[MacklinUSOB]

Sucks to see them go, but all good things come to an end. In the not so distant future we'll be having this same discussion with combustion engines. For all the same reasons MT is going away, so will those.

In that situation the advice will be the same, buy used and hold onto it. I'll be buying an MT Cayman or 911 to keep for weekend drives, we'll see what can be mustered for a fun daily.

[hon2bmw]

Originally Posted by pjkbrit

Tesla the company will go BK so watch out if you think you'll need the warranty ....?and you WILL be needing it.

They may, though I'm pretty sure for the year so far they've outsold/delivered (meaning not including pre-orders) more vehicles in the US than Audi and Mercedes, came within 1,500 units of BMW, and....mother of god... posted a profit this past quarter as well.

[pjkbrit]

Not a real profit.... very manipulated numbers and regulatory credits. The 10Q tells it like it is... next quarter the losses will return and 2019 could be really tough...tax breaks expire.

[upsidedownfunnel]

Originally Posted by Sweeney921

Petition signed, but unfortunately the decision makers at BMW NA have probably made their minds up by now. Production has started, so it's likely too late for them to turn back.

It's never too late. Other G20s have a manual and the G80 M3/M4 will have a manual (at least the M4). So mechanically, they have everything they need to retrofit a manual transmission into the 330i or the M340i. If by some miracle they decide to, they could bring it back with minimal effort (except maybe regulations and crash testing). It's highly unlikely, but certainly technically feasible at any time they want.

[IK6SPEED]

This is why they will try to make as few manuals as possible.

Fleet mileage +3 mpg per vehicle to meet Federal Fleet Guidelnes.

That’s almost a 15% increase which is HUGE for their fleet mileage.

Bye Bye Manual

[LuisBoston]

Originally Posted by hon2bmw

They may, though I'm pretty sure for the year so far they've outsold/delivered (meaning not including pre-orders) more vehicles in the US than Audi and Mercedes, came within 1,500 units of BMW, and....mother of god... posted a profit this past quarter as well.

I agree - it's a possibility but their technology is also the future. Dragging dinosaurs into the future is extremely difficult and when there is a seismic shift in technology, giants can and have fallen. Witness GE.

GM / Ford / VW etc. are all in trouble as Tesla figures its game out.

I'd give it 50/50 that either GM or Tesla are around in 30 years.

[MacklinUSOB]

Originally Posted by LuisBoston

I agree - it's a possibility but their technology is also the future. Dragging dinosaurs into the future is extremely difficult and when there is a seismic shift in technology, giants can and have fallen. Witness GE.

GM / Ford / VW etc. are all in trouble as Tesla figures its game out.

I'd give it 50/50 that either GM or Tesla are around in 30 years.

I agree with you, it's going to be a sink or swim market. There will undoubtedly be some attrition.

Trouble is, Tesla had YEARS head start to get its game together and grow large enough to obtain the manufacturing capabilities and efficiency of the larger brands. Now that edge is gone and their "$35,000" car costs $38,000 to manufacture. In comparison VW group is developing both a premium and economy EV platform which will begin production within the next year and will have far greater margins and international saturation right off the bat. That's just one of many giants playing in this game all the while less and less people can afford to buy a new car.

I like their cars and I like what they have done to push thick headed execs at other companies toward a greener future. They have their place in history, we'll have to see about their place in the market as this all unfolds.

[Michael Schott]

Originally Posted by upsidedownfunnel

Uh, there is no manual Alfa, Jaguar (except for the F Type), C class or IS anymore. There was a lot of talk about the XE but that never happened. The C class dropped it a few years ago, as did the IS.

I'm sure a lot of people here are the ones that actually do buy the manuals, so I'm not sure why you're talking down to us. There aren't many options for us anymore. The only RWD sport sedans with a manual are the ATS-V, A4 and 3 series which are all going away now. I had a Chevy SS, but that is obviously dead too now.

Before I get too old, I might just drive a Civic Type R for a few years. Seems like that is the most fun you can have for under $50k. I was going to get a G80 M3, but I have doubts about that now since the executive seemed to indicate only the M4 would be available with a stick.

Yes I know. The “oh wait” in my post is the clue. Like: oh wait, none of these offer a MT so why single out BMW.

[movietub]

Just imagine you're running BMW...

You can see that in most regions manual sales are, without you wishing it, lower than ever before. You have a room full of accountants pointing out that sales of MT's are now so low, that you would in fact save £36m a year by switching to AT only across most lines, and thus simplifying production and reducing after sales costs. You know that the any decision other than to phase out MT quickly is just going to cost you more, and reduce profits.

So once you're fully appraised of these facts, what do you do? See a change.org petition for manuals and keep making them? Hmm..

Add to the above the knowledge that the current generation of 'in development' IC cars is effectively the last, and that moving forwards to electric, no cars will have MT or AT, and it become's very difficult for the decision makers to worry about a minority of die hard MT enthusiasts.

So nothing against those that do still insist on MT, but that petition could have 10m people sign it and it still wouldn't change the facts and figures that we can be sure BMW management have to hand when they make these decisions.

[paul e]

I’m not going to disagree but I will point out that the manual transmission was a $0 dollar option. Back when the auto was optional it was a lot of extra money....so anytime the manual was specified the $0 cost meant that BMW was making money on the uninstalled automatic which is a lot more expensive than any manual.

[movietub]

Originally Posted by paul e

I’m not going to disagree but I will point out that the manual transmission was a $0 dollar option. Back when the auto was optional it was a lot of extra money....so anytime the manual was specified the $0 cost meant that BMW was making money on the uninstalled automatic which is a lot more expensive than any manual.

That's not what it means though. Or probably isn't...

We have no idea of the true cost to BMW of offering an MT option when such a small % of 3/4/5/6 drivers want such a thing. It could be that the MT hardware is 1/2 the price of the AT but the cost of simply offering an option results in the MT final costs per car sold being several times that of the AT.

The reality is, whatever the numbers, that it's become clear not enough demand exists for MT now for it to be viable for BMW to maintain the option. This works the other way round for manufacturers whose customers want/expect mostly MT, they either don't offer an AT or if they do, it's an over-priced cobbled together POS that has a 20 year old slush-matic AT box shoehorned in. Or some crappy CVT.

Whatever logic we can try to apply to BMW's decisions, we have to accept that they have a global market overview that we can't see, and that they will have considered everything we have, and everything we wouldn't think to consider and the final decision will be led by the black and white facts and figures.

[BEAR-AvHistory]

BMW has one of the highest profit margins in the industry. If they thought the 6MT would materially contribute to the bottom line they would offer it.

Reality is they are only now protecting some niche product lines with the 6MT but as far as the overall corporate direction (read profits) is going the 6MT is terminal.

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by RichardSwe

Besides, go to Europe and rent any current BMW. It will be a manual transmission 98% of the time. The same is true of most any vehicle rental in Europe - VW, Skoda, BMW, Peugeot, etc. I have rented all these in the last very few years. I've been there, done that. This is completely OK with me! Renters who really want an auto transmission can rent one; it will be a high end vehicle.

So, why can't BMW simply give USA enthusiasts the same option they produce en masse in Europe?

Will you ignore actual figures that prove the point?

Manuals are just not that big in Europe and Rest of World as you suggest.

619 vs 17,000 (or about 3.5%)

[donkey]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

Will you ignore actual figures that prove the point?

Manuals are just not that big in Europe and Rest of World as you suggest.

619 vs 17,000 (or about 3.5%)

I think you quoted the wrong guy - I didn't say anything about that

I'll respond to that point anyway - some areas of Europe have a much higher percentage of manuals compared to the average in the US. Ever been to Vienna?

That's not to say that it can't average out. I don't dispute the picture you posted, despite it being based on data from a US-based registry for M owners and not in any way representative of actual BMW international sales figures.

Also, using an F80 alone isn't a great example here as some parts of Europe will have smaller models with much smaller engines (under 2.0L) due to gas prices and regulations. Try finding data on a 316i or similar.

If the take-rate for manual transmissions in Europe was as low as it is here in the US, surely BMW would no longer offer them in Europe as well.

Maybe RichardSwe can chime in from here.

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by donkey

I think you quoted the wrong guy - I didn't say anything about that

I'll respond to that point anyway - some areas of Europe have a much higher percentage of manuals compared to the average in the US. Ever been to Vienna?

That's not to say that it can't average out. I don't dispute the picture you posted.

Also, using an F80 alone isn't a great example here as some parts of Europe will have smaller models with much smaller engines (under 2.0L) due to gas prices and regulations. Try finding data on a 316i or similar.

Maybe RichardSwe can chime in from here.

.

Originally Posted by RichardSwe

Besides, go to Europe and rent any current BMW. It will be a manual transmission 98% of the time. The same is true of most any vehicle rental in Europe - VW, Skoda, BMW, Peugeot, etc. I have rented all these in the last very few years. I've been there, done that. This is completely OK with me! Renters who really want an auto transmission can rent one; it will be a high end vehicle.

So, why can't BMW simply give USA enthusiasts the same option they produce en masse in Europe?

[movietub]

It hardly matters what figures we dig up. BMW can literally count them off the production lines and will know precisely where each car is destined.

That's why I keep saying.. it's pointless to think they're wrong when they have a knowledge on the subject that none of us could ever have. I'm sure there must be senior BMW people registered in this forum too... But only the highest level management will have access to data from all contributing concerns when it comes to decision making - and those people aren't about to join a fan forum to start a debate about it!

BMW are a continuous huge success story. They have managed to grow a niche brand to mainstream and somehow also managed to still charge a premium. The two most salient facts are that BMW are proven to make good decisions, and also they have more data on the subject than we could ever have. None of us are therefore in a suitable position to argue against the MT choice, let alone petition against it.

And seriously, BMW and every other manufacturer is now forced to focus on electric in the very near future. All traditional transmissions are about to cease. What's the point in making a stand for MT now, when the future is going to make MT effectively impossible in anycase?

[3erMan]

Originally Posted by upsidedownfunnel

I'm sure a lot of people here are the ones that actually do buy the manuals, so I'm not sure why you're talking down to us. There aren't many options for us anymore. The only RWD sport sedans with a manual are the ATS-V, A4 and 3 series which are all going away now. I had a Chevy SS, but that is obviously dead too now.

Before I get too old, I might just drive a Civic Type R for a few years. Seems like that is the most fun you can have for under $50k. I was going to get a G80 M3, but I have doubts about that now since the executive seemed to indicate only the M4 would be available with a stick.

With the recent news that the next M3 and M4 models will have a "Pure" trim level with reduced output and a MT, it makes me wonder whether the new 440i RWD will be available with a MT. I know the new 340i doesn't in the U.S. Anyone know?

If not, I would only consider an M240i or something other than a BMW. But I know I'm unusual in that way. Just gotta row my own and play with that clutch pedal for me to have fun!

[Dave turbo]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

This is why they will try to make as few manuals as possible.

Fleet mileage +3 mpg per vehicle to meet Federal Fleet Guidelnes.

That’s almost a 15% increase which is HUGE for their fleet mileage.

Bye Bye Manual

I get much better mpg with a manual. With a manual, I only drive fast when I specifically want to. Otherwise, I upshift to 6th gear as early as possible without lugging the engine. With an automatic, I just step on it.

They should have a manual for the 320i. Instead, they figure that economical drivers drive diesels so only the G20 diesels have an available manual.

Before I was thinking of getting a G20. Since there will probably be no manual, I plan to keep my F30 much longer and maybe get a H30, or whatever the next 3 series is after the G20. I figure that I have to keep my F30 for 8 more years if I want to get a 2nd year model of the H30 or whatever its called.

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by Dave turbo

I get much better mpg with a manual. With a manual, I only drive fast when I specifically want to. Otherwise, I upshift to 6th gear as early as possible without lugging the engine. With an automatic, I just step on it.

BMW EPA MPG disagrees with you and that is what Fleet average is taken from.

[rjd_F30]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

BMW EPA MPG disagrees with you and that is what Fleet average is taken from.

Manual cars definitely used to be more efficient than their automatic counterparts, like a good long time ago when autos were far less developed than they are now, but the tables have turned in modern times, as you pointed out.

[BMR_CK]

Manual transmission? They are looking to remove the manual steering wheel. Autonomous vehicles.....

[floydarogers]

Originally Posted by pjkbrit

Just bought a 340zhp... only 100 made with this package. They are all manual. The dealer grabbed my 335 6MT trade in... told me he has people in line waiting for a 6MT used 335!
Makes zero sense to me that G20 will be all auto when rest of world will get 6MT. So what if the take rate is low... they make them anyway, costs nothing to make it a special order item at the very least.
I have never bought a new car in my life... pretty certain I won’t again, but the 340 had the best manual tranny I have ever driven!

It costs a minimum of $5,000,000 to certify a car for sale in the USA/CA. While a speciality car like an M3/M4 can afford another $5,000 or so in price, a 330i or even a 340i can't with manual can't compete in it's class with a sticker that much higher.