[JD6]

Originally Posted by LobB

Bullshit.

If that was the case the all share indicies would be flat on their face. Both 100 and 250 are riding high.

Most of our largest companies have very substantial foreign currency revenues. Take the 5 largest HSBC RDSB BP BAT GSK. If the pound were to move down 10% in isolation, all of those would see substantial gains in Sterling terms. That isn't an indication that they have just become more successful, just that the currency that they report in has devalued. It shouldn't be that hard to grasp.

Share markets around the world have risen sharply, and looked at in Sterling terms, so have the UK markets, but you need to consider that in conjunction with currency value.

UK economic growth has dropped from the top of the G7 to the bottom of the G7 since the Brexit vote. You need some pretty strongly rose-tinted glasses to view that as a positive.

I can see that finance isn't your strong point

[JD6]

Originally Posted by LobB

You TOTALLY miss the point! As usual. And given I just spent the last thirty years investing, I know a little about it.
You focus on the top 100 index constituents, as most people do. You will notice in my post I talk about the 250 index, which is the smaller, primarily UK centric companies. Which is also riding high.
So if the market at large is investigating heavily into UK centric companies, what does that tell you about the markets outlook for the UK economy?

You had a point?

A chimpanzee with a set of numbered bananas can invest. This kind of random investing actually works OK so don't kid yourself that you know what you're doing

The FTSE 250 is up around 8% in USD terms since the Brexit vote, and of course it still does contain a large amount of foreign investment, even if less than the FTSE 100. In Sterling terms the 250 has kept pace with the wider market, but you won't get a sensible picture without considering the devaluation of Sterling. When you do, you will see that it has materially underperformed.

The Venezuelan stock market has gone through the roof (in local currency terms!) https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/stock-market

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by LobB

You TOTALLY miss the point! As usual. And given I just spent the last thirty years investing, I know a little about it.
You focus on the top 100 index constituents, as most people do. You will notice in my post I talk about the 250 index, which is the smaller, primarily UK centric companies. Which is also riding high.
So if the market at large is investigating heavily into UK centric companies, what does that tell you about the markets outlook for the UK economy?

JD6 has this right I believe. Also, iirc, he was a professional in the field.

I've also spent a long time as a professional in the financial sector and a long time investing as an amateur and would call bullshit on your point.

I think this just means that we are all pretty much divided based on our preconceptions of what Brexit will result in. No-one actually knows. But going back to my first sentence, I know which angle sounds most likely to me.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by LobB

Indeed. This chimpanzee must have done okay at investing to retire at 54.

Why would you measure UK centric companies performance in dollar terms? Totally counter intuitive. Recalculate your numbers in GBP and you will see the 250 is + 20% since the referendum. If you take that as a comment on the market on UK prospects post 29.03.2019 it's a positive endorsement.

Comparing the Venezuelan market to the UK is like comparing Brigand to a tomato. Pointless.

You would measure the real value of an index against a basket of currencies (and the dollar is a reasonable proxy) since you want to know whether the move in the FTSE 250 is a result of improved prospects of the components, or devaluation of the unit of measurement. To a large extent it is the latter.

The Venezuelan example is an extreme one admittedly, but it does illustrate the potential problem of measuring stock market performance in a local currency. Taken in isolation like that, Venezuela appears to be thriving.


That's 21 years after I retired by the way

[JD6]

Originally Posted by LobB

Good. As far as it goes. If the market had a major downer on the UK economy post 29.03.2019, the index would be -20% and not +20%

I agree that the market would be a lot lower if Brexit was viewed as a potential disaster, while I don’t accept the +20% for the reasons above. I actually think that the market is a bit too sanguine about the risks right now, but we’ll see.

I suggest that you don’t buy the bunting, pork pies and terrible English wine for March 2019 just yet...

I meant I retired 21 years younger, not 21 years ago!

[JustChris]

[JD6]

Originally Posted by LobB

I only invest in sterling, so I measured the indicies using the same.

That’s fine until you want to spend the money. Then its true value compared with say, a Spanish property becomes relevant...

[Bibbles]

Originally Posted by LobB

Of course, then currency movement is critical. But it works both ways of course. The day after the referendum I was tens of thousands up on the deal, merely for punting on a win for leave. A very happy time to have investments denominated in dollars, amoungst others

Now it all makes sense, do you have another account under the name N_Farage?

[too hot]

When do I apply for my international driving permit and visa for my summer holidays?

[Bibbles]

Originally Posted by LobB

He was a commodities dealer IIRC.

I've often heard him referred to as a complete merchant banker.

[ciscopete822]

Originally Posted by LobB

Indeed.

I understand that Spain wants to ban the 17 million Brits who go there each year.

probably not...... but how would you get there?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8553051.html

[Abdul Karim]

Originally Posted by ciscopete822

probably not...... but how would you get there?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8553051.html

Well, that's the independent which is a communist newspaper. And if UK airspace is out of bounds to EU aircraft, it's going to be a longer trip for the Germans getting to the US. Which is a shame. But the Germans have form on this matter, as they didn't take the direct route to Stalingrad

[ciscopete822]

Originally Posted by Count Bernd Von Ottovorde

Well, that's the independent which is a communist newspaper. And if UK airspace is out of bounds to EU aircraft, it's going to be a longer trip for the Germans getting to the US. Which is a shame. But the Germans have form on this matter, as they didn't take the direct route to Stalingrad

you pick the newspaper son

[Abdul Karim]

Originally Posted by ciscopete822

you pick the newspaper son

Attachment 1905536

All communist. Next

[Bibbles]

Have no fear, we're bringing manufacturing back to the UK. So British robots can always find work.

[Dave_3]

Originally Posted by Bibbles

Have no fear, we're bringing manufacturing back to the UK. So British robots can always find work.

D.

[ciscopete822]

pretty much lol

[AntF32]

Originally Posted by LobB

No. I'm 100% certain he's never been a banker.

He has been, and continues to be an odious chunt

[Bibbles]

Originally Posted by LobB

Manufacturing accounts for 25% of UK GDP, 48% of UK exports and 70% of R&D spend. And it's growing. Makes you proud to be British. No?

A massive % of the R&D spend is due to tax credits funded from the EU. We're waiting to hear if these will be replaced by the U.K. government next year. All we currently get from HMRC are letters saying we don't know what's happening, if you are a member of a trade body, maybe ask them as they might have some info. Fucking clowns the lot of them.

[Bibbles]

Originally Posted by LobB

Surely companies can claim corporation tax relief?

Not the enhanced R&D relief you get as an SME as that's an EU grant. There's currently (as far as anyone in power can tell us) no plan to replace it as it's probably a long way down the list after - where the fuck to get medical/nuclear/food supplies from. Which means companies like mine that are able to, will relocate and others may no longer have the funds to do the R&D

[2CRO4TV]

Originally Posted by ciscopete822

pretty much lol

Attachment 1905669

Sums it up perfectly

[too hot]

Oh well it’s over to plan b.......oh wait a minute there is/was no plan b.
It’s a fu** up plain and simple.