[JustChris]

Originally Posted by gangzoom

Just checked the trip was actually 890 miles in total!!! - The £4 was the initial 'charge' to 100% when I did at home before setting off, rest of the trip was all 'free' electricity.

Our car has 'free for life' usage at Tesla Superchargers regardless of usage. Not a single £0 to pay for as long as I own the car. 15K now covered in 13 months, most charging is done at home at a cost of 3p per mile but on holidays I almost always use Tesla Superchargers - After all it is free. The car is a longterm keeper, will ultimately become the family 'hack', looking forwards even when we get an EV with more range this is the car we will use on long trips.....I don't mind stopping every 2-2.5hrs for free fuel versus driving non stop for 5 hours .

Free fuel for life of the car, £0 VED regardless of what the government decides in future, the longer we own the car and the more we drive the 'cheaper' it becomes .

Sounds excellent, what happens at battery replacement time, is this a pre-determined mileage 60,000 I've seen on some cars, maybe not a Tesla. Is that a cost coming up or is that built into whatever deal you have the car on?

[gangzoom]

Originally Posted by JustChris

Sounds excellent, what happens at battery replacement time, is this a pre-determined mileage 60,000 I've seen on some cars, maybe not a Tesla. Is that a cost coming up or is that built into whatever deal you have the car on?

I expect the battery on our Tesla to outlast the rest of the car!!

I had a Nissan Leaf before, that could do 90mile on a 100-0% charge cycle, because of the lowish range I always charged to 100% and often ran it down to sub 5% charge, this really hurts the battery and increases degradation.

On the Tesla I only ever charge to 100% on holidays/long trips, I estimate less than a dozen times so far, and again have only seen sub 10% battery on a small number of times. That couple with the better battery management/chemistry Teslas have, I have no worries about battery degradation. The real life durability of the packs have been shown by high millage users.....In any case the battery(and motor) is warrantied for 8 years/unlimited miles, so again the more you use the car and the longer you keep it the more justifiable the high asking price becomes.

https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla...radation-data/


I *Might* think about upgrading the battery to a large version if Tesla offer it to get some extra range, but than again the current pack has been more than good enough for me even through all the snow/ice we had last winter. The key though really is the Tesla Supercharger network, the rate at which Tesla is opening up new sites all on major routes is fantastic!! Here is the current European coverage, the Red dots are sites in operation and grey are planned sites. The trip to North Italy next year will be a breeze, after than will be a trip around Norway and than maybe Portugal in 2020 (currently Portugal is a bit sparse for EV charging)??

[gangzoom]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Once demand increases, you can bet the power providers will increase charges for electricity too. Even for those that dont use an EV. Yep, the govn't may well incentivise initially (umm like they did with diesel) but unless the electricity industry is vastly changed and highly regulated, they will supply charge for the demand. Yep, at the moment, EV's seem cheap to run at 3p a mile or whatever but my question is still how is the power infrastructure going to adapt so quickly? What about disposal of power packs?

And that matters to the consumer buying now how?? EV are currently less than 1% of the rolling stock on UK roads, probably less than 0.1%, all this 'worry' really is not going to translate to any kind of actual legislation change for years and years.

I've done 40K in EVs already, by the time any actually price increases/changes to road charging comes in I suspect I will covered another 100K, probably 200K.

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by gangzoom

And that matters to the consumer buying now how?? EV are currently less than 1% of the rolling stock on UK roads, probably less than 0.1%, all this 'worry' really is not going to translate to any kind of actual legislation change for years and years.

I've done 40K in EVs already, by the time any actually price increases/changes to road charging comes in I suspect I will covered another 100K, probably 200K.

Yep you're right, fuck it, lets not worry about it now but wait until Dec 31st 2031.

Do you see a huge nation wide investment or infrastructure change at the moment? I.e one that can cater for at least 1 million* new vehicles appearing each year from 2032? 14 years is a long time in politics but a very short time in regards to a large scale engineering programme. As with all Gov't processes, it'll take 5 years and £75 million just to decide who will pay for the potted plants to dress the meeting room that the media will be received in to announce what they plan to do.

I'm assuming you feel quite smug (thats not meant as an insult) at the moment because the cost of running your EV is peanuts and there are plenty of charging points for the 0.1 - 1% on the roads today? Let me know your feelings in 2032.

* Very conservative estimate as the current demand for new vehicles each year at present is in the region of 2 million.

[ossi1]

Originally Posted by gangzoom

And that matters to the consumer buying now how?? EV are currently less than 1% of the rolling stock on UK roads, probably less than 0.1%, all this 'worry' really is not going to translate to any kind of actual legislation change for years and years.

I've done 40K in EVs already, by the time any actually price increases/changes to road charging comes in I suspect I will covered another 100K, probably 200K.

You didn't convince us on the Lexus forum either

As everyone is saying mate, its lack of infrastructure that will hold back full EV for several generations.

[gangzoom]

Originally Posted by ossi1

You didn't convince us on the Lexus forum either

As everyone is saying mate, its lack of infrastructure that will hold back full EV for several generations.

Honestly what do I care about future infrastructure? What already exists lets me do all my trips at virtually no on going cost.

As long as people keep on buying fossil fuels the goverment woudlnt bother changing current tax duties/road pricing. Everyone can make up their own minds, but my wifes Lexus will be making way for a proper EV soon - though to be honest it barely gets driven these days apart from her commute sub 6K miles a year, £10/VED a year, not much to go wrong, so financially makes little sense to swap.

[ossi1]

Originally Posted by gangzoom

Honestly what do I care about future infrastructure? What already exists lets me do all my trips at virtually no on going cost?

Glad to see you still have the same attitude.

There is a whole world of consumers out there who cant charge a car on their driveway or even afford the bloody thing in the first place...but you're allright jack

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by JD6

You clearly have no idea what you're talking about, which is illustrated by the comparisons you make with Brexit and Universal Credit in the post I was replying to. If you can't see the distinction between government projects and private sector ones, you're out of your depth.

It is true that we don't have all of the answers, and we can't be sure that sufficient infrastructure will be in place by 2032, but the direction of travel is clear. There are a lot of competing technologies which are coming in. Given the commercial incentives, between them it looks likely that this can be solved.

LOL

I'm not the one coming out with factious statements about how it will all work, sorry but you're posting utter drivel my friend and seem to be upset that you've been called out on it. I'm the one saying its more complex and difficult than people like you seem to think yet I'm the one that knows nothing, but don't worry as something will happen, a new paradigm etc....

You chose to quote my post and engage so don't be surprised if your sweeping statements that amount to nothing more than adjective filled platitudes are seen for what they are, utter rubbish based upon conjecture and "well something will happen won't it? After all we'll incentivise it!

This is a country that can't even roll out high speed broadband and is taking 30 years to build one railway line to Birmingham and Leeds and whose last national infrastructure project was the motorway network some 50 years ago and you have to go back to the Victorian era for the rest, yet we'll magically transform the fuelling of 30 million cars...yeah right.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by Wills2

LOL

I'm not the one coming out with factious statements about how it will all work, sorry but you're posting utter drivel my friend and seem to be upset that you've been called out on it. I'm the one saying its more complex and difficult than people like you seem to think yet I'm the one that knows nothing, but don't worry as something will happen, a new paradigm etc....

You chose to quote my post and engage so don't be surprised if your sweeping statements that amount to nothing more than adjective filled platitudes are seen for what they are, utter rubbish based upon conjecture and "well something will happen won't it? After all we'll incentivise it!

This is a country that can't even roll out high speed broadband and is taking 30 years to build one railway line to Birmingham and Leeds and whose last national infrastructure project was the motorway network some 50 years ago and you have to go back to the Victorian era for the rest, yet we'll magically transform the fuelling of 30 million cars...yeah right.

You’re clearly not terribly bright and a bit over-sensitive so I’ll do my best to keep it simple.

The roll out of superfast broadband might appear chaotic, but we now have about 95% coverage. It’s actually quite a good example of a project that can be constructed on a modular basis in much the same way as EV charging. The fact that 5% can’t access superfast isn’t great, but as with EV charging if there are still a few gaps, that doesn’t stop the vast majority benefitting.

The comparison with rail lines doesn’t stand up - these are projects that don’t work until they are complete. Having 95% of the work complete still doesn’t provide a useable track.

I know a reasonable amount about the energy market, having invested in it directly for the last 6 years, and talked to some of the people running the projects which gives me the confidence that supply is unlikely to be a problem. Roll out of charging points could be, but a lot will depend on government policy and incentives (there’s that word again!).

New generation capacity is being added pretty rapidly today (2GW per year for renewables for example) so making the assumption that this will continue does not take a huge leap of faith. For intermittentcy we have oil and gas peakers on standby, as well as battery capacity being rolled out.

There are no guarantees that everything will be ready for 2032, but unlike a train track, or Brexit, or Universal Credit, that’s not a major problem if 5, 10, 20% is still missing.

I hope that wasn’t too complicated!

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by JD6

I know a reasonable amount about the energy market, having invested in it directly for the last 6 years, and talked to some of the people running the projects which gives me the confidence that supply is unlikely to be a problem.

They are probably the last people to ask if you want an honest answer. Of course they are going to say its 'all fine and running to plan'.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by Zippee

They are probably the last people to ask if you want an honest answer. Of course they are going to say its 'all fine and running to plan'.

These are the people who have already completed other interconnectors, or other large power projects, so I know their track record. A lot of the supply in the pipeline is pretty vanilla stuff - just larger versions of what’s already out there. They don’t have to invent a whole new technology for this to work so the project risk is actually fairly low.

There are new technology projects out there, like Hinkley C, which look pretty flakey and likely to overrun significantly, or possibly even fail, but large scale gas plants, or offshore wind farms are much more predictable these days.

[teaston]

Fuck EV’s! When all new cars are EV’s i’ll buy a used car that runs on fossil fuels, which can be refillled in a matter or minutes, not hours!! It’s an absolute dead end technology that really needs to be forgotten about.

[gangzoom]

Originally Posted by ossi1

Glad to see you still have the same attitude.

There is a whole world of consumers out there who cant charge a car on their driveway or even afford the bloody thing in the first place...but you're allright jack

Not entirely sure what your on about? My next car after the 335i was going to be a M5 or XJR, yes the Tesla is expensive but not much more so than those cars. Equally the number of brand new Range Rovers/Porshces I see parked in driveways suggest plenty of people can afford EVs and have driveways.

I have never not acknowledged the 'issues' people worry about, but if you can afford a Range Rover or Porsche and have a driveway- which many on here can and have, than looking at an EV as your next car really isn't a bad idea......

Prices will come down, and things like power delivery will be solved, but neither of those things are any thing me (or you) can influence.

[thescouselander]

Originally Posted by Zippee

They are probably the last people to ask if you want an honest answer. Of course they are going to say its 'all fine and running to plan'.

I think you've got to look at the problem end to end. If everyone is going to be charging their cars at home and potentially moving to electric heating (a much less discussed intent) all domestic properties will need to move to 3-phase power. Even if the total supply is ok many local distribution systems just aren't configured for 3-phase - the system round here struggles already and transformer fires and power outages seem to be a common occurrence.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by thescouselander

I think you've got to look at the problem end to end. If everyone is going to be charging their cars at home and potentially moving to electric heating (a much less discussed intent) all domestic properties will need to move to 3-phase power. Even if the total supply is ok many local distribution systems just aren't configured for 3-phase - the system round here struggles already and transformer fires and power outages seem to be a common occurrence.

The widespread move from gas to electric heating is a very long way off I believe - it seems to be beyond the (typically 20-25 year) forecasts I have seen. What is the expected date for that to happen? I would assume that the bulk of that would be into the second half of this century.

In terms of home charging of EVs, while it will clearly raise peak demand to some extent, quite a lot of that can be done at night, when demand is at its lowest. Schemes like Economy 7 were the old way of shifting demand in this way, but smart meters and connected devices should be able to do something better.

[thescouselander]

Originally Posted by JD6

The widespread move from gas to electric heating is a very long way off I believe - it seems to be beyond the (typically 20-25 year) forecasts I have seen. What is the expected date for that to happen? I would assume that the bulk of that would be into the second half of this century.

In terms of home charging of EVs, while it will clearly raise peak demand to some extent, quite a lot of that can be done at night, when demand is at its lowest. Schemes like Economy 7 were the old way of shifting demand in this way, but smart meters and connected devices should be able to do something better.

I still reckon 3 phase is going to become a requirement even ignoring the heating issue. Currently single phase domestic charge points seem to top out at 7kw which is fine for now but as batteries get more capacity that will start to feel slow. Also if a whole street starts drawing 7kw simultaneously and on a continuous basis over night that's a lot of stress on the local network and substations - I'm not convinced they're specced for that sort of usage.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by thescouselander

I still reckon 3 phase is going to become a requirement even ignoring the heating issue. Currently single phase domestic charge points seem to top out at 7kw which is fine for now but as batteries get more capacity that will start to feel slow. Also if a whole street starts drawing 7kw simultaneously and on a continuous basis over night that's a lot of stress on the local network and substations - I'm not convinced they're specced for that sort of usage.

Interesting point about 3 phase. However, I don't think you need to assume that everyone is charging their cars continuously every night, any more than everyone fills up their fuel tank each day or two currently - our 8,400 UK petrol stations couldn't cope with that today.

The average UK car travels around 8,000 miles a year, or 22 miles a day. If they were all electric, that equates to an average need for about 7kWh per car per day, so one hour of charging on a single phase 7kW supply. So we don't need anything like simultaneous charging of all cars on the average street. And since we use far less electricity at night for other purposes, car charging may generally just be able to just absorb the excess.

[gangzoom]

Originally Posted by thescouselander

I still reckon 3 phase is going to become a requirement even ignoring the heating issue. Currently single phase domestic charge points seem to top out at 7kw which is fine for now but as batteries get more capacity that will start to feel slow.

You have to stop thinking about fuelling EVs at home like the way we current do with combustion cars.

Why do you go and put £60-70 worth of fuel into your current car when you go and fill up? Is it because your going to go and drive 400 miles non-stop? - Maybe, but more likely its because going to a petrol station is a pain and even if your only going to be doing 20-30 miles the next day its just easier to fill to the brim rather than come back the next day.

As I've said I've done 40K in various EVs, 95% of my charging is done at home overnight. Recently I managed to get an App to monitor how much charger is added to the car.

Below is just a random week in September, I plug my car in once I get home and un-plug the next day. The car starts charging at 1am and stop when it reaches 80%. As you can see most days I barely add in electricity at an average rate of less than 1KW over the whole time the car is plugged in!!

I actually have a 3phase supply at the house, in theory I could charge the car at 18KW but I haven't bothered to get the appropriate 3 phase meter fitted because I just don't need that kind of power. Our main fuse is 80amps and that is enough to charge x2 EVs overnight (64amps) with more than enough overhead left. At most I'll get an 100amp main fuse upgrade at some point.




Infact at my old house I ran the charger at just 3KW due to the fuse in the garage, 14K in the Leaf and 6K in the Tesla with no problems, ironically it was an demo i3 I had for a few days that caused issues - because there was no way to limit how many KW it drew it kept on trying to pull 6KW from the charger and kept either tripping the main fuse in the house or the car just would stop charging.

For the final night when on holiday in France I plugged in our EV to the mains-supply at the cottage using essentially a fancy travel adaptor. Even at just 2KW overnight it added more than 20% charge and topped the battery up to 100% ready for the long drive home......Fuelling any EV is actually really easy, most of the time our cars are left sitting around doing nothing, which leaves plenty of time to charge, all you need is a standard power supply which is pretty easy to find.

[....,,,,..,,..]

Imagine the impact when towns cities the size of Sheffield, Luton, Liverpool Newcastle plug in their respect cars when get home, all set them for nice charge over night.

Where do we get this extra power from?

Will solar and wind provide enough for small towns and cities to charge up?

Then factor in cities such as Birmingham, Manchester and London all wanting charging from say 1am and finishes when charge (as above).

Most families have two cars, so factor that in to the mix for overnight charging.

The UK power generation system has to take emergency measures when everyone rushes to put kettle on when some major tv thing is on.

To handle this increased future demand, we build shit loads of wind, solar and water power system and hope they work or we build power stations - gas (from fracking), other fossil fuel or nuclear....

Then there is that seasonal variation, imagine over Christmas, fuck me that will be a huge drain.

There really needs to be a higher tax on electric cars to pay for all the changes those drivers require.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by Brigand

Imagine the impact when towns cities the size of Sheffield, Luton, Liverpool Newcastle plug in their respect cars when get home, all set them for nice charge over night.

Where do we get this extra power from?

Will solar and wind provide enough for small towns and cities to charge up?

Then factor in cities such as Birmingham, Manchester and London all wanting charging from say 1am and finishes when charge (as above).

Most families have two cars, so factor that in to the mix for overnight charging.

The UK power generation system has to take emergency measures when everyone rushes to put kettle on when some major tv thing is on.

To handle this increased future demand, we build shit loads of wind, solar and water power system and hope they work or we build power stations - gas (from fracking), other fossil fuel or nuclear....

Then there is that seasonal variation, imagine over Christmas, fuck me that will be a huge drain.

There really needs to be a higher tax on electric cars to pay for all the changes those drivers require.

As mentioned above, on average each car will require about 7kWh per night. There is a fair bit of slack in the system at night currently, when demand drops by about 15GW for around 7 hours:



Instead of turning down/off gas and some other generating capacity overnight as they do currently, they could keep this running. Taking up that 15GW night time slack could provide 7kWh to about 15 million cars. More generating capacity would be needed to cover 30 million EVs, but we have time to add that. It will be a challenge, but it doesn't look impossible.

[JustChris]

/thread

[....,,,,..,,..]

Originally Posted by JD6

As mentioned above, on average each car will require about 7kWh per night. There is a fair bit of slack in the system at night currently, when demand drops by about 15GW for around 7 hours:



Instead of turning down/off gas and some other generating capacity overnight as they do currently, they could keep this running. Taking up that 15GW night time slack could provide 7kWh to about 15 million cars. More generating capacity would be needed to cover 30 million EVs, but we have time to add that. It will be a challenge, but it doesn't look impossible.

Yes but where will that extra generating power come from?

How much is the average fossil fuel power station?
How long do they take to build?
What country do we choose to build them?

Do we build nuclear?
How much do they cost?
What country do we choose to build them?

I wonder how many charging points Birmingham would require?

People think Brexit will fuck the country up.

Going to hard on Electric cars will make Brexit a walk in the park.

Even when we go full electric, unless big polluters such as India, China, Russia, US, etc play the same game it does not matter what we do.