[DougMcL]

Here is a very interesting statistics thread on twitter with easy to follow charts

[sahajesh]

Agree with you JNW1 - we haven't seen a consistent message from pandemic experts/epidemiologists and often the forecasts/advice from those differs from official statements.

Clearly not all epidemiology experts think the same and the media is free to choose to report the ones that fit their headline du jour.

[MY340i]

if we're not locking down this week, then it seems very much like the pandemic is behind us. finally on the route for returning to normality

[sahajesh]

Originally Posted by MY340i

if we're not locking down this week, then it seems very much like the pandemic is behind us. finally on the route for returning to normality

No new restrictions this week, another review due later in Jan.

We still have to cope with the indirect effects of a high number of cases i.e. staff absences across multiple sectors.

Imagine a big chunk of the population getting the flu at the same time, but this time actually staying at home.

[JR1664]

Originally Posted by sahajesh

No new restrictions this week, another review due later in Jan.

We still have to cope with the indirect effects of a high number of cases i.e. staff absences across multiple sectors.

Imagine a big chunk of the population getting the flu at the same time, but this time actually staying at home.

The problem is many aren't even suffering flu like symptoms. Staff absence is indeed the major issue here as you state.

My local 700 bed hospital had only 16 covid patients in it a few days back and only 1 in ICU. However numerous staff were isolating.

I think (or hope) this is a period of transition with a brighter light at the end of the tunnel.

[CajunBMW]

The pandemic phase is likely coming to an end. This is certainly my perspective, but it is based on my training and the work of many others in the field. Many of these comments are echoed in news articles as well. The omicron variant may very well be that push. By infecting everyone and burning brightly very quickly, it may end up being the best thing in the sense that we really may get everyone infected or vaccinated now, which will make most infections in the future milder and less worrisome.

When the pandemic phase per se ends and the endemic phase begins is really a matter of perspective. That is, when will the WHO officially end what they are calling this pandemic; that is unknown, but perhaps practically by summer that will be the case. This virus is now with us most likely for life. I know I have said that many times.

The best case scenario is that omicron or what ever it will become when the next variant comes out, will stay this mild and the virus will become just another circulating virus with a flu like case fatality index. That is, it becomes a virus that we worry about, but go about our day doing our thing, what ever that is without worry of disruptions because of the virus. History is on our side for this point, as the 4 benign coronaviruses all did this. How long it takes to truly become nothing more than an occasional nuisance is unknown.

The only caveat to this whole thing is that like the flu, the virus changes over time and there are milder variants and worse variants that emerge over time. There can even be the emergence of pandemic strains or variants again. How this happens is known, but when or what a new variant will look like is unknown. Could it continue to become milder and milder yes, but could it change because it gets into a mouse, a cat, a bird, etc and come back as a bad a$$ virus, yes. This last part as well as when SARS-CoV3 arrives is what keeps those in the field awake at night.

Hopefully all of this will provide folks with a better appreciation for public health and surveillance. Hopefully it also shows why greater support is needed for affordable healthcare and one that reaches the many rural communities that really lack access to healthcare. I guess it also teaches us how global the world really is and how quickly these agents can spread.

Happy new year.

[sahajesh]

Great post CajunBMW - let's hope we learn from this globally.

As I recall, SARS and MERS were localised and handled as such, but this one is different.

One Q - does the fact that large swathes of the world don't have vaccines yet mean that new variants are more likely to pop up in those places? Like the very new variant from Cameroon, for example?

If so, then Govts need to help get vaccines everywhere.

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by sahajesh

Great post CajunBMW - let's hope we learn from this globally.

As I recall, SARS and MERS were localised and handled as such, but this one is different.

One Q - does the fact that large swathes of the world don't have vaccines yet mean that new variants are more likely to pop up in those places? Like the very new variant from Cameroon, for example?

If so, then Govts need to help get vaccines everywhere.

"As I recall, SARS and MERS were localised and handled as such, but this one is different."



Yes. They are related. SARSCOV1 was more deadly with ~10% of infections being fatal, but it really only became infectious when symptoms appeared. Thus authorities could do a lockdown effectively and targeted. The spread was bigger than people realize and the outbreak although localized really was around 2 years. MERS remains a threat but is hard to get, but very bad with around a 30% case fatality rate.



"One Q - does the fact that large swathes of the world don't have vaccines yet mean that new variants are more likely to pop up in those places? Like the very new variant from Cameroon, for example?"

The vaccine issue could be of serious concern. But if omicron is really infecting everyone then the vaccine issue may be lessened. But you have a good point. That anywhere that we see unchecked replication means that a variant could arise. More importantly as these variant arise and it change species we keep allowing the virus to change. As I pointed out above, one hopes it stays very infectious and very mild, but that can change. This point about vaccination is why we (collectively) need to support vaccinations around the world.

[TodmordenLad]

A voice of reason. Dr Tedros, DG of the WHO, in mid-Dec on why vaccinations on their own are not enough.

https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/...UL7Utkhyg&s=08

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by TodmordenLad

A voice of reason. Dr Tedros, DG of the WHO, in mid-Dec on why vaccinations on their own are not enough.

https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/...tkhyg&s=08

Originally Posted by TodmordenLad

A voice of reason. Dr Tedros, DG of the WHO, in mid-Dec on why vaccinations on their own are not enough.

https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/...tkhyg&s=08

Agreed!!!! Thanks for sharing.


Those comments of needing multiple approaches is certainly wise and overall has been at least in my experience the comments that we have heard from the good sources throughout the pandemic. That messaging has been very consistent.

Overall, we (collectively all of us) need to get community spread around the world to low levels through these approaches. We obviously have to learn to live with the virus as many have noted previously. It will be easier and safer to do that if community spread is low.

The virus has overall shown a very consistent pattern of waves of infection every few months. This cycle needs to be stopped or lessened or we will or could have these outbreaks over and over again. No one wants that and as noted, maybe the virus just gets milder and milder and this will not be an issue, but………if CoVs and influenza have taught us anything, it is they can mutate or change and get worse very quickly and unfortunately unexpectedly.

Thanks again.

[CajunBMW]

I have a question for the various folks working in the hospital.

We are seeing less covid pneumonia in our hospitals across the state, so those admitted because of covid is less, which is good. But we are seeing a tremendous burden of covid associated disease in manner similar to the flu. So those with co-morbid risk factors are being hospitalized because covid has pushed them over the edge. So folks with chronic cardiovascular disease or other chronic diseases are now coming to the hospital with covid. Just like the flu, the viral infection, which is active, has caused them to be hospitalized. Luckily they don't require ventilation but are very sick and have an increased risk of death. I'm just wonder if that is what you guys are seeing now or did see in the UK.

[SimonBMW1]

time to start modelling on this for the scientist

https://news.sky.com/story/bird-flu-...firms-12510294

[HighlandPete]

^^^ add in some current news detail on Long Covid...

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...?ocid=msedgntp

[HighlandPete]

Deltacron hybrid variant????

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...edgdhp&pc=U531

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by HighlandPete

Deltacron hybrid variant????

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...edgdhp&pc=U531

Report in The Telegraph this morning says this 'new variant" is most likely the result of contamination in a Cyprus laboratory - let's hope that's the case!

[gangzoom]

Originally Posted by CajunBMW

I'm just wonder if that is what you guys are seeing now or did see in the UK.

Loads of the stuff around, vaccine doing it job, we cover a population area of over 1 million, currently less than a dozen needing high level oxygen support. Nothing close to what 12 months ago was like .

Staffing also hasn't been as bad as feared (so far), most clinical staff am 100% sure have been exposed to the virus lots of time in the last 12 months regardless of negative test status, add in triple vaccinations it all seem OK at present.

Hospitals all over the country are stuffed full though, but sadly that the 'normal' winter in England when we have a peak in respiratory infections in winter.

[CajunBMW]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Report in The Telegraph this morning says this 'new variant" is most likely the result of contamination in a Cyprus laboratory - let's hope that's the case!

Originally Posted by JNW1

Report in The Telegraph this morning says this 'new variant" is most likely the result of contamination in a Cyprus laboratory - let's hope that's the case!

It very well may be due to sloppy techniques. But these viruses can recombine when a person is infected with both at the same time. This is a common feature of a number of these viruses. My point is only that it is possible for someone infected with both delta and omicron to get a new virus that is a mixture of both.

Edit: there are many reports that this virus is a result of a lab error. These things happen with this technology. But, because recombination can happen, the premise is plausible. I suspect the back and forth of whether this is real will continue for sometime. There will be other labs running samples as this now has peoples attention.

[Ennoch]

Pretty much what I've been saying throughout (a friend's wife is quoted in it);

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...bc6089d81f4248

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by Ennoch

Pretty much what I've been saying throughout (a friend's wife is quoted in it);

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...bc6089d81f4248

Despite an over-riding desire to protect the NHS, I think many of us have been long concerned about the consequential effects of restrictions - and especially lockdowns - and the article you've linked just illustrates one of the problems we're seeing.

Anyway, sounds like we're back to Plan A in England from next week with the decision to resist the calls to go beyond Plan B a few weeks ago thankfully looking vindicated. Hopefully we can progress to a stage where covid becomes "only" endemic by the end of the year although I suppose that will depend on whether further variants emerge.....

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by JNW1

Despite an over-riding desire to protect the NHS, I think many of us have been long concerned about the consequential effects of restrictions - and especially lockdowns - and the article you've linked just illustrates one of the problems we're seeing.

Anyway, sounds like we're back to Plan A in England from next week with the decision to resist the calls to go beyond Plan B a few weeks ago thankfully looking vindicated. Hopefully we can progress to a stage where covid becomes "only" endemic by the end of the year although I suppose that will depend on whether further variants emerge.....

To be fair, the reasons why we resisted the requests to move beyond plan B are probably more linked to BoJos lack of authority these days than any scientific reasoning.

And the country will now make its own decisions as the "leadership" have proven absolutely incapable of doing just that....

[JNW1]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

To be fair, the reasons why we resisted the requests to move beyond plan B are probably more linked to BoJos lack of authority these days than any scientific reasoning.

And the country will now make its own decisions as the "leadership" have proven absolutely incapable of doing just that....

To be honest I think BoJo could have gone either way with additional restrictions. Going beyond Plan B would certainly have annoyed some in his own party - who would have voted against - but generally the opposition parties were encouraging the government to go further so he'd have got additional measures through if he'd wanted to. So to give him the benefit of the doubt I think he probably did make the decision based on a judgement of which of the conflicting science opinions was more likely to be correct rather than the politics.

But you're right in terms of how easy it will be to sell future restrictions to the public should they become necessary. You'd like to think most will adopt a sensible approach based on the evidence put in front of them but "don't do as I do, do as I say" is never a good message and people will now understandably be more questioning of the rules when those who make them don't always seem inclined to follow them....

[TodmordenLad]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

To be fair, the reasons why we resisted the requests to move beyond plan B are probably more linked to BoJos lack of authority these days than any scientific reasoning.

And the country will now make its own decisions as the "leadership" have proven absolutely incapable of doing just that....

There's not a lot of "following the science" going on in Johnson's decision to lift health protection measures. Infection case rates are twice what they were when Plan B was introduced and there are around 2.5x as many people in hospital with C19. It was politically motivated. Watching his desperate behaviour over the past few weeks, it comes as no surprise.