[Lincoln61]

Originally Posted by Kendo67

Morrisons yesterday , still loads of customers AND staff (stacking shelves) not wearing masks.

KFC tonight , two of the six customers inside the shop not wearing masks and EVERY Delivero / Just Eat delivery person that came into the shop was not wearing a mask even though there was a notice on the door that "Face Coverings MUST be worn" and to cap it all off they got the bloody order wrong.

I have came the the conclusion that from now i am looking after number one (and family) as some people just dont give a toss for the people around them and no amount of telling them will change their selfishness so no point in trying , after all it is all that has been reported everywhere for the last five months.

K

I have been taking this approach since day 1. I can be as covid safe as I like, but you can't control the people or environment around you. Assume everyone is a dick and you will probably be ok.

[ZedsRedBaby]

No surprise that lots of people can't stick to the rules but I'm still wondering what's causing the rise. People have been completely lax about social distancing for months, pubs etc have been open since June. As far as I can see the only thing that's changed recently is kids going back to school. So closing pubs and restaurants, while allowing schools to stay open, is unlikely to have much effect.

[KRS_SN]

I am a GP and i have had weeks of 100s of negative results for my adult patients. schools reopen and ive had many positive results(mainly kids) but all kids have been well.
Whether these well kids with the virus will have passed on the virus to the vulnerable lot only time will tell.
From my POV many patients (such as young parents with transplant, ) who are shielding are sending their kids to school so their kids don't miss out on an education. I am worried about them.

[Armaan]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

I am a GP and i have had weeks of 100s of negative results for my adult patients. schools reopen and ive had many positive results(mainly kids) but all kids have been well.
Whether these well kids with the virus will have passed on the virus to the vulnerable lot only time will tell.
From my POV many patients (such as young parents with transplant, ) who are shielding are sending their kids to school so their kids don't miss out on an education. I am worried about them.

We have to remember that adults are teaching these kids and they are at risk of illness and spreading. At the best of times through winter schools are the worst places for flu and germs... It's going to be a turbulent few months.

Armaan

[robbiep]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

No surprise that lots of people can't stick to the rules but I'm still wondering what's causing the rise. People have been completely lax about social distancing for months, pubs etc have been open since June. As far as I can see the only thing that's changed recently is kids going back to school. So closing pubs and restaurants, while allowing schools to stay open, is unlikely to have much effect.

Pubs reopened in July, not June

Numbers have been steadily rising for quite a while now - in fact, going from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/, the 'new cases' chart, and clicking the box to show the 7 day average, that says cases were at their lowest on July 8th, and have been rising ever since.

The change has been in the rate - we were seeing an increase in recorded new cases of roughly 10% per week, that's gone up by 40-50% per week for the last 2 weeks.

It's a combination of factors. Maybe we can survive with either the pubs being open or schools being open, but not both.

Much as I'd like to say "Oh well, more home schooling for the kids then", that's not what's best for the future !

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by robbiep

Pubs reopened in July, not June

Numbers have been steadily rising for quite a while now - in fact, going from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/, the 'new cases' chart, and clicking the box to show the 7 day average, that says cases were at their lowest on July 8th, and have been rising ever since.

The change has been in the rate - we were seeing an increase in recorded new cases of roughly 10% per week, that's gone up by 40-50% per week for the last 2 weeks.

It's a combination of factors. Maybe we can survive with either the pubs being open or schools being open, but not both.

Much as I'd like to say "Oh well, more home schooling for the kids then", that's not what's best for the future !

I also think pubs and restaurants have had a big part to play in this.

Delayed uplift makes sense. Apart from the first weekend, the majority of pub goers started off in gardens and outside, not going in as much. As cases stayed low for a couple of weeks people started relaxing back into it and back to going inside.

And then the super spreader, eat out to help out, was launched by the government. Great economic idea, not so great in the middle of a pandemic. Maybe try it again when/if we get a vaccine!

[robbiep]

Originally Posted by Goneinsixtyseconds

I also think pubs and restaurants have had a big part to play in this.

Delayed uplift makes. Apart from the first weekend, the majority of pub goers started off in gardens and outside, not going in as much. As cases stated low for a couple of weeks people started relaxing back into it and back to going inside.

And then the super spreader, eat out to help out, was launched by the government. Great economic idea, not so great in the middle of a pandemic. Maybe try it again when/if we get a vaccine!

Agreed. A lot of people were initially very wary about going out - I think Eat out to help out was designed to 'reset' the public mindset on going out for meals, etc. And the nice weather meant people were far more distanced in beer gardens, etc. Now it's getting colder in the evenings that's not happening so much

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by robbiep

Pubs reopened in July, not June

Numbers have been steadily rising for quite a while now - in fact, going from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/, the 'new cases' chart, and clicking the box to show the 7 day average, that says cases were at their lowest on July 8th, and have been rising ever since.

The change has been in the rate - we were seeing an increase in recorded new cases of roughly 10% per week, that's gone up by 40-50% per week for the last 2 weeks.

It's a combination of factors. Maybe we can survive with either the pubs being open or schools being open, but not both.

Much as I'd like to say "Oh well, more home schooling for the kids then", that's not what's best for the future !

Mmm you're right. For some reason I was thinking mid-June (pretty sure that was on the cards at one point) but it was actually early July when the pubs opened. Even so that's well over two months ago and the big rises only started two or three weeks ago.

Either way, I doubt people sitting in (or outside) a pub for a couple of hours once a week are more likely to spread the virus than kids sat in a classroom for seven hours a day five days a week.

I get the fact you all want your kids back at school but to say pubs and restaurants are the problem seems like a bit of denial to me.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

Mmm you're right. For some reason I was thinking mid-June (pretty sure that was on the cards at one point) but it was actually early July when the pubs opened. Even so that's well over two months ago and the big rises only started two or three weeks ago.

Either way, I doubt people sitting in (or outside) a pub for a couple of hours once a week are more likely to spread the virus than kids sat in a classroom for seven hours a day five days a week.

I get the fact you all want your kids back at school but to say pubs and restaurants are the problem seems like a bit of denial to me.

I don’t think anyone is differentiating that way, I haven’t.

But surely it’s more important to keep schools open?

And it should be easier in theory to get adults in pubs to socially distance and act responsibly, than asking 5 year olds to do it.

Some pubs are doing a great job of it, and some are doing nothing, or the bare minimum. They’ll be the first to complain when they get new restrictions.

And the big upturn started during the first week of the school term. I don’t think it’s denial to say that at that point school wasn’t the cause.

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by Goneinsixtyseconds

I don’t think anyone is differentiating that way, I haven’t.

But surely it’s more important to keep schools open?

And it should be easier in theory to get adults in pubs to socially distance and act responsibly, than asking 5 year olds to do it.

Some pubs are doing a great job of it, and some are doing nothing, or the bare minimum. They’ll be the first to complain when they get new restrictions.

And the big upturn started during the first week of the school term. I don’t think it’s denial to say that at that point school wasn’t the cause.

Sorry, I didn't make it clear that I was referring to news that there may be renewed restrictions on pubs and restaurants while schools and workplaces are allowed to stay open.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54199642

I don't disagree that schooling is more important than having a beer (I tried to balance the two when I was a lad) but I doubt the measures being mooted will have much impact.

[Lincoln61]

What the F***!..... why has the COVID humour thread been closed, were people actually daring to have fun?!

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

Sorry, I didn't make it clear that I was referring to news that there may be renewed restrictions on pubs and restaurants while schools and workplaces are allowed to stay open.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54199642

I don't disagree that schooling is more important than having a beer (I tried to balance the two when I was a lad) but I doubt the measures being mooted will have much impact.

I think I agree with that if something has to happen.

Logically if we open up other areas like more schooling, colleges and workplaces, then others might have to be cut back to stop social interaction from increasing too much, especially in light of the big increases in cases we’re seeing now.

[JNW1]

I see there's speculation in the press that the government's considering a more wide ranging two-week lockdown with one of the two weeks coinciding with the school half-term to minimise the impact on education. Perhaps understandable but if true that means these measures (whatever they might be) are still several weeks away and, given the rise in cases and hospital admissions, that potentially feels like a risky delay; with hindsight there seems to be a consensus our initial lockdown didn't happen quite soon enough so I hope history isn't about to repeat itself......

[thescouselander]

Well, if we're going to keep this factual and objective might I commend the following data to you all rather than whatever nonsense the press can invent.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Somet things to consider:

Labelled as cases here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

we can see there is a rise in POSITIVE TEST RESULTS. Note though that a positive test result might not be an actual case because:

1) The may be false positives in there because it counts people with only 1 test result. Its said that the tests are only 99.6% accurate in specifitivity which means that for every 100,000 positive tests there could be around 400 false positives.

2) Presence of the virus doesn't always equal a case just as finding pollen in your nose doesnt mean you've got hay fever.

Nevertheless there does look to be a genuine rise as the increase has not gone up linearly in line with testing numbers with positive tests rising faster.



People in hospital https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

Flat for the moment - worth keeping an eye on.

Deaths: Also flat for the moment https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

Location of positive tests:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappvi...2c5f6912ed7076

The data is a bit old but "cases" look well dispursed with a few hotspots. Not a great deal happening in London which in interesting.


My view - I dont think we should panic just yet and talk of more lockdowns seems pretty unwarranted.

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by Goneinsixtyseconds

I think I agree with that if something has to happen.

Logically if we open up other areas like more schooling, colleges and workplaces, then others might have to be cut back to stop social interaction from increasing too much, especially in light of the big increases in cases we’re seeing now.

It's very difficult to answer that without stating a view that might be at odds with government policy so in view of this thread's amended title I'm not even going to bother.

It's been nice chatting chaps but I think I'm about done here.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Not sure if this table has been shown before. You can also click by map area as well.

Really useful, shows recent stats and trends for following weeks.

It shows Chesterfield still really low, and only 10% chance of becoming a hotspot in the next two weeks. Whereas Sheffield nearby has a 90% chance of becoming a hotspot in the same time period!

https://imperialcollegelondon.github...19local/#table

[sahajesh]

Originally Posted by Goneinsixtyseconds

Not sure if this table has been shown before. You can also click by map area as well.

Really useful, shows recent stats and trends for following weeks.

It shows Chesterfield still really low, and only 10% chance of becoming a hotspot in the next two weeks. Whereas Sheffield nearby has a 90% chance of becoming a hotspot in the same time period!

https://imperialcollegelondon.github...19local/#table

Sheffield has been an "area of concern" for some time now anyway

Having said that, there is a certain demographic that constantly ignores the rules, regularly has gatherings of 50-60 people on one street and fighting on said street.

[dazzapb]

I must say the well healed folk of south west London (Richmond borough) of which I am not one have impressed me. Supermarket shops 100% mask wearing mind you that's Waitrose and Sainsbury's. Tesco about 98% and that's an extra store
Infection rate is going down. Neighbouring Hounslow is on the up

Having said that my son stated school and I know it's all outside contact but parents are so so close it does worry me.

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by thescouselander

My view - I dont think we should panic just yet and talk of more lockdowns seems pretty unwarranted.

Which is fair enough but one man's panic is another man's proactive and one man's no need to worry is another man's complacency!

As we saw earlier in the year, given the exponential way in which cases rise, sitting back and delaying for only a few days can make the situation much worse in terms of infections, hospitalisations and (ultimately) deaths. Like most people, by choice I certainly wouldn't want another lockdown but if experts can see we'll have a problem that's bad enough to warrant one by mid to late October I'm not sure I see the sense in delaying until then - feels like we're in danger of repeating exactly the same mistake we made in March (a mistake which left us with the highest level of Covid deaths in Europe).

[robbiep]

Originally Posted by thescouselander

My view - I dont think we should panic just yet and talk of more lockdowns seems pretty unwarranted.

'Panic' is one thing. But you also have to remember this has a 3-5 day incubation period. So the people who are starting to feel ill now are those who were infected the first part of this week - and they've been infecting people yesterday and today. And those people who they've infected will start infecting people on Monday / Tuesday, before they start being ill.

It's an exponential curve. And we're in it, and it's rocketing right now.

Restrictions will be coming in relatively soon I think - pubs, restaurants being closed again would be a prime candidate IMO.

[DougMcL]

Belfast is already under further restrictions. All of the South Belfast postcodes have 100 per 100,000 positive tests in the last week. First patient with proven Covid19 due to be admitted into ICU as I was leaving last night, having just ventilated a patient who looked suspicious (demographic 50, high BMI, male and in respiratory failure of unknown origin). There is talk of reopening the Mater Infirmorum hospital hospital which was originally the Covid hospital for Belfast in March. Here we go again.

Just out of interest, Belfast being the biggest city in Northern Ireland has five large hospitals, all with their own regional specialities, four of them with ICU beds. During the last wave pretty much all elective specialities stopped with the regional cancer centre being turned into the Nightingale hospital. Go figure.

[thescouselander]

Originally Posted by robbiep

'Panic' is one thing. But you also have to remember this has a 3-5 day incubation period. So the people who are starting to feel ill now are those who were infected the first part of this week - and they've been infecting people yesterday and today. And those people who they've infected will start infecting people on Monday / Tuesday, before they start being ill.

It's an exponential curve. And we're in it, and it's rocketing right now.

Restrictions will be coming in relatively soon I think - pubs, restaurants being closed again would be a prime candidate IMO.

Everyone talks about an exponential growth and if that were true it would be scary - there are no exponential curves in the data from the previous wave though.

Given there was no effective testing we'd need to go on deaths - looking at the profile of the death numbers it follows a sigmoid curve rather than an exponential one - specifically it follows a Gompertz curve. What this means is instead of deaths rising exponentially they actually started up on a very steep curve whos growth rate was decaying right from the start. Heres a curve I fitted earlier - day 1 is 2nd March 2020. Actually data from most countries does the same regardless of containment measures.


Also if we make some assumptions about the case fatality rate, say 0.5% to pick something out of the air, that could mean there were in excess of 8 million infections last time. The numbers we're seeing now are less than a rounding error.