[MashinBenzin]

It's an "interesting" angle to use road deaths as a comparison. We've got masses of data on what happens when millions of people drive tens of thousands of miles each, as that's what we were all doing for decades.

I've not seen the data for what happens when covid runs through a society like ours without restrictions, mainly because that hasn't really happened. I therefore find it hard to draw any comparisons with a number that empirically does exist (road deaths and serious injuries) and one that does not (Covid, unrestricted).

Which is why i said that I thought it was a good thing that the majority wish to get vaccinated. That will enable numbers to stay under control as restrictions are progressively lifted.

As for personal attitude to risk, I would rather drive thousands of miles than spend an hour in a building containing a high number of people with Covid.

[Alscoob]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

Which is why i said that I thought it was a good thing that the majority wish to get vaccinated. That will enable numbers to stay under control as restrictions are progressively lifted.

As for personal attitude to risk, I would rather drive thousands of miles than spend an hour in a building containing a high number of people with Covid.

Well I'm in for it when its available to me irrespective of percieved issues. I've been fortunate / careful enough to be covid free thus far and hopefully will remain so in the meantime.

I would say that I completly agree with that above, helping to keep numbers under control and think that it is the effort that is required by the indivduals to enable this to happen, some may not agree but that is human nature which is respected, but keep away from my door.

The old saying "if you want to catch something, go to hospital" is still relative, past family experience confirms, so I too would rather be driving miles to avoid just that risk.

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

It's an "interesting" angle to use road deaths as a comparison. We've got masses of data on what happens when millions of people drive tens of thousands of miles each, as that's what we were all doing for decades.

I've not seen the data for what happens when covid runs through a society like ours without restrictions, mainly because that hasn't really happened. I therefore find it hard to draw any comparisons with a number that empirically does exist (road deaths and serious injuries) and one that does not (Covid, unrestricted).

Which is why i said that I thought it was a good thing that the majority wish to get vaccinated. That will enable numbers to stay under control as restrictions are progressively lifted.

As for personal attitude to risk, I would rather drive thousands of miles than spend an hour in a building containing a high number of people with Covid.

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

It's an "interesting" angle to use road deaths as a comparison. We've got masses of data on what happens when millions of people drive tens of thousands of miles each, as that's what we were all doing for decades.

I've not seen the data for what happens when covid runs through a society like ours without restrictions, mainly because that hasn't really happened. I therefore find it hard to draw any comparisons with a number that empirically does exist (road deaths and serious injuries) and one that does not (Covid, unrestricted).

Which is why i said that I thought it was a good thing that the majority wish to get vaccinated. That will enable numbers to stay under control as restrictions are progressively lifted.

As for personal attitude to risk, I would rather drive thousands of miles than spend an hour in a building containing a high number of people with Covid.

Amen to the last part. Driving for me for the most part is relaxing, can be tiring after hours and hours, but shopping during a pandemic is certainly more stressful.

[Hooded]

Originally Posted by Alscoob

The old saying "if you want to catch something, go to hospital" is still relative, past family experience confirms, so I too would rather be driving miles to avoid just that risk.

No ones touched really on the lack on social distancing and high risk at the vaccine centres so far. This needs sorting out urgently if they want to encourage more people to get the vaccine ..

[Harryg]

Originally Posted by Hooded

No ones touched really on the lack on social distancing and high risk at the vaccine centres so far. This needs sorting out urgently if they want to encourage more people to get the vaccine ..

I have already remarked on that and it does need sorting the very people that are risk are put in a perilous situation where most are not being monitored. No social distancing and waiting in extremely cold conditions.

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by Harryg

I have already remarked on that and it does need sorting the very people that are risk are put in a perilous situation where most are not being monitored. No social distancing and waiting in extremely cold conditions.

Waiting in the cold is very bad, should not be happening. My experience in supermarkets suggests that the lack of social distancing is by choice, though.

That particular example may also be made worse by telephoto foreshortening. Editors found this extremely useful when attempting to demonstrate that we had 1 human being per square foot of sand on Bournemouth beach, back in the heady liberated days of summer.

[Harryg]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

Waiting in the cold is very bad, should not be happening. My experience in supermarkets suggests that the lack of social distancing is by choice, though.

That particular example may also be made worse by telephoto foreshortening. Editors found this extremely useful when attempting to demonstrate that we had 1 human being per square foot of sand on Bournemouth beach, back in the heady liberated days of summer.

You are right however I posted earlier that passing the gp,s tuesday there was an orderly queue outside and quite long of elderly people waiting to get in for the jab no social distancing whatso ever I do understand that it is going to be difficult getting these jabs done its probably a price you have to pay, I really think someone from the surgery should be organising it though.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by CajunBMW

I do think all these things will be taken into account, but I still believe the major driver of lockdown or no lockdown or something in between will be the numbers. So if deaths drop as expected with the vaccine then that will relive pressure on the health care system and then things will open up. If the virus mutates and becomes less virulent then that would also be good. On the other hand if we remove what is now the vulnerable population and the virus takes a sinister turn and infects those 55 and under at a greater rate and causes issues similar to the 1918 flu which really targeted and caused deaths in the 20-50 crowd then lock downs would go back in place until those folks got vaccinated. Obviously that is not a scenario I favor, but in this thought exercise, it was to illustrate how fluid the situation could be. That is why I believe numbers and statistics will drive the governmental decisions. Obviously just my opinion.

Again I'm not sure we're disagreeing significantly?

I agree the lifting on restrictions will be governed by the numbers but I suppose what I'm suggesting is that, based on the data we've seen on the virus so far, it's likely hospital admissions and deaths will start to reduce significantly once those in the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated. If that doesn't happen my theory's blown out of the water but if it does I'd argue the level of infection starts to matter less because most of those who catch the virus will have either little in the way of symptoms or quite possibly no symptoms at all; therefore, I'd be more comfortable with starting to ease restrictions once the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

And of course if new evidence were to emerge to show that (say) younger age groups were more vulnerable than first thought then naturally my view would change; I'm certainly not wanting to see people suffer and die, I just want to avoiding everything being locked-down to mitigate what has hopefully become a relatively small risk!

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

It's an "interesting" angle to use road deaths as a comparison. We've got masses of data on what happens when millions of people drive tens of thousands of miles each, as that's what we were all doing for decades.

I've not seen the data for what happens when covid runs through a society like ours without restrictions, mainly because that hasn't really happened. I therefore find it hard to draw any comparisons with a number that empirically does exist (road deaths and serious injuries) and one that does not (Covid, unrestricted).

We have got data on the effect of Covid on different age groups though and thus far it seems to suggest quite clearly that age - and whether someone has an underlying condition - are significant factors in determining how people respond to being infected by the virus.

If you choose not to believe that data - and think the effect on younger age groups is being downplayed and they're at a greater risk than is being suggested - that's obviously your prerogative but if that's the case what's making you come to that view?

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

As for personal attitude to risk, I would rather drive thousands of miles than spend an hour in a building containing a high number of people with Covid.

Even if the evidence showed that, for you personally, driving lots of miles was a greater risk to your life than catching Covid?

[Ronstein]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Even if the evidence showed that, for you personally, driving lots of miles was a greater risk to your life than catching Covid?

Without wishing to go down a rabbit hole, I don't think you're comparing like with like. The risk of dying in an accident is greatly influenced by how good and safe a driver you are, how good your awareness is, how safe your car is etc. etc., whereas in a building full of people, there's less you can do to minimise the risk of catching Covid and, if you catch it, whether you get ill, seriously ill, or die seems to be pretty random, especially with the new mutations.

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by Harryg

I have already remarked on that and it does need sorting the very people that are risk are put in a perilous situation where most are not being monitored. No social distancing and waiting in extremely cold conditions.

This is why we have set up drive through vaccinations. You stay in your car and are warm, you are socially distanced and once you park we can monitor you for 20 or so minutes. We are lucky because we have some big wide open parking lots to this in so that we can have separate in and outs and a large space to allow hundreds and hundreds of cars to be parked. For nursing homes we will send strike teams to vaccinate the residents, so they don't even have to leave their home or maybe not even leave their room.

[JR1664]

Originally Posted by Harryg

You are right however I posted earlier that passing the gp,s tuesday there was an orderly queue outside and quite long of elderly people waiting to get in for the jab no social distancing whatso ever I do understand that it is going to be difficult getting these jabs done its probably a price you have to pay, I really think someone from the surgery should be organising it though.

I had the flu jab on Saturday as they've lowered the age. Now that was impressive. Well marshalled, ten desks with people giving the jab, despite being very busy I was in an out in minutes. It was at the local comprehensive school, obviously they can't use them midweek but would be ideal for weekends for Covid jabs.

We have two clinically vulnerable in the family and they still haven't heard a scooby yet.

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by JNW1

We have got data on the effect of Covid on different age groups though and thus far it seems to suggest quite clearly that age - and whether someone has an underlying condition - are significant factors in determining how people respond to being infected by the virus.

If you choose not to believe that data - and think the effect on younger age groups is being downplayed and they're at a greater risk than is being suggested - that's obviously your prerogative but if that's the case what's making you come to that view?

Even if the evidence showed that, for you personally, driving lots of miles was a greater risk to your life than catching Covid?

Last point first, the evidence doesn't show that.

First point:
Data is not hard to find for when you catch it eg.
Dr Lucy Okell, a co-author of the study from Imperial College London, said: "Although the elderly are by far at the highest risk of dying due to COVID-19, the risk in middle age is still high. For example, we estimate that around 1 in 260 people aged 50-55 years die if infected.

I'm 48 so that number is good enough for me.

Where there is no data, as I commented, is for number of cases with no restrictions.

Now, no restrictions and low take up of vaccine. My chances of catching covid would become high. Call it 100% chance of catching it within 12 months, call it 50%, I don't much care.

You're welcome to suggest that other activities are as high risk, but I think you will struggle.

Now, if there was a low vaccine take up and restrictions were lifted simply because your high risk groups are now safe, we let loose all the under 50s and something around those numbers above start dying. It's going to be a problem.

Which is why it's a good thing that there will be high vaccine take up and that will see the numbers drop and restrictions get lifted. But the numbers have to drop, and stay down, for this to work.

[Hooded]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

Waiting in the cold is very bad, should not be happening. My experience in supermarkets suggests that the lack of social distancing is by choice, though.

That particular example may also be made worse by telephoto foreshortening. Editors found this extremely useful when attempting to demonstrate that we had 1 human being per square foot of sand on Bournemouth beach, back in the heady liberated days of summer.

That particular example was the first one that came up on google, I couldn’t find the pic of my local one I saw on Facebook quite recently, that one was shocking (taken by someone who actually went to get the vaccine and was shocked and concerned by the no social distancing), All old people huddled up close together by the door waiting to go in.
You won’t find me amongst them in that scenario even when I am finally happy to get a vaccine.

Supermarkets can be horrendous, you have to pick your time to visit strategically!

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by Hooded

No ones touched really on the lack on social distancing and high risk at the vaccine centres so far. This needs sorting out urgently if they want to encourage more people to get the vaccine ..

I would say that's the wrong angle to take the picture from to show how far people are apart, two people that are overlapping from that angle can appear to be stood together when in fact they are 6+ feet apart.

Some of the news papers did show zoomed in pictures of beaches from certain angles that gave the impression everyone was shoulder to shoulder yet a standard view from the side told a different story, not saying that's the case but if you were trying to show how far people were apart you wouldn't take the picture from that angle.

[Harryg]

Originally Posted by JR1664

I had the flu jab on Saturday as they've lowered the age. Now that was impressive. Well marshalled, ten desks with people giving the jab, despite being very busy I was in an out in minutes. It was at the local comprehensive school, obviously they can't use them midweek but would be ideal for weekends for Covid jabs.

We have two clinically vulnerable in the family and they still haven't heard a scooby yet.

Well done and well organised.

[Hooded]

Originally Posted by Wills2

I would say that's the wrong angle to take the picture from to show how far people are apart, two people that are overlapping from that angle can appear to be stood together when in fact they are 6+ feet apart.

Some of the news papers did show zoomed in pictures of beaches from certain angles that gave the impression everyone was shoulder to shoulder yet a standard view from the side told a different story, not saying that's the case but if you were trying to show how far people were apart you wouldn't take the picture from that angle.

See my follow up post above

[Harryg]

Originally Posted by Hooded

That particular example was the first one that came up on google, I couldn’t find the pic of my local one I saw on Facebook quite recently, that one was shocking (taken by someone who actually went to get the vaccine and was shocked and concerned by the no social distancing), All old people huddled up close together by the door waiting to go in.
You won’t find me amongst them in that scenario even when I am finally happy to get a vaccine.

Supermarkets can be horrendous, you have to pick your time to visit strategically!

Hopefully you will have had the vaccine by the time your their age.

[Hooded]

Originally Posted by Harryg

Hopefully you will have had the vaccine by the time your their age.

I’ll have it (one of them) before I’m 50 No doubt

[3-GT]

There's a lot of questions about the vaccine may not stop people from spreading the virus.

The government describe the vaccine as an 'exit strategy'. However as most of the public will hopefully not get ill (creating more asymptomatic spreaders) after receiving the vaccine, the virus will circulate undetected even more than now. But it'll look OK as the recorded cases/deaths will look low.

So for some of those who will not see a benefit from the vaccine it will be a matter of time before they eventually succumb to the virus.

Do we need a vaccine that stops the spread just as much as one that protects against the illness?

[RobUK]

Originally Posted by 3-GT

There's a lot of questions about the vaccine may not stop people from spreading the virus.

The government describe the vaccine as an 'exit strategy'. However as most of the public will hopefully not get ill (creating more asymptomatic spreaders) after receiving the vaccine, the virus will circulate undetected even more than now. But it'll look OK as the recorded cases/deaths will look low.

So for some of those who will not see a benefit from the vaccine it will be a matter of time before they eventually succumb to the virus.

Do we need a vaccine that stops the spread just as much as one that protects against the illness?

I would add that an important but seldom talked about tool in our arsenal against this virus is one or more therapeutic drugs that are effective at drastically reducing fatalities in symptomatic patients.

I am aware that an Interferon Beta trial has started in the UK, but it seems that while great strides have been made in the production of vaccines, we don't appear to have had similar successes in drug treatments. Maybe it's because trials of such are much more difficult or there's some other scientific reason for this that I don't understand, perhaps CajunBMW has an idea. But if we also had drugs that could stop 95% of those with severe symptoms from dying, then we'd be in an even better place. It would be great news for those that either can't have the vaccine or for whom the vaccine didn't work who must be feeling a little left out.

[Watsey]

Originally Posted by 3-GT

Do we need a vaccine that stops the spread just as much as one that protects against the illness?

They are, in effect, one and the same. A vaccination programme increases the number of people who become resistant/immune to the disease - the virus is not able to significantly replicate within the cells of a new host and therefore onward transmission is reduced or halted.

Until a sufficient number of people have been vaccinated we have to rely of physical intervention to reduce or prevent transmission, i.e. masks / distancing / washing hands / ventilation.