[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by Tengocity

Yes indeed! But the point still stands. It's still very small.

And I don’t think 1 in 70 is small!

There’s a calculator online somewhere, wife was sent it through work. It calculates your Covid age. So where you should consider your risk when looking at stats for certain age groups.

She’s fit and healthy, runs 3 times a week etc. Her Covid age is 42 against an actual age of 47.

I’m slim, healthy, don’t drink much, but my two disorders ramp my “covid age” up from 48 to 67! So I’m much more at risk than I first thought. Which is why she convinced me to write to the doctors about my current treatment (didn’t mention the Covid calculator to them, ha ha), who booked me straight in for my vaccine. Just hope I don’t catch it in the queue!

https://alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/

[gangzoom]

Originally Posted by Tengocity

Yes indeed! But the point still stands. It's still very small.

For most yes, but some of our patient groups we are now seeing 30% mortality rates, and we are pretty powerless to do anything .

[JR1664]

Originally Posted by gangzoom

For most yet, but some of our patient groups we are now seeing 30% mortality rates, and we are pretty powerless to do anything .

My son is working in a regional Nightingale with over 100 beds. Most are over 60 and as you say the mortality rate is 30%.

None are ventilated (they're in the main ICU). 30% will die, 30% will live and the rest could go either way according to the consultant.

It was interesting to note that being ventilated (Intubation ?) is equivalent to running a marathon, every day. This sounds absolutely horrific.

[Ennoch]

Originally Posted by JR1664

My son is working in a regional Nightingale with over 100 beds. Most are over 60 and as you say the mortality rate is 30%.

None are ventilated (they're in the main ICU). 30% will die, 30% will live and the rest could go either way according to the consultant.

It was interesting to note that being ventilated (Intubation ?) is equivalent to running a marathon, every day. This sounds absolutely horrific.

I know I've disagreed with your POV a few times and probably come across as being very blasé about the risk but I'm not, and the points you made there are exactly why I am being very, very careful. The whole thing sounds horrific, even if you get the 'mild' version - a few people I know have had it and reckoned it took 4-6 months before they could get their training load back on track. I'm still reasonably convinced I had it mildly back in March last year before all the lockdown etc but given it's impossible to know I'm still behaving as though I am totally at risk to it as it's the only option. I can't believe there are people saying it's not that bad still, even with the evidence to the contrary. Obviously the total numbers in ICU are low compared to the population but even so, there's no way of knowing whether you are one of those who will end up in ICU, and once you're there your chances of survival are very much not the odds I'd want.

[Tengocity]

Originally Posted by gangzoom

For most yes, but some of our patient groups we are now seeing 30% mortality rates, and we are pretty powerless to do anything .

I assume that's 30% of the people who end up in hospital? If so then there's all the corresponding people who haven't ended up in hospital, which is still the vast majority presumably?

[Wills2]

Tonight's press conference was interesting as I'd been asking with the question to myself why the death rate was so high when we have better therapeutics and a greater understanding of the virus why so many were dying, well we got our answer the new strain is killing more people.

The vaccine has to be the only way out fingers crossed we can keep the vaccination rate up.

[JR1664]

Originally Posted by Ennoch

I know I've disagreed with your POV a few times and probably come across as being very blasé about the risk but I'm not, and the points you made there are exactly why I am being very, very careful. The whole thing sounds horrific, even if you get the 'mild' version - a few people I know have had it and reckoned it took 4-6 months before they could get their training load back on track. I'm still reasonably convinced I had it mildly back in March last year before all the lockdown etc but given it's impossible to know I'm still behaving as though I am totally at risk to it as it's the only option. I can't believe there are people saying it's not that bad still, even with the evidence to the contrary. Obviously the total numbers in ICU are low compared to the population but even so, there's no way of knowing whether you are one of those who will end up in ICU, and once you're there your chances of survival are very much not the odds I'd want.

No worries Ennoch, I'm pretty sure we're kindred spirits in our love for the great outdoors. Trust me I was pushing the boundaries on here in March in relation to cycling, certainly getting away with the tent. I haven't gone full don't step outside lockdown, I think the 'reservoir discussion' probably got out of hand and got bogged down in semantics and individuals, so reactionary I guess.

On a personal level, as I said my lad is in a Nightingale and it ain't good. His partner caught it at the same hospital but strangely he never did.

My sister (nurse) brother in law (hospital porter) and other sister in law (working from home) all have it.....I guess shit suddenly became real notwithstanding the mother in law (In the annex) is clinically vulnerable...If I came over as Peter perfect 'full lockdown' I apologise..not intended..all three of the family old fogies will have had their first jab by tomorrow so that's a massive result for us.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by Wills2

Tonight's press conference was interesting as I'd been asking with the question to myself why the death rate was so high when we have better therapeutics and a greater understanding of the virus why so many were dying, well we got our answer the new strain is killing more people.

That's also where my mind has taken me. Why the death rate with better understanding of treatments? Not really the answer we wanted to hear as a possible cause.

The other side of the coin is, what's this going to do for Long-Covid, both for those hospitalised, and the folks who get long term issues who don't go to hospital.

[MashinBenzin]

For all the talk of whether 1% or 1.4% is that different for an individual, I suppose the stark reality is that, if the virus had always been in this form, we'd be staring down the barrel of 140k deaths rather than 100k deaths, since this started. 40k more people gone, and 40k families affected....It's a colossal increase in the virus' potency (if the numbers ultimately stack up to 30- 40%)

[Hooded]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

For all the talk of whether 1% or 1.4% is that different for an individual, I suppose the stark reality is that, if the virus had always been in this form, we'd be staring down the barrel of 140k deaths rather than 100k deaths, since this started. 40k more people gone, and 40k families affected....It's a colossal increase in the virus' potency (if the numbers ultimately stack up to 30- 40%)

Agree, but.. let’s not worry too much until we know for sure if this is definitely the case.
Sir Patrick made it clear that the current data was uncertain.

The fact that mortality rates are roughly equal for hospitalised patients from both the new and old strains is at least a good sign the other ‘uncertain data’ could be skewed a little.

Glass half full not half empty until we know for certain!

[Chappers 71]

The nursing home that my 90 year old Mum has been in since August had remained Covid free until just after Christmas, they then had 4 staff members test positive & 1 'inmate' all apparently without symptoms.

All the residents received their vaccination about 3 weeks ago, on Monday I was called to be told that 3 residents had tested positive from the previous weeks testing & up until this Wednesday residents were still mixing in the day room, my mum included.
I spoke with her last night & she said she didn't feel to good, sore throat & a cough.

Had a phone call from the nursing home this evening saying she wasn't very well.
Spoke with her earlier & she sounds pretty rough, they will be testing her again on Monday, just gotta hope for the best.

[Hooded]

Originally Posted by Chappers 71

The nursing home that my 90 year old Mum has been in since August had remained Covid free until just after Christmas, they then had 4 staff members test positive & 1 'inmate' all apparently without symptoms.

All the residents received their vaccination about 3 weeks ago, on Monday I was called to be told that 3 residents had tested positive from the previous weeks testing & up until this Wednesday residents were still mixing in the day room, my mum included.
I spoke with her last night & she said she didn't feel to good, sore throat & acough

I hope your Mom will be fine. At least she’s been vaccinated so hopefully after 3 weeks has some immunity building up.

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by Chappers 71

The nursing home that my 90 year old Mum has been in since August had remained Covid free until just after Christmas, they then had 4 staff members test positive & 1 'inmate' all apparently without symptoms.

All the residents received their vaccination about 3 weeks ago, on Monday I was called to be told that 3 residents had tested positive from the previous weeks testing & up until this Wednesday residents were still mixing in the day room, my mum included.
I spoke with her last night & she said she didn't feel to good, sore throat & a cough.

Had a phone call from the nursing home this evening saying she wasn't very well.
Spoke with her earlier & she sounds pretty rough, they will be testing her again on Monday, just gotta hope for the best.

Sorry to hear that, but hope that your Mum is OK

[Chappers 71]

Originally Posted by Hooded

I hope your Mom will be fine. At least she’s been vaccinated so hopefully after 3 weeks has some immunity building up.

Thanks

[DougMcL]

I'm in our Nightingale ICU twice a week for 25 hours a week. Our patients are much sicker than first time around, mortality is much greater and for those who do recover, they are taking much longer to do so. We had four patients admitted today, more than a ten percent rise. Currently hovering around 30 patients with around 30 more patients on CPAP outside the ICU. All the other NI hospital ICUs are full, give or take a few beds. We are supposed to have five beds available but there are no nurses to staff them. Each ICU nurse has two or more patients. Our population here is about 1.9 million.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...ZjNSIsImMiOjh9

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by Hooded

Agree, but.. let’s not worry too much until we know for sure if this is definitely the case.
Sir Patrick made it clear that the current data was uncertain.

The fact that mortality rates are roughly equal for hospitalised patients from both the new and old strains is at least a good sign the other ‘uncertain data’ could be skewed a little.

Glass half full not half empty until we know for certain!

Absolutely, that's why I mentioned if the numbers stack up. I hope they don't, but then I hoped it wouldn't "become an epidemic"!

[JustChris]

Originally Posted by Goneinsixtyseconds

And I don't think 1 in 70 is small!

There's a calculator online somewhere, wife was sent it through work. It calculates your Covid age. So where you should consider your risk when looking at stats for certain age groups.

She's fit and healthy, runs 3 times a week etc. Her Covid age is 42 against an actual age of 47.

I'm slim, healthy, don't drink much, but my two disorders ramp my "covid age" up from 48 to 67! So I'm much more at risk than I first thought. Which is why she convinced me to write to the doctors about my current treatment (didn't mention the Covid calculator to them, ha ha), who booked me straight in for my vaccine. Just hope I don't catch it in the queue!

https://alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/

What is a Covid age?

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

For all the talk of whether 1% or 1.4% is that different for an individual, I suppose the stark reality is that, if the virus had always been in this form, we'd be staring down the barrel of 140k deaths rather than 100k deaths, since this started. 40k more people gone, and 40k families affected....It's a colossal increase in the virus' potency (if the numbers ultimately stack up to 30- 40%)

Exactly right. These are huge numbers when we think of the population as a whole.

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by Chappers 71

The nursing home that my 90 year old Mum has been in since August had remained Covid free until just after Christmas, they then had 4 staff members test positive & 1 'inmate' all apparently without symptoms.

All the residents received their vaccination about 3 weeks ago, on Monday I was called to be told that 3 residents had tested positive from the previous weeks testing & up until this Wednesday residents were still mixing in the day room, my mum included.
I spoke with her last night & she said she didn't feel to good, sore throat & a cough.

Had a phone call from the nursing home this evening saying she wasn't very well.
Spoke with her earlier & she sounds pretty rough, they will be testing her again on Monday, just gotta hope for the best.

I hope all will be well with your mum and the outcome is good.

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by DougMcL

I'm in our Nightingale ICU twice a week for 25 hours a week. Our patients are much sicker than first time around, mortality is much greater and for those who do recover, they are taking much longer to do so. We had four patients admitted today, more than a ten percent rise. Currently hovering around 30 patients with around 30 more patients on CPAP outside the ICU. All the other NI hospital ICUs are full, give or take a few beds. We are supposed to have five beds available but there are no nurses to staff them. Each ICU nurse has two or more patients. Our population here is about 1.9 million.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...ZjNSIsImMiOjh9

Wow, I presume you're a Doctor or a nurse etc.. anyway good luck and thank you for your service.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by Hooded

Agree, but.. let’s not worry too much until we know for sure if this is definitely the case.
Sir Patrick made it clear that the current data was uncertain.

The fact that mortality rates are roughly equal for hospitalised patients from both the new and old strains is at least a good sign the other ‘uncertain data’ could be skewed a little.

Glass half full not half empty until we know for certain!

Sir Patrick did say they weren't entirely sure; however, he also seemed to suggest the evidence was pointing towards the new variant having a higher mortality rate and I doubt he'd have come out and said that in a press conference unless he had a pretty good idea which way the wind's blowing.

We also have evidence in the form of not only the number of deaths in this second wave but also the number of what were previously considered less vulnerable groups who are now ending-up in hospital and dying.

So while it might be true to say it isn't 100% proven the new variant has a higher mortality rate I reckon on balance of probability it's looking highly likely - one person's glass half empty is another person's realistic!

[Hooded]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Sir Patrick did say they weren't entirely sure; however, he also seemed to suggest the evidence was pointing towards the new variant having a higher mortality rate and I doubt he'd have come out and said that in a press conference unless he had a pretty good idea which way the wind's blowing.

We also have evidence in the form of not only the number of deaths in this second wave but also the number of what were previously considered less vulnerable groups who are now ending-up in hospital and dying.

So while it might be true to say it isn't 100% proven the new variant has a higher mortality rate I reckon on balance of probability it's looking highly likely - one person's glass half empty is another person's realistic!

He said a little more than that though, he actually said that the data was inconclusive at the moment. That means it’s actually pie in the sky currently, but maybe they thought they’d give us the head up just in case, hoping it would get some of the ignorant 50% of the population who don’t seem to know how to social distance to try a bit harder.

If the new strain really is more deadly than the previous strains you would assume the mortality rates for hospitalised patients would be greater with the new strain as well. The fact that they said it isn’t also gives weight to the inconclusive data possibly (hopefully) being wrong.

My hypothesis for the larger numbers in hospital is the sheer number of people infected this time being much greater due to the new more contagious strain.