[TodmordenLad]

Originally Posted by Wills2

I had to laugh today on the JOB radio show on LBC, A brexiter called in and stated his reason for wanting to leave was freedom of movement, at that point he was asked where was he calling from......Portugal.

What a plank.
I think that the researchers who filter callers before they go on air tend to select them for their entertainment value more than anything else. Balanced, rational debate doesn't make for a good phone-in show and certainly doesn't help ratings. It seems to apply from LBC up to and including R4s Any Answers.

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by TodmordenLad

What a plank.
I think that the researchers who filter callers before they go on air tend to select them for their entertainment value more than anything else. Balanced, rational debate doesn't make for a good phone-in show and certainly doesn't help ratings. It seems to apply from LBC up to and including R4s Any Answers.

Yeah it was clear O'Brian knew where he was calling from and the guy just walked straight into it.

I voted to leave! Why? Er to leave! Yes but why did you want to leave? Errrrrrr.....

[JD6]

Originally Posted by BrennanF30

We voted remain in Northern Ireland, we never asked for any of this, and if this has done anything, it has pushed us even closer to a United Ireland referendum and with the way things are going Scotland will not be part of the precious union much longer either.

While I think the vote for Brexit was an act of self-harm, largely by the naive and easily led, if it goes ahead, there is at least some upside to a united Ireland. Land borders are often problematic so I can see why a united Ireland will have some appeal in removing the need for one.

Conversely, Scottish independence is all downside for them as far as I can see. In a post-Brexit world, it would create a new land border with by far their largest trading partner. Their exports to the rest of the EU are tiny compared with the remainder of the UK. That doesn't mean it won't happen of course - logic may be overcome by a flag-waving Braveheart marketing campaign to lure the hard-of-thinking.

If Scotland wonders how the negotiations with a much larger partner will go, and what kind of deal they will get, there is a pretty good example happening right now. And of course the UK is a net contributor to the EU, unlike Scotland to the UK, so they would be in a particularly weak position. It's going to take a lot of verses of the Flower of Scotland to convince people...

[Wills2]

One issue is can Dublin afford a united Ireland as NI costs the UK more than our net contributions to the EU at 9 billion a year, I'd like to think that the EU would provide Ireland with funding to make that happen as it will strengthen the EU to have a united ROI

Scotland on the other hand has great strategic value to the UK and the act of union was a proactive act on both sides not a land grab by either party.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by JD6

While I think the vote for Brexit was an act of self-harm, largely by the naive and easily led, if it goes ahead, there is at least some upside to a united Ireland. Land borders are often problematic so I can see why a united Ireland will have some appeal in removing the need for one.

As an outsider looking in I can see a lot of logic to a united Ireland (and not just because of the current Brexit situation). However, history suggests anyone attempting to go down that route would need to tread very carefully; unless a majority in NI are in favour of reunification it's a complete non starter in my view. That said, if Brexit happens perhaps a majority may indeed start to think reunification with the RoI offers them a better future?

Originally Posted by Wills2

One issue is can Dublin afford a united Ireland as NI costs the UK more than our net contributions to the EU at 9 billion a year, I'd like to think that the EU would provide Ireland with funding to make that happen as it will strengthen the EU to have a united ROI

If the UK leaves would the remaining members of the EU be willing and able to help fund a united Ireland; I daresay they'd be prepared to offer some short-term assistance but long-term? However, I guess a reunified Ireland would eventually just find its place in the EU funding table; I think the RoI are currently small net contributors but that would no doubt change to a net beneficiary if NI was included? In any event, assuming the UK leaves it will fall mainly on Germany to bankroll things so much will depend on the state of their economy...

[Wills2]

Time to cast Ni to the side, that tail has been wagging the dog for far too long, lets save ourselves £9 billion a year and be able to run the country without being held to ransom by 10 backward creationists MPs.

[TodmordenLad]

Originally Posted by Wills2

Time to cast Ni to the side, that tail has been wagging the dog for far too long, lets save ourselves £9 billion a year and be able to run the country without being held to ransom by 10 backward creationists MPs.

I'm sure that the promise of a few £billion from Joker Johnson will change Foster's stance before too long

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by TodmordenLad

I'm sure that the promise of a few £billion from Joker Johnson will change Foster's stance before too long

It's mental that they are able to hold the whole of the UK to ransom they can't even be bothered to sit in their assembly and do their jobs.

Anyway, Boris's deal has had a warm welcome this morning, not......

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by Wills2

Time to cast Ni to the side, that tail has been wagging the dog for far too long, lets save ourselves £9 billion a year and be able to run the country without being held to ransom by 10 backward creationists MPs.

I agree the numbers in Parliament have given the DUP a disproportionate influence for the last couple of years but even without their support there should be sufficient MP's who stood on a manifesto of honouring the outcome of the 2016 referendum to get a revised deal through Parliament.

However, whether they'll vote to do so is another matter entirely. I suspect many of those who claimed to be opposed only to no deal were actually opposed to any form of Brexit so a vote on the latest deal will smoke them out. As someone commented on another forum, there's nothing like the endgame to get people to show their true colours....

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by JNW1

I agree the numbers in Parliament have given the DUP a disproportionate influence for the last couple of years but even without their support there should be sufficient MP's who stood on a manifesto of honouring the outcome of the 2016 referendum to get a revised deal through Parliament.

However, whether they'll vote to do so is another matter entirely. I suspect many of those who claimed to be opposed only to no deal were actually opposed to any form of Brexit so a vote on the latest deal will smoke them out. As someone commented on another forum, there's nothing like the endgame to get people to show their true colours....

I agree. Will be interesting who has the guts to stick by their principles, where they know deep down Brexit is a fuck up that's only just begun for our country.

Or whether they'll follow the mob mentality that's taken over our country and politics and take the easy vote.

Personally, I'd rather just we just went with a deal and got on with fucking our country up. Quicker we do it, quicker we can fix it.

However, if I was a politician and I might just feel that I couldn't be responsible for it, and I might feel more principled.

I don't believe that a politician should just do as their constituents say, they are there to represent and make educated decisions for them, not follow through uneducated orders. No other policy decisions are made this way.

[mcoops]

Originally Posted by Wills2

Yeah it was clear O'Brian knew where he was calling from and the guy just walked straight into it.

I voted to leave! Why? Er to leave! Yes but why did you want to leave? Errrrrrr.....

I think I must be the last person in universe who hadn't ever listened to LBC, until last night. I happened to tune in bored on my commute home, and was taken aback at how partisan the host was, as well as sounding awfully familiar. It then dawned on me that it was Farage! I then spent the next 10 mins being simultaneously amused and appalled at the totally self-serving, arse-licking love-in that ensued. 'Nigel, I wish you were PM...', 'Gosh, how awfully lovely of you to phone in and say so...'

[mikeoz]

I cant see this "Deal" getting though Parliament?

[Bibbles]

Christ, we could have been at this point a couple of years ago if May hadn't torpedoed her majority and had to rely on the loony's in the DUP.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by mikeoz

I cant see this "Deal" getting though Parliament?

Well, Juncker has apparently said this afternoon that no further extension will be granted beyond the current October 31st deadline (he sees it as unnecessary as there's now a deal agreed and on the table).

Could of course just be posturing on his part - and an attempt to encourage our MP's to approve the revised deal - but if he's genuine and speaks for the EU as a whole it sounds like it's this deal or No Deal. Therefore, given the one thing Parliament has voted against consistently is No Deal, perhaps the Boris deal does have a chance of getting through?

[Dyl]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Well, Juncker has apparently said this afternoon that no further extension will be granted beyond the current October 31st deadline (he sees it as unnecessary as there's now a deal agreed and on the table).

Could of course just be posturing on his part - and an attempt to encourage our MP's to approve the revised deal - but if he's genuine and speaks for the EU as a whole it sounds like it's this deal or No Deal. Therefore, given the one thing Parliament has voted against consistently is No Deal, perhaps the Boris deal does have a chance of getting through?

This has been widely debunked by people with good understanding of it. Apparently it is not a decision he can make.

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by Bibbles

Christ, we could have been at this point a couple of years ago if May hadn't torpedoed her majority and had to rely on the loony's in the DUP.

Boris and has doubled down on that and has -41

[inkiboo]

I'm conflicted.

I don't think it's a great deal but Nigel hates it. Hmmmmm.

[Broncho]

Originally Posted by inkiboo

I'm conflicted.

I don't think it's a great deal but Nigel hates it. Hmmmmm.

I’m conflicted because I’m fed up of hearing about it and just want the deed done even though it’s a stupid idea. However if the pound keeps rising on the back of it I might buy a holiday home.

[gIzzE]

Originally Posted by Broncho

I’m conflicted because I’m fed up of hearing about it and just want the deed done even though it’s a stupid idea. However if the pound keeps rising on the back of it I might buy a holiday home.

I would hold off mate.

Anyone who has been following the economic state of the EU and more so the Euro, will know it is teetering on the edge. You might pick up 6 bed villa for the price of a 1 bed apartment next year.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by Dyl

This has been widely debunked by people with good understanding of it. Apparently it is not a decision he can make.

Indeed and as my post suggested it could well have just been an attempt to encourage UK MP's into supporting the revised deal. Whether it has any affect remains to be seen - personally I think it's unlikely the EU would refuse a further extension if it was to facilitate something like a UK General Election but who knows? After all, it only takes one of EU 27 heads of state to say no to an extension and it doesn't happen.

However, in terms of the vote on the deal tomorrow, I still think it's a bit of an assumption to say - as another poster did - they can't see it getting through. In fairness it might not but all the talk seems to be of the numbers being very tight and it's likely to be a close run thing tomorrow - I wouldn't want to call it one way or the other at the moment.

[gIzzE]

It is another shit deal, personally the EU, or rather the Euro project is nearly dead in the water, negative coupons on 10 and 30 years from Germany says it all.

€80b a month in QE again starting from last month while they try and work out if they can save it.

Target2 payment system that is now hiding the increase in debt from the peripheries (Germany now owed €trillion through T2).

We are looking at the equivalent of someone who has 3 cars financed on the drive, a huge mortgage, loans that exceed their income and £100k of credit cards that have not been paid for 5 years and now coming to the end of the interest free period, who is now working Saturdays in McDonalds to pay for it all.

Will the ECB keep lending to them? Probably.
Should the ECB keep lending to them? Of course not.

I genuinely don't understand why anyone would want to be tied into bailing this mess out.
We will get burnt when it all goes tits up anyway, we will no doubt help out regardless, but we all need our sovereignty and more importantly the ability to control the economic structure of our own nations to handle the ups and downs properly. Thank god we never joined the Euro.

The EU project itself is fine, the Euro is not and will see the demise of the EU.
The only way it can survive moving forward is tighter integration and everyone on a total even keel, which, can only work if every one races to the bottom. Not what the Germans signed up for.


So, as much as I would like out, I would vote Johnsons deal as there are too many in parliament who have no real understanding about the economic state the EU is in and will do whatever they can to scupper a clean break, they simply can't see passed the short term and see the bigger picture.

This does seem better than staying in completely, only just, but it is better than tearing up Article 50.

So you have two sides voting for Johnson, those who think like me, and those that are petrified of the alternative, leaving on WTO.
I think it will get through.


The only issue is Corbyn. Whatever Johnson says Corbyn will argue against it.
And god forbid anyone in Labour who goes against him.
Sunday, Corbyn "I would never tell people what to do, all I can do is try and reason with my party to vote how we feel is best."
Yesterday, Corbyn warns his party about voting for Johnson's deal.
The guy is a sociapath.

[Wills2]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Indeed and as my post suggested it could well have just been an attempt to encourage UK MP's into supporting the revised deal. Whether it has any affect remains to be seen - personally I think it's unlikely the EU would refuse a further extension if it was to facilitate something like a UK General Election but who knows? After all, it only takes one of EU 27 heads of state to say no to an extension and it doesn't happen.

However, in terms of the vote on the deal tomorrow, I still think it's a bit of an assumption to say - as another poster did - they can't see it getting through. In fairness it might not but all the talk seems to be of the numbers being very tight and it's likely to be a close run thing tomorrow - I wouldn't want to call it one way or the other at the moment.

IF the DUP do no worse than abstaining from the vote then he might have a chance.