Pound vs euro after brexit, what do we think?

Broncho · 09-22-2018, 03:12 PM

Some, and I mean some useful bods on here.

My father in law has a large sum of cash to pay off in Espana, he has recently released cash from a project that will pay it off, question is, pay it now or gamble on exchange rates after brexit.

I spend a lot of time in Spain and the rate now is obviously shat, question is do we think it’ll be up or down after March?

EDIT it’s not another brexit thread, this is just about exchange rates.

speedski · 09-22-2018, 03:15 PM

No deal is going to absolutely break us on major euro investments.

If that happens my employer is already looking to move people to the US (they are visa harvesting already....).

Between May, Brexit and Trumpy boy this is gonna be a fun year!

Broncho · 09-22-2018, 03:32 PM

Question is will it get better than this?

JustChris · 09-22-2018, 03:43 PM

Could he manage the risk by paying off 1/2 now and 1/2 post March 19?

No win in that approach but no regret or gamble either?

Broncho · 09-22-2018, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustChris

Could he manage the risk by paying off 1/2 now and 1/2 post March 19?

No win in that approach but no regret or gamble either?

Maybe but in my mind I’m thinking it can’t get worse? Can it?

mikeoz · 09-22-2018, 03:49 PM

Well it has dropped again due to saltzburg fiasco but if they do get some sort of deal by end of her no doubt will rocket on the back of that... difficult one really. Personally I wouldn't do it right now..

Broncho · 09-22-2018, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikeoz

Well it has dropped again due to saltzburg fiasco but if they do get some sort of deal by end of her no doubt will rocket on the back of that... difficult one really. Personally I wouldn't do it right now..

That’s what I’ve said to him, keep it in the bank and see what happens.

Broncho · 09-22-2018, 06:08 PM

Fuck all then.

LobB must be having a date night with his sister.

teaston · 09-22-2018, 06:42 PM

There’s either going to be a deal or there’s going to be another referendum and we stay in the EU, either way the pound is going to increase in value afterwards.

MashinBenzin · 09-23-2018, 12:36 AM

As a GUESS I'd go on sell the rumour, buy the news - a reverse to the norm. A panicky drop beforehand and then a rise in strength rapidly after no deal. This will then be followed by it heading in either direction as normal.

MashinBenzin · 09-23-2018, 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Broncho

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustChris

Could he manage the risk by paying off 1/2 now and 1/2 post March 19?

No win in that approach but no regret or gamble either?

Maybe but in my mind I’m thinking it can’t get worse? Can it?

It can definitely get worse (or better). Financial markets know how to a) panic and b) make a profit.

After black Wednesday in 1992 there was a 17% decline and a similar one followed the Brexit vote. Another hammering is not out of the question.

I'm not predicting either way - if I was that clever then I'd be long retired. If i was Broncho Snr, I wouldn't choose this as the time to gamble. If he wanted to there are easier and more lucrative punts than currency markets. Pay off 100% now or pay 90% and take some crypto currency punts with the 10% - having first done a mountain of research and practice trades. I only suggest (half-heartedly) the latter as anyone with the balls to suggest betting on currency with large stakes clearly has a huge appetite for risk

Andy440 · 09-23-2018, 01:41 AM

Take a look at the option forward rates to get an idea of market feeling, perhaps even buy one depending on price.

Abdul Karim · 09-23-2018, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy440

Take a look at the option forward rates to get an idea of market feeling, perhaps even buy one depending on price.

Traders are taking short positions on sterling to profit from the FX volititily that will happen between now and March. The swings will get more violent as exit date gets closer. Certainly money to be made

MashinBenzin · 09-24-2018, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Count Bernd Von Ottovorde

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy440

Take a look at the option forward rates to get an idea of market feeling, perhaps even buy one depending on price.

Traders are taking short positions on sterling to profit from the FX volititily that will happen between now and March. The swings will get more violent as exit date gets closer. Certainly money to be made

There is always money to be made on currency, especially with high leverage. The trick is timing and picking the right direction

GBR1 · 09-24-2018, 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teaston

There’s either going to be a deal or there’s going to be another referendum and we stay in the EU, either way the pound is going to increase in value afterwards.

I hope your right!

JD6 · 09-24-2018, 03:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

There is always money to be made on currency, especially with high leverage. The trick is timing and picking the right direction

True, and a significant majority of small traders (those outside an investment bank) lose money on these types of trade.

This the main reason why spread betting is exempt from capital gains tax - allowable losses would be greater than taxable gains, so it's to the government's advantage to exempt them.

Abdul Karim · 09-24-2018, 04:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

There is always money to be made on currency, especially with high leverage. The trick is timing and picking the right direction

Which is why volitily is so loved by traders

MashinBenzin · 09-24-2018, 04:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JD6

Quote:

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

There is always money to be made on currency, especially with high leverage. The trick is timing and picking the right direction

True, and a significant majority of small traders (those outside an investment bank) lose money on these types of trade.

This the main reason why spread betting is exempt from capital gains tax - allowable losses would be greater than taxable gains, so it's to the government's advantage to exempt them.

Yep, you wouldn't get me within a million miles of one

definitely a professional's job.

MashinBenzin · 09-24-2018, 04:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Count Bernd Von Ottovorde

Quote:

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

There is always money to be made on currency, especially with high leverage. The trick is timing and picking the right direction

Which is why volitily is so loved by traders

To quote your Cheshire-based brother - 'indeed'

GEP77 · 09-24-2018, 08:32 AM

How the exchange rate moves in the short term after the March deadline will I think be determined by the end result of the negotiations.

In the event of a truly hard brexit (no deal, no agreements, trade at WTO only etc) then sterling will likely drop sharply in value.

In the event of a negotiated deal or a time extension to allow for a negotiated deal then I think it will be fairly static.

In the event of a massive about turn (which is pretty unlikely but still technically possible) and the UK stays in the EU then there is likely to be a sharp increase in the value of sterling.

As far a longer term goes it's certainly too early to tell.

teaston · 09-24-2018, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LobB

Quote:

Originally Posted by teaston

There’s either going to be a deal or there’s going to be another referendum and we stay in the EU, either way the pound is going to increase in value afterwards.

Your drugs are better than mine

You think it's going to be a no deal?

:

JustChris · 09-24-2018, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teaston

You think it's going to be a no deal?

:

Everyone thinks that don't they?

09-22-2018, 03:12 PM	#1
Broncho Banned 2310 Rep 5,101 Posts Drives: Chav white Mercedes Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Rainhill iTrader: (0)	Pound vs euro after brexit, what do we think? Some, and I mean some useful bods on here. My father in law has a large sum of cash to pay off in Espana, he has recently released cash from a project that will pay it off, question is, pay it now or gamble on exchange rates after brexit. I spend a lot of time in Spain and the rate now is obviously shat, question is do we think it’ll be up or down after March? EDIT it’s not another brexit thread, this is just about exchange rates.
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09-22-2018, 03:15 PM	#2
speedski Major 547 Rep 1,066 Posts Drives: Former F40/F36/E81/E85 Owner Join Date: Jan 2018 Location: United Kingdom iTrader: (0)	No deal is going to absolutely break us on major euro investments. If that happens my employer is already looking to move people to the US (they are visa harvesting already....). Between May, Brexit and Trumpy boy this is gonna be a fun year!
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09-22-2018, 03:32 PM	#3
Broncho Banned 2310 Rep 5,101 Posts Drives: Chav white Mercedes Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Rainhill iTrader: (0)	Question is will it get better than this? Attached Images
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09-22-2018, 03:43 PM	#4
JustChris General 17486 Rep 25,112 Posts Drives: Tesla MYRWD Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: UK iTrader: (0)	Could he manage the risk by paying off 1/2 now and 1/2 post March 19? No win in that approach but no regret or gamble either? __________________ My car made front page of Bimmerpost
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09-22-2018, 03:49 PM	#6
mikeoz Major General 2856 Rep 5,607 Posts Drives: BMW X3 M40d LCI Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: cambs iTrader: (1)	Well it has dropped again due to saltzburg fiasco but if they do get some sort of deal by end of her no doubt will rocket on the back of that... difficult one really. Personally I wouldn't do it right now..
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09-22-2018, 06:08 PM	#8
Broncho Banned 2310 Rep 5,101 Posts Drives: Chav white Mercedes Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Rainhill iTrader: (0)	Fuck all then. LobB must be having a date night with his sister.
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09-22-2018, 06:42 PM	#9
teaston Banned 10995 Rep 32,881 Posts Drives: X3 M40d Join Date: May 2012 Location: The High Seas iTrader: (1)	There’s either going to be a deal or there’s going to be another referendum and we stay in the EU, either way the pound is going to increase in value afterwards.
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09-23-2018, 12:36 AM	#10
MashinBenzin Major General 8453 Rep 8,780 Posts Drives: Eiger D5 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: UK iTrader: (0)	As a GUESS I'd go on sell the rumour, buy the news - a reverse to the norm. A panicky drop beforehand and then a rise in strength rapidly after no deal. This will then be followed by it heading in either direction as normal. __________________ Drives - 2020 LR Discovery HSE-L Previous - 2019 LR Discovery HSE-L // 2016 F36 440i // 2009 E90 320D SE
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09-23-2018, 01:41 AM	#12
Andy440 Private 23 Rep 86 Posts Drives: 440i GC SRB Join Date: Jan 2017 Location: Kent iTrader: (0)	Take a look at the option forward rates to get an idea of market feeling, perhaps even buy one depending on price.
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09-24-2018, 08:32 AM	#20
GEP77 Major 409 Rep 1,162 Posts Drives: Tesla Model 3 Long Range. Join Date: Nov 2013 Location: South East London iTrader: (1)	How the exchange rate moves in the short term after the March deadline will I think be determined by the end result of the negotiations. In the event of a truly hard brexit (no deal, no agreements, trade at WTO only etc) then sterling will likely drop sharply in value. In the event of a negotiated deal or a time extension to allow for a negotiated deal then I think it will be fairly static. In the event of a massive about turn (which is pretty unlikely but still technically possible) and the UK stays in the EU then there is likely to be a sharp increase in the value of sterling. As far a longer term goes it's certainly too early to tell.
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