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      01-04-2017, 12:22 PM   #1
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Brexit- How do we think it's going?

It's been a while since this has been discussed, and since the old petrol v diesel debate has come around again I thought I'd see if we can get this one going...

Joking aside, it's quite a few months now since the decision was made, and things just don't seem to be moving along particularly well as I see it.

What's others take on this?

My own thoughts are that the Brexiteers all have differing viewpoints on what we're trying to get out of this, and hence no one has a clue what our objectives are. IDS has boiled it down to "To leave the EU"... glad we've got that sorted.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38505532

Also, everyone seems to be an expert on what can and can't be done, and how to do it, but there seems to be little real desire on anyone's part to go out and do it.

I am bias as I did vote Remain, but I now that the decision has been made I am keen to see us maximise whatever the upsides are, nevertheless, the "Brexit team" aren't exactly filling me with a high degree of optimism in their competence, and their ability to alienate anyone in the civil service with the experience and relationships to get a good outcome isn't going to help either.

Most of the options that I hear about sound little like improvements to me, and I fear we are going to end up with no influence, but still paying the EU a load of money for market access, and still end up letting most folk come and go as they please. So in other words, a lot of effort for bugger all gained, and an awful lot lost.
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      01-04-2017, 12:42 PM   #2
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It is a bit of a fiasco, not helped by those determined to remain in the EU and looking to drag things out with legal challenges or like the SNP as a political whipping stick against the UK government.

There is also too much being pushed about having open debates in parliament on what deals we are looking for, yeah great method of getting what you want.

Then there is the appearance that those who voted remain and are involved in the Brexit discussion, still just want to score points and are not just getting on with it.

Admittedly I would like the government to make a bloody decision about funding for the Jaguar battery plant etc. We have the chance to create a large number of high tech jobs and be a centre for excellence.

Oh and also biased as I voted remain but just want the fuckers to get us out now and sort it.
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      01-04-2017, 12:49 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brigand View Post
It is a bit of a fiasco, not helped by those determined to remain in the EU and looking to drag things out with legal challenges or like the SNP as a political whipping stick against the UK government.
That's their rights in our democracy and society, same as if it would still be the right of the UKIP to push for Brexit had it gone the other way.

However, that aside, I think that's a bullshit excuse for the government not seeming to have a clue what it's doing. Those aspects don't actually interfere with agreeing a clear objective in the long term.

And whilst laying out your entire negotiating strategy isn't all that clever, knowing what you want out of a negotiation would appear to be a good place to start, and important to share quite widely.
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      01-04-2017, 01:33 PM   #4
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It's gone political. It's gone legal. If Theresa May doesn't keep it under a tight rein it'll derail and be a complete failure. Some may argue that it's already well down that road.

Successful negotiations tend to be borne out of thorough research, scenario modelling, planning, complete confidentiality and total alignment to the negotiation strategy and script (prior to and right through the negotiations). Demands for disclosure of the negotiation objectives/strategy and a vote in the House could support a successful outcome (generating alignment & support), but just as easily compromise the UK's negotiation leverage (disclosure of the strategy beyond the House).

Bickering, in-fighting, mavericks and distraction strategies could well be the downfall of this critical phase for the UK and jeopardise negotiating a mutually good outcome for all parties.

According to Radio 4 News this evening there is still strong support from the UK business community, but we already know that many large businesses are developing serious contingency plans especially (no surprise) the banks. As one sound bite put it "we have to have a button to press, but we'd rather not have to break the glass".

Personally I think May and her core team are doing absolutely the right thing in being tight lipped. Thorough preparation is key and I'm willing to place some faith that that's their core focus until Article 50 is triggered.
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      01-04-2017, 01:33 PM   #5
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Why would you openly state your end game before any negotiations have started!? They are in a no win position. State we want in the customs union people will cuase a stink, state we want out people will cause a stink etc etc.

We should wait until article 50 is triggered then go for tariff free trade, access to single market and no free movement of people and see where we eventually get to. Obviously the eu will say no to all of it and then the negotiations begin. However that could be stated by the government before its triggered to shut people up.
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      01-04-2017, 01:52 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobb View Post
It's going to plan.

There was always going to be "noise" generated by the sore losers.

The outcome of the referedum is crystal clear. To leave the EU and all its associated 'clubs'. The single market is a huge red herring. The USA are not part of the single market, but that didn't stop you buying an iPhone.

The Germans have the most to lose on trade. Let's just go to a preferred nation basis.

It's being complicated by those who didn't want to leave. In the next few weeks the process will begin. By 2019 we will be out.

One thing that really amuses me are the calls for the government to publish a plan. The plan is crystal clear. To leave the EU. Anyone who has seriously negotiated a big business deal will tell you you don't publish a plan in advance of the negotiating!
This is what I'm concerned about - the "noise" being used as an excuse and a red-herring when the reality is we don't seem to have a clue what we are doing.

Never mind anything being complicated by those who wanted to remain, it's that there is absolutely no alignment on what we are looking achieve BY leaving.

I don't want to see a detailed plan, I want a rough idea, that's just slightly more than "Leaving the EU"!

It's really not that much to ask for.
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      01-04-2017, 01:54 PM   #7
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It'll take some time to get even the first steps done with this lot.

But there was an interesting programme on TV a couple of weeks ago about Australia's efforts to trade with us - they've been rejected on loads of farming deals by Europe unless all the EU counties allow them to deal. And Italian farmers don't seem to like that idea... So block Australia.

I guess that there'll be loads of countries already speaking to us about selling their kit to us even now, unofficially that is.

And I doubt the likes of BMW will want to stick us on the blacklist when we trigger article 50 either.

I voted remain, but now think that we'll be better out. But who really knows?
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      01-04-2017, 02:06 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobb View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tengocity View Post
This is what I'm concerned about - the "noise" being used as an excuse and a red-herring when the reality is we don't seem to have a clue what we are doing.

Never mind anything being complicated by those who wanted to remain, it's that there is absolutely no alignment on what we are looking achieve BY leaving.

I don't want to see a detailed plan, I want a rough idea, that's just slightly more than "Leaving the EU"!

It's really not that much to ask for.
What part of "leaving the EU" don't you understand?
The part that explains how we are going to do it. I'm all up for it, but I'm just not convinced that David Davis, for example, has the wherewithal.
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      01-04-2017, 02:49 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Consett Mag View Post
It'll take some time to get even the first steps done with this lot.

But there was an interesting programme on TV a couple of weeks ago about Australia's efforts to trade with us - they've been rejected on loads of farming deals by Europe unless all the EU counties allow them to deal. And Italian farmers don't seem to like that idea... So block Australia.

I guess that there'll be loads of countries already speaking to us about selling their kit to us even now, unofficially that is.

And I doubt the likes of BMW will want to stick us on the blacklist when we trigger article 50 either.

I voted remain, but now think that we'll be better out. But who really knows?
Watched the same programme, it's pretty similar with a number of Commonwealth countries wanting to trade on better terms with the UK.

Also, with VW already announcing a loss of 30,000 jobs over next 10 years, would they also really want to lose a big market like the U.K?
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      01-04-2017, 03:24 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Lobb View Post
What part of "leaving the EU" don't you understand?
To talk about in vs. out as some kind of simplistic binary outcome completely undermines the job at hand of the politicians which is hugely complex and multi-faceted and frankly highlights a basic understanding of the issues. Leaving is easy, but what the status quo will be once we leave is what will take a huge amount of negotiation with individual EU and non-EU nations.

To say that remainers are the ultimate reason things are behind is completely cynical and unhelpful. Wish people would change the record now.
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      01-04-2017, 03:31 PM   #11
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SHIT to be honest!

My business is way down since the vote, bad times indeed!
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      01-04-2017, 03:36 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tengocity View Post
but I'm just not convinced that David Davis, for example, has the wherewithal.
Sadly it's not just him. Liam Fox is a simpleton, and while Boris isn't stupid, he appears to have very little idea about what to do, perhaps because he didn't expect the public to actually vote for this.

I was a remainer, but would now just like a smooth exit. It doesn't look like that's going to happen.

Perhaps our best hope is some form of EU crisis/collapse in 2017/18 to weaken their negotiating hand.
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      01-04-2017, 03:56 PM   #13
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SHIT to be honest!

My business is way down since the vote, bad times indeed!
Really? Your business is connected to the property market I presume, so you're saying that people have decided not to sell/move home since then?
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      01-04-2017, 03:59 PM   #14
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Perhaps our best hope is some form of EU crisis/collapse in 2017/18 to weaken their negotiating hand.

I think we will see that starting to happen, French and German elections next year, which will be interesting.
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      01-04-2017, 04:04 PM   #15
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I do wonder about the collapse of the EU. It would put us in a great position perhaps. But then with Trump as president, and Europe in a weak position, does it give Putin some opportunities to cause mayhem with an invasion in to another previous soviet country?
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      01-04-2017, 04:35 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobb View Post
The destination of the UK post referendum is clearly binary. Today we are a member of the EU, by March 2019 we will not be a member of the EU.

Don't disagree there is considerable work to do. So let's crack on, stop talking the country down, and focus on the opportunity leaving the EU brings.
No it's not. The membership of the EU is binary, but our status and situation post-EU is clearly not defined by our membership status, and could be a good, bad, or indifferent situation.

I'm all for this, but I'm not seeing any focus whatsoever in proceedings. I don't even see the people tasked with this being vaguely on the same page as each other.
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      01-04-2017, 04:41 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Lobb View Post
No. That's NATO. Nothing to do with the EU.
Yes, and NATO is at it's weakest. Trump is right to call out that European members of NATO having cut back average defence spending to below 2% of GDP and getting a free-ride on American defence. So between his dovish stance towards Putin, and a sense that America is pivoting away from it's previous role as the "worlds peacekeeper", and that collective European weakness, I think this we are approaching that most vulnerable time.

So if the EU were to collapse, then European relations would be fraught, and therefore NATO even weaker.
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      01-04-2017, 04:56 PM   #18
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So far it feels a car crash in a shower of shit!

No real way forward and no real plan. Awesome.
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      01-04-2017, 04:57 PM   #19
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Don't entirely agree that the fall of the EU and any weakness of NATO are symbiotic. Yes, Trump has made noises over funding NATO, and in the next breath is talking about the biggest rearmament of the US since Reagan.

The US will do what is in its strategic interest. As the last remaining superpower, I don't see it weakening NATO to give Putin an easy "in".
I never said they were symbiotic, as it's the US which really provides NATO's strength. The US strategic interest used to be spreading liberal democratic leadership around the world as much as the financial side of things. That has changed and it's now financial mainly, in which case I don't see Trump leaping to defend the Baltic states if Putin invaded them for example.

And so do we think that the European countries of NATO will step in? I don't see it now, and all I am saying is that if the EU was to fall apart, then you could argue that it could lead to NATO being even weaker.

If the EU fell apart and the US was still under Reagan for example, then it wouldn't matter, but it's not.
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      01-04-2017, 05:27 PM   #20
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I never said they were symbiotic, as it's the US which really provides NATO's strength. The US strategic interest used to be spreading liberal democratic leadership around the world as much as the financial side of things. That has changed and it's now financial mainly, in which case I don't see Trump leaping to defend the Baltic states if Putin invaded them for example.

And so do we think that the European countries of NATO will step in? I don't see it now, and all I am saying is that if the EU was to fall apart, then you could argue that it could lead to NATO being even weaker.

If the EU fell apart and the US was still under Reagan for example, then it wouldn't matter, but it's not.
Yes if the Russians were to threaten the Baltic states we would step in, we have had people there since 2004, mainly doing Quick Reaction Alerts (QRA). Admittedly with the Russians having a ton of S-400 sitting down in Kalingrad any air campaign would be short.

However, yes we are committed to it and rightly so.
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      01-04-2017, 05:49 PM   #21
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No real way forward and no real plan. Awesome.
Of course there's a way forwards : leaving the EU. It's the UK's prerogative when to initiate Article 50, and Theresa May has clearly stated that she intends to do that by the end of March.

No real plan ? How do you substantiate that statement ? Your, on anyone else's outside of the core negotiating team, lack of detailed knowledge of a key strategic negotiation plan doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. Beyond setting out some fundamental objectives (free trade; restrictions on the free movement of people), there's little to be gained, and a lot to be lost, by publishing the UK's negotiation strategy and activity plan. The press being what it is, negativity will no doubt be the consistent message - fear and bad news sells copy.

To achieve a good outcome the UK negotiating team needs to look the EU in the eye and negotiate clearly, fairly and firmly. Choking and doubt before the process has even begun will simply mean that the EU will dictate the outcome.
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      01-05-2017, 02:55 AM   #22
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SHIT to be honest!

My business is way down since the vote, bad times indeed!
Really? Your business is connected to the property market I presume, so you're saying that people have decided not to sell/move home since then?
Yes property market related, both residential & commercial. I received no work at all for 4 days after the vote & it's never really picked up again properly since then!

I'm just praying it's going to be much better this year or I don't know what I'm going to do, especially with the wife now on statutory maternity pay!
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