01-14-2021, 07:03 AM | #67 |
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It's an "interesting" angle to use road deaths as a comparison. We've got masses of data on what happens when millions of people drive tens of thousands of miles each, as that's what we were all doing for decades.
I've not seen the data for what happens when covid runs through a society like ours without restrictions, mainly because that hasn't really happened. I therefore find it hard to draw any comparisons with a number that empirically does exist (road deaths and serious injuries) and one that does not (Covid, unrestricted). Which is why i said that I thought it was a good thing that the majority wish to get vaccinated. That will enable numbers to stay under control as restrictions are progressively lifted. As for personal attitude to risk, I would rather drive thousands of miles than spend an hour in a building containing a high number of people with Covid.
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01-14-2021, 07:33 AM | #68 | |
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I would say that I completly agree with that above, helping to keep numbers under control and think that it is the effort that is required by the indivduals to enable this to happen, some may not agree but that is human nature which is respected, but keep away from my door. The old saying "if you want to catch something, go to hospital" is still relative, past family experience confirms, so I too would rather be driving miles to avoid just that risk. |
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01-14-2021, 07:43 AM | #69 | ||
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Amen to the last part. Driving for me for the most part is relaxing, can be tiring after hours and hours, but shopping during a pandemic is certainly more stressful. |
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01-14-2021, 08:06 AM | #70 |
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No ones touched really on the lack on social distancing and high risk at the vaccine centres so far. This needs sorting out urgently if they want to encourage more people to get the vaccine ..
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01-14-2021, 08:34 AM | #72 | |
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That particular example may also be made worse by telephoto foreshortening. Editors found this extremely useful when attempting to demonstrate that we had 1 human being per square foot of sand on Bournemouth beach, back in the heady liberated days of summer.
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01-14-2021, 08:46 AM | #73 | |
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01-14-2021, 08:54 AM | #74 | ||||
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I agree the lifting on restrictions will be governed by the numbers but I suppose what I'm suggesting is that, based on the data we've seen on the virus so far, it's likely hospital admissions and deaths will start to reduce significantly once those in the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated. If that doesn't happen my theory's blown out of the water but if it does I'd argue the level of infection starts to matter less because most of those who catch the virus will have either little in the way of symptoms or quite possibly no symptoms at all; therefore, I'd be more comfortable with starting to ease restrictions once the vulnerable have been vaccinated. And of course if new evidence were to emerge to show that (say) younger age groups were more vulnerable than first thought then naturally my view would change; I'm certainly not wanting to see people suffer and die, I just want to avoiding everything being locked-down to mitigate what has hopefully become a relatively small risk! |
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01-14-2021, 08:57 AM | #75 | |
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If you choose not to believe that data - and think the effect on younger age groups is being downplayed and they're at a greater risk than is being suggested - that's obviously your prerogative but if that's the case what's making you come to that view? Even if the evidence showed that, for you personally, driving lots of miles was a greater risk to your life than catching Covid? |
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01-14-2021, 09:11 AM | #76 |
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Without wishing to go down a rabbit hole, I don't think you're comparing like with like. The risk of dying in an accident is greatly influenced by how good and safe a driver you are, how good your awareness is, how safe your car is etc. etc., whereas in a building full of people, there's less you can do to minimise the risk of catching Covid and, if you catch it, whether you get ill, seriously ill, or die seems to be pretty random, especially with the new mutations.
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01-14-2021, 09:15 AM | #77 | |
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01-14-2021, 09:19 AM | #78 | |
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We have two clinically vulnerable in the family and they still haven't heard a scooby yet. |
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01-14-2021, 09:22 AM | #79 | ||
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First point: Data is not hard to find for when you catch it eg. Dr Lucy Okell, a co-author of the study from Imperial College London, said: "Although the elderly are by far at the highest risk of dying due to COVID-19, the risk in middle age is still high. For example, we estimate that around 1 in 260 people aged 50-55 years die if infected. I'm 48 so that number is good enough for me. Where there is no data, as I commented, is for number of cases with no restrictions. Now, no restrictions and low take up of vaccine. My chances of catching covid would become high. Call it 100% chance of catching it within 12 months, call it 50%, I don't much care. You're welcome to suggest that other activities are as high risk, but I think you will struggle. Now, if there was a low vaccine take up and restrictions were lifted simply because your high risk groups are now safe, we let loose all the under 50s and something around those numbers above start dying. It's going to be a problem. Which is why it's a good thing that there will be high vaccine take up and that will see the numbers drop and restrictions get lifted. But the numbers have to drop, and stay down, for this to work.
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01-14-2021, 09:24 AM | #80 | |
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You won’t find me amongst them in that scenario even when I am finally happy to get a vaccine. Supermarkets can be horrendous, you have to pick your time to visit strategically! |
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01-14-2021, 09:31 AM | #81 | |
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Some of the news papers did show zoomed in pictures of beaches from certain angles that gave the impression everyone was shoulder to shoulder yet a standard view from the side told a different story, not saying that's the case but if you were trying to show how far people were apart you wouldn't take the picture from that angle.
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01-14-2021, 09:38 AM | #82 | |
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01-14-2021, 09:38 AM | #83 | |
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01-14-2021, 09:43 AM | #84 | |
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01-14-2021, 01:48 PM | #86 |
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There's a lot of questions about the vaccine may not stop people from spreading the virus.
The government describe the vaccine as an 'exit strategy'. However as most of the public will hopefully not get ill (creating more asymptomatic spreaders) after receiving the vaccine, the virus will circulate undetected even more than now. But it'll look OK as the recorded cases/deaths will look low. So for some of those who will not see a benefit from the vaccine it will be a matter of time before they eventually succumb to the virus. Do we need a vaccine that stops the spread just as much as one that protects against the illness? |
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01-14-2021, 02:21 PM | #87 | |
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I am aware that an Interferon Beta trial has started in the UK, but it seems that while great strides have been made in the production of vaccines, we don't appear to have had similar successes in drug treatments. Maybe it's because trials of such are much more difficult or there's some other scientific reason for this that I don't understand, perhaps CajunBMW has an idea. But if we also had drugs that could stop 95% of those with severe symptoms from dying, then we'd be in an even better place. It would be great news for those that either can't have the vaccine or for whom the vaccine didn't work who must be feeling a little left out.
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01-14-2021, 02:45 PM | #88 | |
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Until a sufficient number of people have been vaccinated we have to rely of physical intervention to reduce or prevent transmission, i.e. masks / distancing / washing hands / ventilation.
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