[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by JNW1

If you take a look at the GBP/USD chart you'll see the pound had been sliding against the dollar since about mid-2014; not down every month of course but the trend was heading that way.

Yes it spiked when initially it was thought Remain had won - and then dropped when the Brexit result became known - but if you look at how it's performed over the last couple of years it's not been the dramatic slide you imply; the closing value in January 2018 was, for example, higher than that for January 2016 (which was before the referendum campaign had even got going).

Of course it's slid again recently due to the political situation and the perceived risk of no deal but it will find its right level again eventually; nothing to get too excited about IMO....

I'm not referring to sterling vs dollar, they have their own fuck wit over there playing polictical and economical suicide.

Sterling vs Euro dropped and hasn't risen since. It has been consistently low since the day of the referendum and has shown no signs of recovery.

Someone here, maybe even you, said earlier in the year that the only way it was going was up, and that was at 1.17 to the pound. I remember clearly because I didn't agree and paid my holiday home for this summer in Euros when it hit 1.17. Glad I did now.

Although still not as good as one the summer before the referendum when I paid for it at 1.42 euros to the pound.

And while everyone is splitting hairs on technicalities and what constituted a lie and what was on the ballot paper, does that mean it's ok to say that technically a referendum is only advisory? I mean Cameron said he'd honour it, but hey, what's the odd lie here and there between friends.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by JD6

I would suggest that there were opinions in both directions, as there pretty much always are.

Perhaps but I don't recall anyone suggesting there was much if anything in the way of potential upside in the value of sterling going back to early 2016.

Originally Posted by JD6

The people within banks who make public pronouncements about the future direction of markets (such as the one you linked to) tend to be low level employees (even if they are given inflated client-facing titles) there to generate news and keep the bank’s name in the media. If any of them actually knew what they were doing, they would be trading, and earning a very significant multiple of their income.

A tad cynical but I suspect there's some element of truth in what you say!

Originally Posted by JD6

The only people whose opinions on markets matter within a bank are those who back their views with money rather than words, and the market price reflects the balance of those views. So the value at the time was a reflection of expectations at the time

And I take your point on that as well. However, there is always the argument between technical and fundamentals traders - the former argue the analysis of fundamentals isn't necessary (because the market has already priced-in all relevant information) but there are nevertheless many traders who make a good living analysing fundamentals (and they couldn't do that if the market was perfect). However, to be fair that perhaps applies more to trading individual companies than it does to indices or currencies.

[TodmordenLad]

The favourite finally launches his campaign... Rory Bremner nails it, captures the blustering buffoon perfectly

https://t.co/nJwmVnMvKp

(https://twitter.com/rorybremner/stat...598073344?s=09)

[Bryans69]

I assume, based on this article, that should he win, he will immediate call for a General Election....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/...tish-ally.html

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by Goneinsixtyseconds

Sterling vs Euro dropped and hasn't risen since. It has been consistently low since the day of the referendum and has shown no signs of recovery.

Sterling was trading against the Euro at an average of around 1.27 for most of early 2016 prior to the referendum. I'd concede it's dipped recently because of the on-going political stalemate here but if you go back to the end of April it was trading at around 1.17; yes that's lower than pre-referendum but a reduction of 8% is hardly cataclysmic IMO. The fall between mid-2015 and early 2016 (all of which happened pre-referendum) was even greater but I don't recall anyone worrying overly about that.

Originally Posted by Goneinsixtyseconds

Someone here, maybe even you, said earlier in the year that the only way it was going was up, and that was at 1.17 to the pound. I remember clearly because I didn't agree and paid my holiday home for this summer in Euros when it hit 1.17. Glad I did now.

I don't remember reading that and it certainly wasn't me who made the comment to which you refer. However, on the wider point, I always think it's a bit simplistic to think of a high value of the pound being "good" and a low value being "bad"; an over-valued currency can be bad for the economy just as an under-valued one can. I therefore don't quite get the hysteria surrounding the fall of the pound since the referendum; yes it's a negative when we want to go on holiday abroad - or for businesses that import lots of materials and components - but equally it's an opportunity for those businesses that export a lot. The reality is there are winners and losers when a currency fluctuates and I haven't seen any evidence to show that overall the UK economy has suffered significantly as a direct consequence of the fall in sterling over the last three years.

Originally Posted by Goneinsixtyseconds

And while everyone is splitting hairs on technicalities and what constituted a lie and what was on the ballot paper, does that mean it's ok to say that technically a referendum is only advisory? I mean Cameron said he'd honour it, but hey, what's the odd lie here and there between friends.

The one thing all sides seemed to agree on before the referendum was the result would be respected whatever the outcome. Therefore, to try to play the "it was only advisory" card now - and claim it was all just an expensive opinion poll - is even more ridiculous than wanting to put Boris in prison for stating a figure nobody believed!

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by Bryans69

I assume, based on this article, that should he win, he will immediate call for a General Election....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/...tish-ally.html

Agree, and presumably with a mandate that Brexit means Brexit, even if it is no deal. Be interesting to see how some of the labour supporting but leave voting constituencies take to that - vote BoJo for what they wanted or vote Jezza for something (but who knows what...)

[TodmordenLad]

Originally Posted by Bryans69

I assume, based on this article, that should he win, he will immediate call for a General Election....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/...tish-ally.html

Followed by a hung parliament, most probably .. followed by more chaos and paralysis :

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by Bryans69

I assume, based on this article, that should he win, he will immediate call for a General Election....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/...tish-ally.html

Another great find

Let's see how closely Boris holds to his 'principles'.

[Bryans69]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

Another great find

Let's see how closely Boris holds to his 'principles'.

Thanks. I really should get on with some work....

[JD6]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

Agree, and presumably with a mandate that Brexit means Brexit, even if it is no deal. Be interesting to see how some of the labour supporting but leave voting constituencies take to that - vote BoJo for what they wanted or vote Jezza for something (but who knows what...)

I can't imagine too many Labour voters in those constituencies will be impressed by his plan to raise the higher rate threshold to £80k, which will have no impact on those earning under £50k (i.e. 99% of them!) I guess that they either stick with Labour or go for Farage, who somehow still gets away with this man-of-the-people act.

[1 AKY]

Originally Posted by inkiboo

But I thought all forecasts were nonsense?

Only if they turn out to be wrong

[1966-TR4]

Boris Johnson explains his understanding of the single market and its impact on JIT manufacturing. Unbelievable.

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by JD6

I can't imagine too many Labour voters in those constituencies will be impressed by his plan to raise the higher rate threshold to £80k, which will have no impact on those earning under £50k (i.e. 99% of them!) I guess that they either stick with Labour or go for Farage, who somehow still gets away with this man-of-the-people act.

I dont think its too hard to get above £50k these days, even if the working class north. If the mines were still open there would be a chunk of people there doing it!

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

I dont think its too hard to get above £50k these days, even if the working class north. If the mines were still open there would be a chunk of people there doing it!

Hmm, but the average salary in the UK is way below £50k and that average (which I believe is around £35k) is no doubt skewed by the higher salaries paid in London and the South East (and hence the average in the North will be less).

I also think part of Johnson's plan is to fund some of the tax cut by increased National Insurance contributions which is just giving with one hand and taking away with the other. The only people who'll benefit in full from the tax cut are pensioners with an income of over £50k and, with the best will in the world, they surely can't amount to a significant proportion of the electorate...

[Bryans69]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

I dont think its too hard to get above £50k these days, even if the working class north. If the mines were still open there would be a chunk of people there doing it!

Think quite a few might disagree

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/...k-tax-16407637

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by Bryans69

Think quite a few might disagree

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/...k-tax-16407637

They ignored those over £150k, clearly they are all in that band!

So you voted leave and your options are an old etonian who wants to cut tax for the better off, Jezza and his cronies who might want another vote but will tell the EU that we wont leave unless we get a nice deal, or maybe Farage and his party with only one policy...

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

They ignored those over £150k, clearly they are all in that band!

So you voted leave and your options are an old etonian who wants to cut tax for the better off, Jezza and his cronies who might want another vote but will tell the EU that we wont leave unless we get a nice deal, or maybe Farage and his party with only one policy...

Whilst if you voted remain, your options are the Lib Dems, "Change" UK, or Chuka.

The problem with us remainers is we want more from a party than just a single policy. Hence no Brexit party equivalent. That and the fear of challenging the unassailable democratic right of 52% of the population in 2016 - including my retired parents and all their cronies.

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

Whilst if you voted remain, your options are the Lib Dems, "Change" UK, or Chuka.

The problem with us remainers is we want more from a party than just a single policy. Hence no Brexit party equivalent. That and the fear of challenging the unassailable democratic right of 52% of the population in 2016 - including my retired parents and all their cronies.

Its a mess. Do you reckon we could get Cameron to take a shower and then realise it has all been a dream and we go back to before Cameron made his momentous fuck up...

[Bryans69]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

They ignored those over £150k, clearly they are all in that band!.

I was a bit concerned that including those in the North East earning over £150k might skew the percentages.....

So you voted leave and your options are an old etonian who wants to cut tax for the better off, Jezza and his cronies who might want another vote but will tell the EU that we wont leave unless we get a nice deal, or maybe Farage and his party with only one policy...

Remain options aren't much better. Lib Dems, Tories that mainly want out, and Labour the may or may not want out, bur will screw the economy in the process

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

Its a mess. Do you reckon we could get Cameron to take a shower and then realise it has all been a dream and we go back to before Cameron made his momentous fuck up...

That would be nice. Come back Dave and we all forget that the last four years ever happened.

[Wills2]

I'm quite happy for the 40% rate threshold to rise to 80k it's about time it did it was never meant to hit as many people as it does and the increases in NI contributions have further hit middle earners in the pocket since the introduction of the 40% band.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Sterling was trading against the Euro at an average of around 1.27 for most of early 2016 prior to the referendum. I'd concede it's dipped recently because of the on-going political stalemate here but if you go back to the end of April it was trading at around 1.17; yes that's lower than pre-referendum but a reduction of 8% is hardly cataclysmic IMO. The fall between mid-2015 and early 2016 (all of which happened pre-referendum) was even greater but I don't recall anyone worrying overly about that.



I don't remember reading that and it certainly wasn't me who made the comment to which you refer. However, on the wider point, I always think it's a bit simplistic to think of a high value of the pound being "good" and a low value being "bad"; an over-valued currency can be bad for the economy just as an under-valued one can. I therefore don't quite get the hysteria surrounding the fall of the pound since the referendum; yes it's a negative when we want to go on holiday abroad - or for businesses that import lots of materials and components - but equally it's an opportunity for those businesses that export a lot. The reality is there are winners and losers when a currency fluctuates and I haven't seen any evidence to show that overall the UK economy has suffered significantly as a direct consequence of the fall in sterling over the last three years.



The one thing all sides seemed to agree on before the referendum was the result would be respected whatever the outcome. Therefore, to try to play the "it was only advisory" card now - and claim it was all just an expensive opinion poll - is even more ridiculous than wanting to put Boris in prison for stating a figure nobody believed!

As I said, the economy hasn't suffered massively yet. Exports have been propped up by the drop in Sterling.

But, as you say individuals don't really benefit from it. We are a net importer from the EU and we certainly spend a lot there on holidays as a country.

Business owners get richer, workers get poorer. Do you think people knew that's what they were voting for? I hope so, because there's probably more to come.

If you can split hairs between the definition of a lie and a deliberate half truth, followed by telling people the referendum was completely binary, then I can point out technicalities too.