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      02-14-2018, 10:18 AM   #1
kylemacca01
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Are you in neg equity? Whats your OTR vs GFV?

I have just ordered a new 340i touring and specced it really well to a hair under 50k OTR retail price with a gfv of 16k. It feels like after 4yrs there is no way it will be worth that little money but im very prepared for that to be pretty much the case.

Anyway this got me thinking, for anyone here who is in neg equity with your deal coming to an end fairly soon, what does your GFV vs OTR price look like, how far into the deal are you and how deep in the red?
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      02-14-2018, 10:56 AM   #2
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If you've specced it up to nearly 50k I'd imagine that equates to quite a lot of options.

Reality is these are worth little if anything at the end of the term

I'm sure you're not paying list so the actual depreciation will be a lot less, also you dont say what mileage you'll do. But lets say you're paying 40k for the car, 16k after 4 years is 40% which is pretty usual I'd think, especially as it wont be the current model assuming it's a F31

With PCP it's designed so that you're in negative equity right until the end of term so not suprising that many people actually have a shortfall if they want to get out early, again PCP isn't designed for this.
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      02-14-2018, 11:22 AM   #3
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With a couple of exceptions, options add nothing to the GMFV.
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      02-14-2018, 11:27 AM   #4
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Yeah i know options dont and im at 8k miles PA. I was just interested what others were looking at. I figured gfvs may be lower now than they used to be.
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      02-14-2018, 01:19 PM   #5
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435D - list £52k, paid £39k, GFV after 3 years with 8k miles p/a was £23500.

After 2 years and about 13k on the clock it was coming in at £23k on WBAC and same offer for trade in.

Now nearly 3 years and 18k on the clock WBAC offering £20.5k.

BCA are collecting it on Monday as I've reached VT point 33 months into the 36 months of the PCP.
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      02-14-2018, 01:38 PM   #6
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I too have bought a 340i with around a 50k OTR price but have paid about 39k with discount which wasn't too bad but am too worried about depreciation. I hope after 4 years they'll be at around 20k mark but I'm not too sure.
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      02-14-2018, 01:49 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richatha View Post
I too have bought a 340i with around a 50k OTR price but have paid about 39k with discount which wasn't too bad but am too worried about depreciation. I hope after 4 years they'll be at around 20k mark but I'm not too sure.
That could be a tad optimistic for a 4 year old car with a new model that has been out for 2-3 years.
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      02-14-2018, 01:53 PM   #8
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Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richatha View Post
I too have bought a 340i with around a 50k OTR price but have paid about 39k with discount which wasn't too bad but am too worried about depreciation. I hope after 4 years they'll be at around 20k mark but I'm not too sure.
That could be a tad optimistic for a 4 year old car with a new model that has been out for 2-3 years.
What do you think is realistic?
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      02-14-2018, 01:56 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richatha View Post
I too have bought a 340i with around a 50k OTR price but have paid about 39k with discount which wasn't too bad but am too worried about depreciation. I hope after 4 years they'll be at around 20k mark but I'm not too sure.
lol

Try 14-16k with less than average miles.

They sell for 20k at 3 years old.
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      02-14-2018, 01:59 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richatha View Post
I too have bought a 340i with around a 50k OTR price but have paid about 39k with discount which wasn't too bad but am too worried about depreciation. I hope after 4 years they'll be at around 20k mark but I'm not too sure.
Similar story for me. Think we need to accept the gvf is likely to be bang on the value at 4yrs.
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      02-14-2018, 02:00 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeroFx View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by richatha View Post
I too have bought a 340i with around a 50k OTR price but have paid about 39k with discount which wasn't too bad but am too worried about depreciation. I hope after 4 years they'll be at around 20k mark but I'm not too sure.
lol

Try 14-16k with less than average miles.

They sell for 20k at 3 years old.
http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classifi...01712192159182

Admittedly it's 3 years not four but the 3x 335i I have seen on auto trader are around 20-25k
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      02-14-2018, 02:03 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richatha View Post
http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classifi...01712192159182

Admittedly it's 3 years not four but the 3x 335i I have seen on auto trader are around 20-25k
You can buy 1 year old for 26-29k
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      02-14-2018, 03:10 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kylemacca01 View Post
Yeah i know options dont and im at 8k miles PA. I was just interested what others were looking at. I figured gfvs may be lower now than they used to be.
So I am guessing that with such low mileage your car is costing you over £1.00 a mile to run

Not cheap for a £40k car
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      02-14-2018, 03:14 PM   #14
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My 340i was just shy of £53k on a 2 year PCP, 10k miles with a GFV of £24k.

So £29k depreciation in 2 years and over 20k miles.

Except I didn't pay £53k for the car, no longer have any PCP finance and also plan to keep the car for 4-5 years anyway. Shows the depreciation curve though if it drops £29k in the first 2 years and then £8k over the next two...
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      02-14-2018, 03:14 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JLR1969 View Post
So I am guessing that with such low mileage your car is costing you over £1.00 a mile to run

Not cheap for a £40k car
About 80p. Nothing comparable is available for less new.
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      02-14-2018, 03:17 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grant_7 View Post
My 340i was just shy of £53k on a 2 year PCP, 10k miles with a GFV of £24k.

So £29k depreciation in 2 years and over 20k miles.

Except I didn't pay £53k for the car, no longer have any PCP finance and also plan to keep the car for 4-5 years anyway. Shows the depreciation curve though if it drops £29k in the first 2 years and then £8k over the next two...
Well the first year is the big one. The gfv would indicate 29k in first 2 years and 8k in next 2. Your original monthly payments on that pcp must have been enormous.
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      02-14-2018, 03:19 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kylemacca01 View Post
Well the first year is the big one. The gfv would indicate 29k in first 2 years and 8k in next 2. Your original monthly payments on that pcp must have been enormous.
Nope, £390/month.
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      02-14-2018, 03:26 PM   #18
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Nope, £390/month.
Monster deposit then.
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      02-14-2018, 03:31 PM   #19
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£10k.

The plan was to buy the car all along.
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      02-14-2018, 03:37 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeroFx View Post
You can buy 1 year old for 26-29k
Haven't checked Autotrader but on the BMW AUC website there are only 8 F31 340i's listed at up to 1 year old and none of them are advertised at under £30k; therefore, if you can find one for £26k I suspect it will either have done a few miles and/or be relatively low spec.

If you look at F31 335d's at the same age there are a few below £30k but they're mostly £29k plus (so good as £30k really). If you want something like a panoramic roof (which personally I would on an F31) there are again none below £30k and many are advertised at closer to mid-30's (which isn't much less than you'd pay for the equivalent car brand new post-discount).

Admittedly these are all advertised prices and dealers may well move on those to shift stock; however, unless you catch them chasing quotas at the end of a quarter I seriously doubt a decent spec 1 year old F31 340i/335d will retail for as little as £26k with a main dealer.
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      02-14-2018, 04:23 PM   #21
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Donít think Iíd be buying a 50k 3 Series now with the new model very much needed and out soon. Itís showing itís age imo.

Cheap 1 year lease to keep you going?
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      02-14-2018, 05:53 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JNW1 View Post
Haven't checked Autotrader but on the BMW AUC website there are only 8 F31 340i's listed at up to 1 year old and none of them are advertised at under £30k; therefore, if you can find one for £26k I suspect it will either have done a few miles and/or be relatively low spec.

If you look at F31 335d's at the same age there are a few below £30k but they're mostly £29k plus (so good as £30k really). If you want something like a panoramic roof (which personally I would on an F31) there are again none below £30k and many are advertised at closer to mid-30's (which isn't much less than you'd pay for the equivalent car brand new post-discount).

Admittedly these are all advertised prices and dealers may well move on those to shift stock; however, unless you catch them chasing quotas at the end of a quarter I seriously doubt a decent spec 1 year old F31 340i/335d will retail for as little as £26k with a main dealer.
F31 is not really a desirable car and thats why stock is low in AUC. Limited stock = dealers price gauging due to lack of competition from other dealers.

F32/F30 far more desirable = loads of stock in the AUC from BMW HQ and Ex Demo's which means more accurate values for a given age.

Also nobody gives a shit how well its specced up by the time its 3-4 years old. So residuals are barely any different than a base model so all those options are a total loss.

There is not a chance in hell you will get more than 25k-28k for a private sale of that car at 1 year old. For no other reason than dealers have better finance options and you would need to find someone who can afford the car and want that specific model. I wouldnt put my reg in WBAC for fear of heart attack put it that way. If you are paying the 450 quid a year tax too then god knows what people are going to do to residuals when they a faced with the same tax as a V10 from 2016.

Im tempted to keep my car for 36 months to reclaim the 6k a year from expenses which means ive lost very little and at the end get a free car. The depreciation is shocking.

https://usedcars.bmw.co.uk/vehicle/2...d-cb4952b1d317

A yellow one sold for below 26k the other day as its now gone and was highly specced with 5k miles!

There are F31's a year old for 25k on there now. WBAC Trade in 19k!!!

Last edited by ZeroFx; 02-14-2018 at 06:07 PM..
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