[DaveA]

EDITED TO ADD

My post assumes that we would leave the EU with a deal (or revoke Art 50) and, therefore, the existing EU trading arrangements will hold for the time being. As one of the commenst mentions, if we leave without a deal, then there would likely be import tariffs to add.

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For what its worth, the base price of the M340i on the Canadian “build your BMW” is CAD $59,150, which is CAD $8,000 above the base price of the 330i xDrive there.

Assuming both that this is without sales taxes, and that BMW have no intention of making prices and price differences between models, both here and there, significantly different, then I reckon all this might suggest a base price for the M340i here (inc 20% UK VAT) of something like £44/46k... Maybe a touch more incl delivery, road fund licence etc etc...

So maybe expect cars here (depending on spec) to be in the £46k to £60/65k rage… ???

Just my guess… Wonder what others think...

Canadian Site Link

...

[dopper99]

Don't forget to add another £3/4K in for "brexit-tax"

[Nick340]

Originally Posted by dopper99

Don't forget to add another £3/4K in for "brexit-tax"

Don't think the UK is suggesting they'd charge tariffs on no deal Brexit.

Expect BMW will be desperate not to mess with UK sales, as their 4th biggest market: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-of-bmw-group/

Particularly in light of this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...elow-last-year

The automaker said that its pretax profit would be down by more than 10% this year. In response, the company is stepping up a savings program with plans to cull certain models and hold its workforce steady.

Shares of the automaker fell as much as 5.9% as a result of the announcement.

[JNW1]

I'm thinking a standard spec M340i needs to be pitched at no more than mid to high £40k's (so £47k/£48k max); if the price for the basic car starts with a 5 it's going to look expensive (overpriced?) once a few options are added IMHO.

If I was looking at one of these - and depending on what we do with my other half's car I might - I think I'll wait until next summer so a) I can have a test drive before ordering and b) there might be some decent deals/discounts being offered by then.

[DaveA]

Originally Posted by Nick340

Don't think the UK is suggesting they'd charge tariffs on no deal Brexit.

I think they said the default tariff would be 10% on auto imports... In a no-deal... So, yup, in that case it would be a 10% increase on any new imports...

[DaveA]

Originally Posted by dopper99

Don't forget to add another £3/4K in for "brexit-tax"

Good point, yes... £50k to £70k if adding import duty is required and whole cost passed on to consumers...

[Nick340]

Originally Posted by DaveA

I think they said the default tariff would be 10% on auto imports... In a no-deal... So, yup, in that case it would be a 10% increase on any new imports...

That would be daft.

https://mises.org/wire/what-hard-brexit-could-mean-uk

[DaveA]

Originally Posted by Nick340

That would be daft.

Regardless of daft or otherwise, that is what they have said they will do... As I understand it, car manufacturing in the UK would be considered a protected industry and, therefore, any imports from the EU would be subject to tarriffs... and I believe 10% was the rate quoted..

[DaveA]

Originally Posted by JNW1

I'm thinking a standard spec M340i needs to be pitched at no more than mid to high £40k's (so £47k/£48k max); if the price for the basic car starts with a 5 it's going to look expensive (overpriced?) once a few options are added IMHO.

I think you are about right, here... Unless there's a "no deal", that is...

Originally Posted by JNW1

If I was looking at one of these - and depending on what we do with my other half's car I might - I think I'll wait until next summer so a) I can have a test drive before ordering and b) there might be some decent deals/discounts being offered by then.

Unless a car is already here, in the UK, I'm basically waiting now until we know more about brexit... Order a car now with a 12/14 week lead in, and we go out in the next couple of months without a deal, it'll cost you 10% more (albeit you may have a get out)... Really, ordering a factory order now is a gamble (unless you have the cash to spare)...

My default is to refinance mine in a few month's time when the PCP is up... See where we go...

[lethbridge]

I would have thought the X3 pricing would be a good reference point. The difference between the X3 20d SE and the M40i is £13,000. Map that onto the 320d SE pricing (£36,800 - noting £4k difference between 320d & X3 20d) and you get £49,755 for the M340i. My guess is a range of £48k-£50k seems likely. Don't forget the 330d M Sport is £41,430 and it is going to be significantly more than that. That pricing still puts it probably £15k inside the starting price of the G80 M3 so seems about right...

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by lethbridge

I would have thought the X3 pricing would be a good reference point. The difference between the X3 20d SE and the M40i is £13,000. Map that onto the 320d SE pricing (£36,800 - noting £4k difference between 320d & X3 20d) and you get £49,755 for the M340i. My guess is a range of £48k-£50k seems likely. Don't forget the 330d M Sport is £41,430 and it is going to be significantly more than that. That pricing still puts it probably £15k inside the starting price of the G80 M3 so seems about right...

I think the X3 vs G20 3er gives a great guide and agree 48-50k is the likely list with the 10% import duty it would flow through to 53-55k retail list (because although that is applied to import cost the margin and VAT is then added on to the higher base price).

[dopper99]

Originally Posted by Wills2

I think the X3 vs G20 3er gives a great guide and agree 48-50k is the likely list with the 10% import duty it would flow through to 53-55k retail list (because although that is applied to import cost the margin and VAT is then added on to the higher base price).

I agree with those figures - and if you add a few choice options you'd be up to around £60K easily.
Take off the usual 20% discount that will be available after a few months and you are back down to around £48K.
But that will be around £5K deposit and £600 monthlies, give or take - not cheap compared to a F3x.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by dopper99

I agree with those figures - and if you add a few choice options you'd be up to around £60K easily.
Take off the usual 20% discount that will be available after a few months and you are back down to around £58K.
But that will be around £5K deposit and £600 monthlies, give or take - not cheap compared to a F3x.

I assume you meant back down to £48k after discount rather than £58k?! However, even then you're right, it will look expensive compared to a decent spec F3x 340i (which was probably around £10k cheaper post-discount).

That said, I suppose what will be equally important is how the price compares to competitors such as the S4 and C43. The S4 is still out of production temporarily due to the emission regulation changes but the C43 is available to configure and the list price appears to start at £50k even for the basic saloon; if you want an estate with the Premium Plus Pack it's over £56k and even at that you're still getting Artico (plastic) seats and will need to find another £795 for leather! Historically Mercedes haven't offered the same level of discounts as BMW so perhaps the M340i will still look competitive even with a list price of around (or even slightly above) £50k?

[JustChris]

I think with discount, people will be ordering these high £40's to mid £50s for big spec.

Ouch.

[DaveA]

Originally Posted by JNW1

I assume you meant back down to £48k after discount rather than £58k?! However, even then you're right, it will look expensive compared to a decent spec F3x 340i (which was probably around £10k cheaper post-discount).

Yes... My current 340 was precisely that 48/38 pre/post discount... and it was a pretty high spec (although not maxed out, by any means)...

I think they might price a little tighter than some think (but, hey, we're going to see later in the year, right) and I am figuring, like for like, the G20 M340i will likely list at about plus £7.5k to £10k compared to the F30 340...

[DaveA]

Originally Posted by JustChris

I think with discount, people will be ordering these high £40's to mid £50s for big spec.

Ouch.

Ouch indeed... You can just feel the cost of car ownership has taken a bump this last year or so...

Now, for what I have paid these last few years, I would need to step down from the 340... As I want to reduce the costs, as well, it is getting very tricky..

Anyhoo, not making any decisions now for at least two months... Unless a car is sitting here now, this brexit lark is now going to dictate a lot of forward thinking... I mean, if you order a car now with a 12/14 week lead time, it's just playing Russian Roulette with the price...

[JustChris]

Originally Posted by DaveA

Ouch indeed... You can just feel the cost of car ownership has taken a bump this last year or so...

Now, for what I have paid these last few years, I would need to step down from the 340... As I want to reduce the costs, as well, it is getting very tricky..

Anyhoo, not making any decisions now for at least two months... Unless a car is sitting here now, this brexit lark is now going to dictate a lot of forward thinking... I mean, if you order a car now with a 12/14 week lead time, it's just playing Russian Roulette with the price...

Personally I wouldn't ever be ordering a factory spec again, with just a little flexibility in needs there are better bargains to be had Pre-Reg and stock cars.

I totally appreciate this isn't for everyone though. I sense a fair few of een us forum car nuts are fed up of ever increasing prices. The base 911 currently for sale (the Carrera S for some reason, no idea where the non S has gone) is an eye watering £93k....entry car!

The industry is bloated with tech and options and safety, no wonder the next gen can't be arsed with ownership. A year of Ubers probably makes sense vs initial outlay, buying, taxed to death, insurance etc etc#

Grim.

[RoShambolt]

Originally Posted by DaveA

Yes... My current 340 was precisely that 48/38 pre/post discount... and it was a pretty high spec (although not maxed out, by any means)...

I think they might price a little tighter than some think (but, hey, we're going to see later in the year, right) and I am figuring, like for like, the G20 M340i will likely list at about plus £7.5k to £10k compared to the F30 340...

I'm pretty much exactly the same plus or more bus a couple of hundred when it was ordered.

I know it's a new model, but have a feeling list price with similar spec will be easily into the mid 50s with a limited early discount(if any).

Bar the customer service issues and minor warranty work I have needed, it's one of the better cars I've had and it's my first BMW.

I think the early pricing and political climate at the minute will cause a few 340i owners to hold on to them. I know I will be, it's just hit two years old and 13k so plenty of life in it yet.

Of course I will be watching from a far for any changes in the situation, the next shocker might be the M3 pricing.

[goodbyalfa]

Originally Posted by DaveA

Ouch indeed... You can just feel the cost of car ownership has taken a bump this last year or so...

Now, for what I have paid these last few years, I would need to step down from the 340... As I want to reduce the costs, as well, it is getting very tricky..

Anyhoo, not making any decisions now for at least two months... Unless a car is sitting here now, this brexit lark is now going to dictate a lot of forward thinking... I mean, if you order a car now with a 12/14 week lead time, it's just playing Russian Roulette with the price...

Interesting that you car history and MPG history is almost exactly the match for me!
Much as we would all like to pay less monthly, there are always going to be incremental increases related to inflation. i.e. If you started at £400/m (based on 2.5% inflation for 4 yrs) your next PCP would be £440. It's only going one way. I'm up to £480/m next so I suppose in 3/4 years time it will be well north of 500...

[Rich9600]

Originally Posted by goodbyalfa

Interesting that you car history and MPG history is almost exactly the match for me!
Much as we would all like to pay less monthly, there are always going to be incremental increases related to inflation. i.e. If you started at £400/m (based on 2.5% inflation for 4 yrs) your next PCP would be £440. It's only going one way. I'm up to £480/m next so I suppose in 3/4 years time it will be well north of 500...

I think there are a few us us in a similar boat here. I'm 2.5 years into a 4 year PCP on my 340i Touring. So, watching with interest and wondering about owning this car rather than the PCP hamster wheel. But, in September I'll be paying for warranty and connected drive. So, £60 ish a month more anyway...

However, having recently read the Parker's review it looks like option packs are the new way forward as Mini has gone already.

We last month changed my wife's car. Mini Cooper 3dr to Mini Cooper S 5dr. PCP went up by £50 per month.

Though, a standard Cooper would have been a similar increase. 4 years inflation and pound devaluation etc.

The way the new packs planned out the new model Cooper would have been almost the same cost as the Cooper S that had a better standard spec. So, a M340i may have a better base spec and have many common boxes pre-ticked. Like M Sport Plus may be mostly standard M340i trim etc.

Thinking PCP again, base spec is your fried as this seems to have a greater impact on GFV than options. Back to the mini, the same spec Cooper had a GFV £3k less than the Cooper S. So, a M340i may have a notable GFV hike over the 'bulk' models.

Just some hopeful musings...

[DaveA]

Originally Posted by JustChris

Personally I wouldn't ever be ordering a factory spec again, with just a little flexibility in needs there are better bargains to be had Pre-Reg and stock cars.

My problem is that damn privacy glass that I would never have on a car out of choice, which puts me the opposite to about 99% of the car-buying public and trying to find one in stock close to my spec that does not have it... and, for some reason, you never really see all the drive assist stuff that I do want in stock cars, unless it comes as standard... Fickle, I know...

Originally Posted by JustChris

I totally appreciate this isn't for everyone though. I sense a fair few of een us forum car nuts are fed up of ever increasing prices. The base 911 currently for sale (the Carrera S for some reason, no idea where the non S has gone) is an eye watering £93k....entry car!

Aye, my GT3 was £95k with spec, in 2010 and a Carerra then would have started about £70...

I called into the Porsche place near where I live now (in the NE) and it was like a ghost town... only about 20% of the service bays occupied... nobody in there.. a complete opposite to me old dealer int he NW (Bolton)...

Originally Posted by JustChris

The industry is bloated with tech and options and safety, no wonder the next gen can't be arsed with ownership. A year of Ubers probably makes sense vs initial outlay, buying, taxed to death, insurance etc etc#

Grim.

Well, interesting that you mention that, but there's a hobby horse of mine called "the future of personal mobility"... Where some interesting home truths will have to be faced in the coming years (what we are seeing now is nothing compared to what I think is coming)..... and I'll shut up before the whole forum jumps on me...

[DaveA]

Originally Posted by RoShambolt

I think the early pricing and political climate at the minute will cause a few 340i owners to hold on to them. I know I will be, it's just hit two years old and 13k so plenty of life in it yet.

Well, right now, with all the uncertainty in the coming months, and the likely cost of replacing mine will mean I shall be refinancing and holding on to mine... For the time being at least...

Originally Posted by RoShambolt

Of course I will be watching from a far for any changes in the situation, the next shocker might be the M3 pricing.

High 60's minimum, in my humble opinion... The M4 already starts at about £10k more than a Cayman S base price... You can stick a reasonable spec on the Cayman for the difference...