[225]

Seeing the Pm annoyed after they basically told her no was a good thing today. I hope she stays angry and does take it to the wire, pompous autocratic to55ers.

Is it any wonder anti EU sentiment is growing so much when they have the most lavish meal possible and most of them act the way they do.

I am genuinely worried about a no deal exit but I am also hoping she does finally grow a pair and tell them to f off and come back when your ready to deal.

oh and Labour's response... not to rule out an Indy ref 2.. The sum total of their policy on Europe. Do anything to try and grab power.

[mikeoz]

Embarrassing May is usless. They proper done her over and she didn't see it coming..

Check out this from Donald Tusk Instagram and the caption... They are Trolling the PM now..

[mikeoz]

I think they have just made the call to walk away even stronger now.

[Watsey]

From the EU responses today, it's looking increasingly like a clean break. I thought we were on the verge of a softening of the EU single market utopia and some blurring of their red lines, but the anti-UK stance seems to be strengthening. The UK's second major attempt at catalysing EU reform, the first being the pre-referendum discussions led by "cut 'n' run" Cameron, has apparently failed - for the time being at least.

Chequers is in tatters. Perhaps now is the time to step back and let the EU come forward with proposals.

[JNW1]

Still not sure whether or not the EU are just posturing but I think we now need to tell them in no uncertain terms "we want to establish a trade deal which is in the best interests of both parties but if you don't just tell us so we can all stop wasting our time". Personally I wouldn't be inclined to compromise with them any further so if they want to stick rigidly to their precious principles - and cut their collective noses to spite their faces in doing so - then let them and we all move on.

However, our overwhelmingly pro-Remain Parliament is unlikely to take a similar view and I suspect the EU knows it. I think there's every chance our MP's would vote down a No Deal proposal which would probably mean the end of the current government and a general election; if the Lib Dems and Labour both fight that on a Remain ticket and collectively win enough seats to have an overall majority then Brexit could yet be reversed IMO. I think that's what the EU's hoping for so no great surprise they're adopting the stance they are....

[mikeoz]

I think they have miscalculated this. If this is how they treat us we should walk. They have put massive pressure on May now by the way they have come out with the statements.

[mikeoz]

Originally Posted by Watsey

From the EU responses today, it's looking increasingly like a clean break. I thought we were on the verge of a softening of the EU single market utopia and some blurring of their red lines, but the anti-UK stance seems to be strengthening. The UK's second major attempt at catalysing EU reform, the first being the pre-referendum discussions led by "cut 'n' run" Cameron, has apparently failed - for the time being at least.

Chequers is in tatters. Perhaps now is the time to step back and let the EU come forward with proposals.

Agree about being in the verge. All the press briefing from both sides were indicating this. Then they shaft her with that Tusk statement.

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by mikeoz

Embarrassing May is usless.

Honestly I always see posts like this and imagine just how powerful and rich and successful the author must be to make such a comment.

Please do regale the forum with your geopolitical successes....

[Scoobyd]

The arrogance of the EU... it’s hardly new news. May is as stubborn as old boots and her watered down Chequers plan was never going to wash be it here or over there. They’ve humiliated her today, openly mocked her.

It’s time to walk away. Our referendum resulted in a leave outcome. Like it or not. So let’s do exactly that. They’d soon come knocking on our door if we did. If only we had people in power with enough about them to do it. Theresa the appeaser certainly isn’t the one.

[teaston]

As I said a few days ago, no way the EU was going to accept the deal, they want to force another referendum, let’s hope they do the vote goes the correct way this time and we can all just get the fuck on with our lives!

[JD6]

The implied probability of a second referendum being called is still 25-30% which is probably about right

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...-eu-referendum

Interesting to see how this changes over the next couple of months. If there is no soft Brexit deal pulled out of the hat in November, and no deal becomes the only available Leave option (which is pretty unpalatable to the vast majority of MPs) I imagine the chances of a second referendum will jump.

[Jimbob335DX]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Still not sure whether or not the EU are just posturing but I think we now need to tell them in no uncertain terms "we want to establish a trade deal which is in the best interests of both parties but if you don't just tell us so we can all stop wasting our time". Personally I wouldn't be inclined to compromise with them any further so if they want to stick rigidly to their precious principles - and cut their collective noses to spite their faces in doing so - then let them and we all move on.

However, our overwhelmingly pro-Remain Parliament is unlikely to take a similar view and I suspect the EU knows it. I think there's every chance our MP's would vote down a No Deal proposal which would probably mean the end of the current government and a general election; if the Lib Dems and Labour both fight that on a Remain ticket and collectively win enough seats to have an overall majority then Brexit could yet be reversed IMO. I think that's what the EU's hoping for so no great surprise they're adopting the stance they are....

I think this outcome you suggest suits TM down to the ground. She is remain at heart and although has followed the brexit means brexit path, this whole "my way or no way" attitude, hasnt hidden the fact that she really has not found a way to come out of this in a strong position. She can chuck her hand in now, saying she's "done her best" going into the final round.
I would say it suits her to resign on a no deal outcome, and leave it to Boris to take the helm of a no deal departure, which would lend to a november leadership election. I'm not sure Hunt will want to step on Boris toes this time. And then a spring general election, after brexit happens. Which just might be JC's last stand.
The media would love it.
I can't see TM leading out a no deal scenario. I'm not sure that she has the metal to stand in front of the commons and say, "my way wasn't the way". One thing I haven't got my head around is what commons will vote on, if the eu, say no deal, they can't reject a no deal, like they could a bad deal.
I think we are on for a few more weeks of tooing and froing yet.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by Jimbob335DX

One thing I haven't got my head around is what commons will vote on, if the eu, say no deal, they can't reject a no deal, like they could a bad deal.

Parliament get to vote on whatever is proposed as the final outcome, whether a Chequers-lite or a no deal. So presented with just a no deal option, they can either support it and leave on that basis, or not.

If they vote to reject the no deal option, I think there would have to be another referendum at that point with 2 clear options. Leave with no deal, or Remain. Given the small majority last time, and the fact that those who would want no deal are a subset of the 51.9%, the most likely outcome of a referendum must be Remain.

[Scoobyd]

Originally Posted by JD6

Parliament get to vote on whatever is proposed as the final outcome, whether a Chequers-lite or a no deal. So presented with just a no deal option, they can either support it and leave on that basis, or not.

If they vote to reject the no deal option, I think there would have to be another referendum at that point with 2 clear options. Leave with no deal, or Remain. Given the small majority last time, and the fact that those who would want no deal are a subset of the 51.9%, the most likely outcome of a referendum must be Remain.

A second referendum simply won’t happen. There’s more chance of a general election than that. Besides, I think the outcome of a second referendum would surprise a lot of people (who want one) and leave us in an even deeper mess. So thankfully, there won’t be one!

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by teaston

As I said a few days ago, no way the EU was going to accept the deal, they want to force another referendum, let’s hope they do the vote goes the correct way this time and we can all just get the fuck on with our lives!

In any negotiation, you will never get real progress until it’s shit or bust time. Let’s see what the next two months bring.

Correct way?ah, because only remainders know what is correct....

[Bibbles]

Apart from the deep insight we all gain from Lobb's Brexit ramblings, this speech is about the most informed and accurate thing I've read about where we currently are in the process and what both sides really need to think about during the negotiations from here on in. It's a shame the government didn't listen to him and use him in the negotiations.

http://www.britishirishchamber.com/2...l-gala-dinner/

[JD6]

Originally Posted by LobB

The chances of a third referendum are zero. We had the second referendum. You lost.

The market puts the chance of another referendum at 25-30% which seems a reasonable estimate to me. If you're right that the chance is actually zero, then there is a lot of money to be made by betting against it, unless you are all mouth and no trousers.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by LobB

Given that there is no decisive change in views from the second referendum (taking an average of all polls), not only is there not going to be a third referendum, the result would be the same.
In these final five and a half months until we leave, you'd be better preparing yourself for exit, rather than betting the farm on something that's not going to happen.

As I have said to you, I still view the chances of Leaving (probably some soft Brexit fudge) as more likely than a second referendum. There wouldn't be a lot of point for me to bet if the market agrees with my view.

In your situation there would be a lot of point, since you are way out of line with the market, but then that would take some backbone.

[mikeoz]

I think we are more likely to have another GE if they don't get what ever deal though parliament thus forcing Govt to resign.
They don't really have the time for another referendum with out extending Art 50 which many MPs will not go with.

[Tengocity]

I was thinking Salzburg looked a nice place to visit. Anyone been?

[Watsey]

Originally Posted by JD6

Parliament get to vote on whatever is proposed as the final outcome, whether a Chequers-lite or a no deal. So presented with just a no deal option, they can either support it and leave on that basis, or not.

If they vote to reject the no deal option, I think there would have to be another referendum at that point with 2 clear options. Leave with no deal, or Remain. Given the small majority last time, and the fact that those who would want no deal are a subset of the 51.9%, the most likely outcome of a referendum must be Remain.

Even if there were a second referendum (incredibly unlikely) I wouldn't be so sure of the outcome. Many people, seeing the EU's intransigence and disregard for moderation and reform in the real world, are hardening against EU membership. We Brits are a stubborn lot, founded on very strong principles, and have always been willing to stand by those principles come what may.

What I'm about to say next will probably trigger a backlash of comments : it's not statistically reliable; it's only one audience in a country of 60+ million; etc. I accept that a TV programme does not talk for the mood of the entire nation, but QT does select a balanced audience in terms of gender, ethnicity and political persuasion.

Question Time, Dewsbury, was interesting last night. Despite Vince Cable's whinging and whining "we should be staying in" (one man's opinion, but not reflective of the outcome of the referendum) only around 30% favoured a second referendum (or people's vote, or whatever "it's not a referendum" label you want to hang on it) and even less favoured a general election. To throw the country into political turmoil at this time would be suicide in terms of negotiating a deal with the EU - it would be playing entirely into the hands of the 27 heads and Barnier who would, quite rightly, wait for the UK to sort itself out whilst wasting weeks if not months of the negotiation phase. I don't think May would want to leave the role of PM in the same manner that Cameron did - he choked after the referendum, ducked the responsibility of the role and ran for cover, preferring to write a book and schmooze the after dinner speaking circuit. May has always been regarded as a strong and principled person - I think she would want to protect her integrity and reputation rather than throw the towel in.

A change of government would only weaken the UK's negotiating position. A Labour negotiating team would destroy the UK's negotiating position. Have you watched Corbyn speak ? He doesn't seem to stand for anything : mumbling general platitudes and ideals yet not able to influence his own Party to align to a single set of values.

Negotiating the terms of trade must be the #1 priority until the deal is done. A general election can come later.

I'm not going to remind people of the date that we leave the EU, because I'm not Lobb

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by LobB

Given that there is no decisive change in views from the second referendum (taking an average of all polls), not only is there not going to be a third referendum, the result would be the same.
In these final five and a half months until we leave, you'd be better preparing yourself for exit, rather than betting the farm on something that's not going to happen.

Your 'third' referendum drum beats nearly as loudly as 29.03.19

It's quite common for people to refer to a second referendum as a possibility, especially if they weren't born or too young to remember the 1975 one.

I'm still hanging on to the hope of another vote, or the even less likely possibility of our elected representatives voting for their own beliefs, as we entrusted them to do.