[JustChris]

Take it to the Poll.

Not what you want, but you think will be the result....

[MashinBenzin]

Neck and neck, almost. Have all the LobB family voted?

[sahajesh]

Do we have any Russian forum members?

[SkyJawa]

Noel is on the phone to the EU now to try and work it out

[nordberg]

Can we have a third option of no Brexit?

[430GH]

Another vote will happen and I think we'll end up staying in the EU

[JD6]

Originally Posted by 430GH

Another vote will happen and I think we'll end up staying in the EU

The betting market has an implied probability of just over 30% on a second referendum happening currently:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...-eu-referendum

Hopefully we'll have more (or at least some) clarity on Labour's position after they debate this today as that will affect the probability either way.

I guess that they will manage some sort of fudged deal (which will satisfy no one) in November which may scrape through. Failing that, without a deal, the probability of a second referendum rises sharply since there probably aren't the parliamentary numbers to get a 'no deal' through.

I still view no deal as the least likely of the three options:

Fudged deal 60%
Remain after 2nd referendum 25%
No deal 15%

[Watsey]

Originally Posted by JD6

Hopefully we'll have more (or at least some) clarity on Labour's position after they debate this today as that will affect the probability either way.

As far as I can tell, Labour's position is "which populist sway shall we adopt today ?".

[JD6]

Originally Posted by Watsey

As far as I can tell, Labour's position is "which populist sway shall we adopt today ?".

Very true!

The difficulty for Corbyn is he has pretty much tied himself to populism by agreeing to go along with the Labour membership and they overwhelmingly want a second referendum. Even if he probably wouldn't choose it, he doesn't have much choice. Presumably we can also expect some more Labour policies that give free money to the demographic of their membership.

Having previously thought that if the Government collapsed, I might be tempted to vote for Corbyn if that would derail Brexit, I'm beginning to get cold feet on the idea. The form of extreme socialism which McDonnell is putting forward sounds barking mad - even more stupid than I consider Brexit!

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by JD6

Very true!

The difficulty for Corbyn is he has pretty much tied himself to populism by agreeing to go along with the Labour membership and they overwhelmingly want a second referendum.

Having previously thought that if the Government collapsed, I might be tempted to vote for Corbyn if that would derail Brexit, I'm beginning to get cold feet on the idea. The form of extreme socialism which McDonnell is putting forward sounds barking mad - even more stupid than I consider Brexit!

And yet many of their heartland constituencies full of traditional labour voters were the most pro Leave...

Anything is better than voting in the current Labour shower - I'd rather live in France (in the EU).....

[Abdul Karim]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

And yet many of their heartland constituencies full of traditional labour voters were the most pro Leave...

Anything is better than voting in the current Labour shower - I'd rather live in France (in the EU).....

This is critically why the UK WILL leave on 29.03.2019. To oppose leaving would be political suicide for Labour. Not even the most frenzied Trotskyite, such as McCluskey is suggesting a vote that asks the question of leaving.

[nordberg]

Originally Posted by LobB

No. We've already had that referendum two years ago.

Can we have it again with some semblance of accuracy and truth? Doubtful....

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by nordberg

Can we have it again with some semblance of accuracy and truth? Doubtful....

well we have never managed a general election like that so expectations are pretty low...

[JD6]

Originally Posted by Count Bernd Von Ottovorde

This is critically why the UK WILL leave on 29.03.2019. To oppose leaving would be political suicide for Labour. Not even the most frenzied Trotskyite, such as McCluskey is suggesting a vote that asks the question of leaving.

McCluskey is suggesting a referendum without a Remain option, but he seems to be on his own.

It's a tricky situation for Labour as they want to maintain their ambiguous position on Brexit for as long as possible, but their membership are overwhelmingly Remainers and Corbyn has vowed to follow the membership. This of course would put him at odds with Labour Leave constituencies, or those who still feel that way

McDonnell hinted at their route through this conflict in a Radio 4 interview yesterday along the following lines:

If the preferred general election option doesn't happen (and it won't) they would support a second referendum.

Challenged about the Remain option, he said that they wanted to respect the 2016 referendum, but that the design of the referendum was a matter for parliament. So they get to continue their ambiguous position by publicly suggesting a referendum without a Remain option, while grudgingly accepting that parliament put it there, which of course the 500/650 Remain MPs would.

[Witney]

Originally Posted by nordberg

Can we have it again with some semblance of accuracy and truth? Doubtful....

Claims of accuracy and truth.

The following is an extract from the Treasury's May 2016 Brexit Paper. This was to advise on the immediate impact of a Brexit vote on the UK:


“The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain”.

“The analysis also presents a downside scenario, finding that the shock could be much more profound, meaning the effect on the economy would be worse still. The rise in uncertainty could be amplified, the volatility in financial markets more tumultuous, and the extent of the impact to living standards more acute. In this severe scenario, GDP would be 6% smaller, there would be a deeper recession, and the number of people made unemployed would rise by around 800,000 compared with a vote to remain. The hit to wages, inflation, house prices and borrowing would be larger. There is a credible risk that this more acute scenario could materialise”.

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by Watsey

As far as I can tell, Labour's position is "which populist sway shall we adopt today ?".

Nothing is off the table because we haven't got a clue which way to go.....

[nordberg]

Originally Posted by Witney

Claims of accuracy and truth.

The following is an extract from the Treasury's May 2016 Brexit Paper. This was to advise on the immediate impact of a Brexit vote on the UK:


“The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain”.

“The analysis also presents a downside scenario, finding that the shock could be much more profound, meaning the effect on the economy would be worse still. The rise in uncertainty could be amplified, the volatility in financial markets more tumultuous, and the extent of the impact to living standards more acute. In this severe scenario, GDP would be 6% smaller, there would be a deeper recession, and the number of people made unemployed would rise by around 800,000 compared with a vote to remain. The hit to wages, inflation, house prices and borrowing would be larger. There is a credible risk that this more acute scenario could materialise”.

Way to go Brexiteers!

[JustChris]

Forum members believe a deal is more likely than no deal currently...

[JustChris]

Originally Posted by sahajesh

Do we have any Russian forum members?

I believe in social media circles they are called influencers ...

[Abdul Karim]

Originally Posted by nordberg

Way to go Brexiteers!

The penny hasen't dropped has it?

[sahajesh]

Originally Posted by JD6

McCluskey is suggesting a referendum without a Remain option, but he seems to be on his own.

It's a tricky situation for Labour as they want to maintain their ambiguous position on Brexit for as long as possible, but their membership are overwhelmingly Remainers and Corbyn has vowed to follow the membership. This of course would put him at odds with Labour Leave constituencies, or those who still feel that way

McDonnell hinted at their route through this conflict in a Radio 4 interview yesterday along the following lines:

If the preferred general election option doesn't happen (and it won't) they would support a second referendum.

Challenged about the Remain option, he said that they wanted to respect the 2016 referendum, but that the design of the referendum was a matter for parliament. So they get to continue their ambiguous position by publicly suggesting a referendum without a Remain option, while grudgingly accepting that parliament put it there, which of course the 500/650 Remain MPs would.

Labour needs to get a spine - they are in a tough position, sure, but this fucking around doesn't help their already tattered image.

[Abdul Karim]

Originally Posted by JustChris

Forum members believe a deal is more likely than no deal currently...

Chatting to a couple of friends at Fidelity this afternoon, this is the call the market is currently making.