[robbiep]

A few pages back we were discussing people in hospital (and particularly in ITU / ICU units) that were unvaccinated, and the effect it is having on other patients, and their essential operations.

I give you this : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...ntral-59561747

Whilst the article doesn't say that the unavailability of ITU beds in this case is down to Covid, I can confirm that we have seen precisely this happening, and the same applies across the country.

I'm also aware that most people on here have been vaccinated, and will be getting their boosters as and when they get called for them. For that, I, and everyone else that works in healthcare across the world, thank you

For those who haven't had their jab, because "I'll be OK", you might not be, and if not, you might be taking up a hospital bed and preventing a cancer or other patient from getting their operation.
You'd not be happy if it was your partner, child, parent, sibling, etc. that couldn't be treated because some selfish person didn't get the jab. Please don't be that selfish person either

[Pentland]

Originally Posted by robbiep

A few pages back we were discussing people in hospital (and particularly in ITU / ICU units) that were unvaccinated, and the effect it is having on other patients, and their essential operations.

I give you this : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...ntral-59561747

Whilst the article doesn't say that the unavailability of ITU beds in this case is down to Covid, I can confirm that we have seen precisely this happening, and the same applies across the country.

All that highlights is the NHS is stretched at the best of times. COVID has simply amplified the situation.

[DougMcL]

The NHS has been underfunded from 2010. What makes me laugh is a certain Mr C(H)unt taking pot shots at the current health chiefs when it was he who did most of the damage!

Worth a listen as it has me rolling around the floor. I was ironing a shirt and listening to this live and couldn't believe my ears. Andrew Marr even repeated the spoonerism later that day....

[robbiep]

Originally Posted by DougMcL

The NHS has been underfunded from 2010. What makes me laugh is a certain Mr C(H)unt taking pot shots at the current health chiefs when it was he who did most of the damage!

Worth a watch as it has me rolling around the floor. I was ironing a shirt and listening to this live and couldn't believe my ears.

Try to remember that the forum is strictly 'no politics', please. Otherwise this thread ends up getting stopped and deleted.

I'm in Wales, and the Welsh NHS is run by Cardiff (Labour)
The cancelled operation I linked to in the article is in Scotland, and their NHS is run by the Scottish Gov't (SNP)
From your profile, you're in NI, and your NHS is run from Stormont !
Jeremy Hunt had responsibility and control over precisely none of those areas (well, maybe NI when Stormont collapsed, but that's a failure of Stormont)

Those of us that work in the NHS (wherever that may be), I'm sure that we can all see various things that are well run, and those that we feel are poorly run.
Those outside it, do recall that you're getting a biased view, whichever side of the political divide you get your news from.

[CajunBMW]

Here is a bit of levity for the day. This one makes me laugh for all the wrong reasons.

[CajunBMW]

Sorry one more silly thing to add to another dull Tuesday (this is from a virologist friend). Also makes me laugh especially the Scottish side of me. Apparently this is another variant of concern.

[mcoops]

Originally Posted by robbiep

A few pages back we were discussing people in hospital (and particularly in ITU / ICU units) that were unvaccinated, and the effect it is having on other patients, and their essential operations.

I give you this : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...ntral-59561747

Whilst the article doesn't say that the unavailability of ITU beds in this case is down to Covid, I can confirm that we have seen precisely this happening, and the same applies across the country.

I'm also aware that most people on here have been vaccinated, and will be getting their boosters as and when they get called for them. For that, I, and everyone else that works in healthcare across the world, thank you

For those who haven't had their jab, because "I'll be OK", you might not be, and if not, you might be taking up a hospital bed and preventing a cancer or other patient from getting their operation.
You'd not be happy if it was your partner, child, parent, sibling, etc. that couldn't be treated because some selfish person didn't get the jab. Please don't be that selfish person either

It's been said before on these pages, but thank you for what you are doing. I guess there is a good chance Omicron is going put more pressure on you guys, and you just keep dealing with it, because there is no alternative. We appreciate you. Happy to say I managed to get a walk-in booster at the weekend

[DougMcL]

Originally Posted by robbiep

Those outside it, do recall that you're getting a biased view, whichever side of the political divide you get your news from.

I do work inside it and wasn't trying to be political. Only that three successive administrations had underfunded it.

There was a certain amount of levity intended and everyone in England, Scotland and Wales should be extremely grateful that their NHS is not run by the Stormont Executive. That is a complete disaster. In fact it isn't even called the NHS any more, but HSC.

[MY340i]

i think this thread has run its course...

[robbiep]

Originally Posted by mcoops

It's been said before on these pages, but thank you for what you are doing. I guess there is a good chance Omicron is going put more pressure on you guys, and you just keep dealing with it, because there is no alternative. We appreciate you. Happy to say I managed to get a walk-in booster at the weekend

Excellent, well done. And many thanks for your kind words.

I've spent a lot of time over the last few days looking at the Omicron variant data and case data (both UK and SA), and I'm not optimistic.

If the numbers go as it looks (not worst case scenario), we'll be looking at 60-90k overall new cases per day by Christmas day - 40-50k Delta, 20-40k Omicron. Even if Omicron is less likely to result in hospitalisation than Delta, we're looking at our hospitals cancelling virtually all operations as we hit the end of December, with the consequent delays and complications that brings for all those people.
In our hospital, our ITU has 2 parts - ITU and CCU. So we can go 'red' on one of those areas with about 1 hour notice as case numbers climb (going back to 'green' requires 48 hours, due to the post-Covid deep clean and challenge testing to confirm)
Then, as case numbers climb further, our remaining 'green' side can go red. But when that happens, ITU patients are moved into Theatre recovery 2.
If case numbers climb even further and Rec 2 is going to be going 'red', then green ITU patients get moved into Recovery 1.
We reached that last stage in Jan / Feb this year. There is no further stage we can go to.
At that point the UK was seeing 60-70k new cases a day.

If we hit 80-90k cases a day with a similar hospitalisation rate, then you can see the situation we (and every other hospital) is in.

[DougMcL]

Originally Posted by robbiep

If the numbers go as it looks (not worst case scenario), we'll be looking at 60-90k overall new cases per day by Christmas day - 40-50k Delta, 20-40k Omicron. Even if Omicron is less likely to result in hospitalisation than Delta, we're looking at our hospitals cancelling virtually all operations as we hit the end of December, with the consequent delays and complications that brings for all those people.

That sounds horrendous and just what I was dreading. Our Covid ICU has been steady at about 8 patients for a few months compared with 30 odd last March. I absolutely dread a return to those days. I still have nightmares about it.

[HighlandPete]

I do hope all those on the front line don't have to cope with an increase due to this latest Omicron variant. You are doing a good job guys!

I'm reading that hospital admissions are going up in South Africa, even if it is stated to be mild to medium illness. What's the status if this happens in the UK? Even without severe illness due to Omicron, I see it as still filling and blocking hospitals from the 'normal' winter workload, if folks need beds.

[sahajesh]

Originally Posted by CajunBMW

Sorry one more silly thing to add to another dull Tuesday (this is from a virologist friend). Also makes me laugh especially the Scottish side of me. Apparently this is another variant of concern.

A solid dose of ear plugs will prevent that.

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by robbiep

Excellent, well done. And many thanks for your kind words.

I've spent a lot of time over the last few days looking at the Omicron variant data and case data (both UK and SA), and I'm not optimistic.

If the numbers go as it looks (not worst case scenario), we'll be looking at 60-90k overall new cases per day by Christmas day - 40-50k Delta, 20-40k Omicron. Even if Omicron is less likely to result in hospitalisation than Delta, we're looking at our hospitals cancelling virtually all operations as we hit the end of December, with the consequent delays and complications that brings for all those people.
In our hospital, our ITU has 2 parts - ITU and CCU. So we can go 'red' on one of those areas with about 1 hour notice as case numbers climb (going back to 'green' requires 48 hours, due to the post-Covid deep clean and challenge testing to confirm)
Then, as case numbers climb further, our remaining 'green' side can go red. But when that happens, ITU patients are moved into Theatre recovery 2.
If case numbers climb even further and Rec 2 is going to be going 'red', then green ITU patients get moved into Recovery 1.
We reached that last stage in Jan / Feb this year. There is no further stage we can go to.
At that point the UK was seeing 60-70k new cases a day.

If we hit 80-90k cases a day with a similar hospitalisation rate, then you can see the situation we (and every other hospital) is in.

Originally Posted by robbiep

Excellent, well done. And many thanks for your kind words.

I've spent a lot of time over the last few days looking at the Omicron variant data and case data (both UK and SA), and I'm not optimistic.

If the numbers go as it looks (not worst case scenario), we'll be looking at 60-90k overall new cases per day by Christmas day - 40-50k Delta, 20-40k Omicron. Even if Omicron is less likely to result in hospitalisation than Delta, we're looking at our hospitals cancelling virtually all operations as we hit the end of December, with the consequent delays and complications that brings for all those people.
In our hospital, our ITU has 2 parts - ITU and CCU. So we can go 'red' on one of those areas with about 1 hour notice as case numbers climb (going back to 'green' requires 48 hours, due to the post-Covid deep clean and challenge testing to confirm)
Then, as case numbers climb further, our remaining 'green' side can go red. But when that happens, ITU patients are moved into Theatre recovery 2.
If case numbers climb even further and Rec 2 is going to be going 'red', then green ITU patients get moved into Recovery 1.
We reached that last stage in Jan / Feb this year. There is no further stage we can go to.
At that point the UK was seeing 60-70k new cases a day.

If we hit 80-90k cases a day with a similar hospitalisation rate, then you can see the situation we (and every other hospital) is in.

We are seeing strong rises too. We are averaging 100k new infections per day. Closer to home we are seeing rises in positivity in our community testing and in our nursing home testing. Many states are seeing strong increases in infection.

[mcoops]

After hearing this speculated on in recent days, there now seems to be something a bit more formal from WHO on infections being higher, but severity being milder:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59573037

[MY340i]

Originally Posted by mcoops

After hearing this speculated on in recent days, there now seems to be something a bit more formal from WHO on infections being higher, but severity being milder:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59573037

sound promising

[ArthurKing]

Sky news reporting BoJo going to look to move towards Plan B soon, sounds like what we have now plus working from home.

I am assuming he is trying to buy time to ensure infections are not at such high levels that he has to stop household mixing just before Xmas like he did last year.

Our firm is telling us to wfh from 21st December to 10th Jan anyway just to ensure we don't bring it back in with us but having to do another couple of weeks before that is not the end of the world for me but its another kick to businesses that rely on commuters.

You can see how this is going to pan out over the next 12 months....come summer we will still have travel restrictions, having to get tested before and after, masks on planes etc. Come December 2022, the same thing will happen.

[Scoobyd]

Question for CajunBMW when he's next about please!

My girlfriend's just turned 40 and has been able to book her booster today now the dates have been brought forward after it was previously booked in for January. Which is good news!

Her question is, she had Pfizer for her first 2 shots and thinks she'll be offered Moderna or Pfizer for her booster. Is there any downside to having Pfizer again as the booster or could it be better to mix it up with a Moderna and create a drug cocktail!

I had AZ for my first 2 and was given Pfizer as my booster.

Thanks as ever!

[mcoops]

Originally Posted by ArthurKing

Sky news reporting BoJo going to look to move towards Plan B soon, sounds like what we have now plus working from home.

I am assuming he is trying to buy time to ensure infections are not at such high levels that he has to stop household mixing just before Xmas like he did last year.

Our firm is telling us to wfh from 21st December to 10th Jan anyway just to ensure we don't bring it back in with us but having to do another couple of weeks before that is not the end of the world for me but its another kick to businesses that rely on commuters.

You can see how this is going to pan out over the next 12 months....come summer we will still have travel restrictions, having to get tested before and after, masks on planes etc. Come December 2022, the same thing will happen.

I think that's an interesting one, i.e. do you get into a cycle of relaxation of rules during warmer months and then tighter, say, Oct-Mar. Not a great prospect if you are a ski resort! Also, CajunBMW, I can't recall if you've enlightened us before on whether there is a particular time of year when new variants are more likely to emerge?

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by ArthurKing

Sky news reporting BoJo going to look to move towards Plan B soon, sounds like what we have now plus working from home.

I am assuming he is trying to buy time to ensure infections are not at such high levels that he has to stop household mixing just before Xmas like he did last year.

Our firm is telling us to wfh from 21st December to 10th Jan anyway just to ensure we don't bring it back in with us but having to do another couple of weeks before that is not the end of the world for me but its another kick to businesses that rely on commuters.

You can see how this is going to pan out over the next 12 months....come summer we will still have travel restrictions, having to get tested before and after, masks on planes etc. Come December 2022, the same thing will happen.

we are doing something similar - dont want staff to have xmas spoiled (and dont want all of our staff ill for the busy xmas period when service is vital) so have pretty much canned pre xmas celebrations for office functions to match hotel rules and said in return you can work from home as much as you want. Will do the xmas thank you celebrations in Jan or whenever we can....

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by mcoops

I think that's an interesting one, i.e. do you get into a cycle of relaxation of rules during warmer months and then tighter, say, Oct-Mar. Not a great prospect if you are a ski resort! Also, CajunBMW, I can't recall if you've enlightened us before on whether there is a particular time of year when new variants are more likely to emerge?

There is no evidence that there is any special time of the year for variants to arise with this particular virus. In general the more a virus replicates the greater the chance that something new can develop. Now with seasonal viruses that would generally favor the high time for infection of that virus (in the country where replication is high).

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

we are doing something similar - dont want staff to have xmas spoiled (and dont want all of our staff ill for the busy xmas period when service is vital) so have pretty much canned pre xmas celebrations for office functions to match hotel rules and said in return you can work from home as much as you want. Will do the xmas thank you celebrations in Jan or whenever we can....

Certainly good luck with the peak holiday travel season.