out of the dip.

This is precisely the issue Italy is pressed up against as they can't do what they need to do to remain competitive.

[Dyl]

Originally Posted by Wills2

You seem to be screaming as loudly as the Kippers on the other side, saying it's going to cost us billions is just as silly as saying we'll save billions....for example.

I'm not screaming at all. In fact that billions figure is what this government's treasury has said it's going to cost.

Just making a point how I see it. If anything my last sentence was effectively appealing for calm.

[225]

Interesting read this morning.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...ew-study-says/

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by Dyl

I'm not screaming at all. In fact that billions figure is what this government's treasury has said it's going to cost.

Just making a point how I see it. If anything my last sentence was effectively appealing for calm.

I think most people are calm, no appeals needed.

[Bibbles]

I think this thread pretty much sums up the whole of brexit. No one really knows what is going to happen. We'll try and get what we want. We won't get it as otherwise every other country would leave the EU and try the same thing. Hopefully we'll get something that doesn't cripple the country too badly in the short term and we can get some better deals world wide in the longer term. All in all, I still think we should have remained but now we've rolled the dice lets let the guys in charge see what they can make of the clusterfuck.

[rich100]

Originally Posted by Wills2

You seem to be screaming as loudly as the Kippers on the other side, saying it's going to cost us billions is just as silly as saying we'll save billions....for example.

It'll be fine, probably not that much different in the end.

BTW we need a bit of controlled inflation the lack of inflation has harmed our economy over the last 8 years, why do you think countries often let their currencies devalue during a down turn? It's to help inflate their way out of the dip.

This is precisely the issue Italy is pressed up against as they can't do what they need to do to remain competitive.

This is an interesting point and one articulated by Mervyn King late last year.

The Bank of England has now been striving for years to create a spark of inflation through QE and ZIRP but up until recently has been unsuccessful in doing so.

Following the Brexit vote and the subsequent collapse of the pound they now seem to have got what they've been wishing for. The trick now will be controlling it.

The Italian banking system is a basket case from what I can see and still woefully lacking in capital. I think this presents a real danger to the future of the EU.

[430GH]

I don't believe we will leave the EU

Edited as I may have been wrong about other countries voting to leave the EU but not invoking article 50

[Tengocity]

Originally Posted by Lobb

Interesting.

This is surely against the general consensus and hopefully you will see a change. A report out today shows continued strong expansion in the "service" sector in December.

General consensus of what?

I have a few colleagues trying to move house and what I'm hearing (just today actually) is that the market is pretty dead, but on both desire to buy and sell, so whilst prices aren't going down (due to balanced supply and demand and no forced selling), the underlying volume is way down.

[teaston]

Originally Posted by Lobb

Construction.

The UK construction industry expanded at its fastest rate for nine months in December.

Where I am the four or five bed new builds are selling off plan, they can't build them fast enough.

Unfortunately my work is only on existing properties.

[Rukka]

Originally Posted by Lobb

Construction.

The UK construction industry expanded at its fastest rate for nine months in December.

Where I am the four or five bed new builds are selling off plan, they can't build them fast enough.

Same where I am. All new build stuff selling before it's built and further development of circa 2000 new houses just starting.

When I bought mine (second owner) 6 years ago, the occupier had to move into rented for 6 months as the ground hadn't even been broken for what she was buying.


Not living near me are you?

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by teaston

Unfortunately my work is only on existing properties.

Not good to hear things have slowed down, I hope they pick up soon for you.

[430GH]

Originally Posted by Lobb

A tenner says we will

Your on

[Wills2]

I think (obvious I don't know) that the financial sector as in keeping the city's position and the banks in situ will be the hardest part.

And that will be exploited by the other side.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by Lobb

There was an interesting interview with the Australian ambassador to the UK a few weeks ago. It a nutshell he said the EU are a pain in the arse to deal with (essentially a protectionist club), but there is no necessity to be in the single market. Oh, and unofficial talks are well advanced on trade with the UK.

Brilliant, that'll be a game changer. The billions of pounds worth of trade we can do with the country furthest away from us in the world.

Or maybe free trade agreements with the US and China? Because what we really need is to give China and the US easier access to our markets so they can shut down even more of our uncompetitive manufacturing businesses. The EU might be an oversized bureaucratic nightmare, but some people there are intelligent and the protectionist deals done (or scrapped) were done for a reason. To protect us.

Supporters of leave, like JCB and Dyson have worldwide appeal and will thrive in or out. But in case no one has noticed we're not world leaders in the manufacturing sector and the markets that we can get to the cheapest, which just happen to the the closest to us will always be vital to us.

I work for a company that sends 3,000 trucks a week into the UK. Guess what will happen if they have nothing to take back. Our imports will cost even more to bring into the country.

[Watsey]

Pharma is already globalised, with manufacturing resilience through multinational manufacturing bases accessing local labour markets. Transfer pricing is frequently used to flow profits to the HQ, or other country of choice, so Brexit can work either way - FTSE100 has risen strongly on the back of a weakened Pound after the announcement of Brexit, but not all businesses flow their profits to the UK.

For those corporations that are based here, the opportunities and risks are a very mixed bag. Encouraging to hear that they are currently supportive of the government building a strong negotiating position, but the Boards aren't stupid and rapid execution contingency (or disaster recovery) plans will be ready and waiting.

[Tengocity]

Originally Posted by Lobb

What about pharmaceuticals? I think you'll find we're world class.

World class scientists and research, but we don't manufacture too much here in the UK, in the whole scale of things.

I know lots of companies are also pointing out to the government that continuing to invest so much on clinical research in the UK, when we're then not actually prepared to make the fruits of that labour available to UK NHS patients is not something that can continue.

Most people have no idea how much NHS income is earned from running the clinical trials, and if companies withdraw it will leave a significant (further) hole in the NHS finances.

Not to mention that the EU regulatory authorities are based in the UK and will have to move, taking highly skilled jobs with them

[Tengocity]

Originally Posted by Lobb

It's trading 1000 points higher than it was twelve months ago. Investors are on balance optimistic about UK PLC.

That mainly reflects that the FT100 companies generally are multinational so earnings overseas convert to many more pounds than before and thus delivering greater profits.

That it's full of miners making a rebound has also helped and they mine next to feck all in the UK.

All says more about the global economy than the British economy.

The FT250 (especially minus the FT100) are much less increased, as the they reflect the health of the UK economy.

S

[....,,,,..,,..]

Originally Posted by Alex340

Brilliant, that'll be a game changer. The billions of pounds worth of trade we can do with the country furthest away from us in the world.

Or maybe free trade agreements with the US and China? Because what we really need is to give China and the US easier access to our markets so they can shut down even more of our uncompetitive manufacturing businesses. The EU might be an oversized bureaucratic nightmare, but some people there are intelligent and the protectionist deals done (or scrapped) were done for a reason. To protect us.

Supporters of leave, like JCB and Dyson have worldwide appeal and will thrive in or out. But in case no one has noticed we're not world leaders in the manufacturing sector and the markets that we can get to the cheapest, which just happen to the the closest to us will always be vital to us.

I work for a company that sends 3,000 trucks a week into the UK. Guess what will happen if they have nothing to take back. Our imports will cost even more to bring into the country.

Is that 3000 trucks deliverying shit from Europe or taking U.K. Goods in to Europe?

On imports, one of the biggest issue we have is we have move manufacturing from the UK in to Europe, for example Black and Decker moved to near Czech Republic.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...cession.money1

Following on from what Trump has said Black and Decker should have had a huge surcharge slammed on any goods imported back to the UK.

On China, quite a number of manufacturing companies are now moving back to the U.K. From China, labour costs etc.

A number of manufacturing companies have started recruiting more and upped their training requirements.