[ZedsRedBaby]

Being a bit old and forgetful, I have a recurring weekly reminder on my phone telling me to book parking at the railway station for the coming week. For the last 4 weeks, I've just ticked it and not actually booked any parking.

So, how many more times will I tick it before I actually need to get the train to work?

Taking a cue from Tengocity (who cleverly avoided paying out by telling us all the answer to his conundrum ) I will donate £10 to the winner's charity of choice. In the event of a draw, names will go in a hat. If I don't make it, could someone please give a tenner to the British Heart Foundation in my memory. Thank you.

[isleaiw1]

Depending on your job / industry it is likely to vary if its a phased lockdown but I will say 6 weeks and you buy next one for a 4 day week starting on day after the late May bank holiday....

If I dont make it British Heart Foundation for me too...

[RobUK]

Hmmm very difficult one to judge with so many variables, but I'll guess start of August. That said, without a vaccine, Covid-19 busting drugs or mass testing on a scale we've never seen, I don't know how we'll get back to something approaching normal.

If I don't make it, Mind for me.

[Lincoln61]

Optimistically i will say beginning of June.

[JustChris]

4 more ticks

[ZedsRedBaby]

I'm loving the optimism here but I'm not sure I share it. I won't be getting back on a train, never mind the tube, until this thing has died out or I have compelling evidence of immunity.

On the latter point I'm quitely hopeful that I had a mild dose a couple of weeks ago but whether I did and whether that equates to long term protection remains to be seen.

[JustChris]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

I'm loving the optimism here but I'm not sure I share it. I won't be getting back on a train, never mind the tube, until this thing has died out or I have compelling evidence of immunity.

On the latter point I'm quitely hopeful that I had a mild dose a couple of weeks ago but whether I did and whether that equates to long term protection remains to be seen.

Wait a minute, this was not disclosed earlier!

I had based my 4 tick estimate on your cavalier approach to life owning a Z4...and a red one too. Colour is passion.

We now see you are Risk Averse.

I'll say 8 more ticks then.

[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

I'm loving the optimism here but I'm not sure I share it. I won't be getting back on a train, never mind the tube, until this thing has died out or I have compelling evidence of immunity.

On the latter point I'm quitely hopeful that I had a mild dose a couple of weeks ago but whether I did and whether that equates to long term protection remains to be seen.

Will that be an option once govt remove lockdown, stop paying workers to be furloughed, will you get to just decide whether you will go in or not?

I reckon I will be in last week in May - on a train, but no parking as light nights mean I can walk to station and save the £30 a week.... and hopefully lose some of lockdown lard too!

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

Will that be an option once govt remove lockdown, stop paying workers to be furloughed, will you get to just decide whether you will go in or not?

Possibly not but I'm working from home and IMHO being far more effective than when I spend 4 hours a day commuting. Given that my current employer's landlord has given notice on their very expensive central London offices, I'm hoping they might decide they don't really need to find new ones.

Originally Posted by isleaiw1

I reckon I will be in last week in May - on a train, but no parking as light nights mean I can walk to station and save the £30 a week.... and hopefully lose some of lockdown lard too!

A couple of weeks ago I unexpectedly lost just over half a stone between weekly weigh-ins. Given that I was off my food for a couple of days and spent one night sweating profusely and shaking uncontrollably, that's why I'm hoping I might have had the bug. Also bearing in mind that up until a few days before I had been on the train and tube every weekday so plenty of opportunity for exposure.

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by JustChris

Wait a minute, this was not disclosed earlier!

I had based my 4 tick estimate on your cavalier approach to life owning a Z4...and a red one too. Colour is passion.

We now see you are Risk Averse.

I'll say 8 more ticks then.

I dwive it vewy vewy carefully.

[RobUK]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

I'm loving the optimism here but I'm not sure I share it. I won't be getting back on a train, never mind the tube, until this thing has died out or I have compelling evidence of immunity.

On the latter point I'm quitely hopeful that I had a mild dose a couple of weeks ago but whether I did and whether that equates to long term protection remains to be seen.

Good man, August starting to look more reasonable

(much as I want this whole thing to be over ASAP!)

[R0B]

4 weeks.

[teaston]

Originally Posted by RobUK

Hmmm very difficult one to judge with so many variables, but I'll guess start of August. That said, without a vaccine, Covid-19 busting drugs or mass testing on a scale we've never seen, I don't know how we'll get back to something approaching normal.

If I don't make it, Mind for me.

August!? I hope you’re joking, there’ll be nothing left for us to come back to by then!! There is no way the lockdown will, or can, last until then.

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by teaston

August!? I hope you’re joking, there’ll be nothing left for us to come back to by then!! There is no way the lockdown will, or can, last until then.

That's a bit like someone in October 1940 saying "Right, I've done three weeks of blackout, fuck this for a game of soldiers".

I think we're in this for the long haul. There's not much point saving the economy if there's no one around to be part of it.

[teaston]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

That's a bit like someone in October 1940 saying "Right, I've done three weeks of blackout, fuck this for a game of soldiers".

I think we're in this for the long haul. There's not much point saving the economy if there's no one around to be part of it.

I’m not sure if you have been following this virus but the death ratio is less than 1%, so no matter what happens, over 99% will survive. Obviously every life lost is tragic, but if there’s nothing left for the surviving 99+% to live for then what is the point of keeping the lockdown going?

Not to mention the massive toll on the population’s mental health, suicides, increase in social deprivation, crippling national debt etc. etc.

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by teaston

I'm not sure if you have been following this virus but the death ratio is less than 1%, so no matter what happens, over 99% will survive. Obviously every life lost is tragic, but if there's nothing left for the surviving 99+% to live for then what is the point of keeping the lockdown going?

Not to mention the massive toll on the population's mental health, suicides, increase in social deprivation, crippling national debt etc. etc.

No I've been completely ignoring it despite being paid to assess the potential economic impact. I probably haven't been paying attention, but I think I've heard:

- It's far more infectious than anything else we've seen so far
- The mortality rate is much higher than any other respiratory virus we know of
- There is currently no vaccine, no cure and no effective mitigation other than, in some cases, ventilation
- The only effective measure seen anywhere in the world is social separation
- Left unchecked it could quite easily wipe out a substantial proportion of the global population

But do please share your expertise.

[teaston]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

No I've been completely ignoring it despite being paid to assess the potential economic impact. I probably haven't been paying attention, but I think I've heard:

- It's far more infectious than anything else we've seen so far
- The mortality rate is much higher than any other respiratory virus we know of
- There is currently no vaccine, no cure and no effective mitigation other than, in some cases, ventilation
- The only effective measure seen anywhere in the world is social separation
- Left unchecked it could quite easily wipe out a substantial proportion of the global population

But do please share your expertise.

In your previous post you said “if no one’s around”, so please explain how coronavirus could cause “no one” to be around?!

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by teaston

In your previous post you said "if no one's around", so please explain how coronavirus could cause "no one" to be around?!

I think it's pretty clear I was using the term figuratively. In the absence of any form of protective measures, and so far the only one we have is social separation, there will be a substantial reduction in world population. If you think it's less than 1% you are frankly deluded. Spanish Flu is generally accepted as having killed up to 5% of the world's population and there are many reasons to believe that COVID-19 could be much worse, not least because it's more contagious, it's more deadly, international travel is more widespread and the world's population is around 4 times more dense than it was 100 years ago. So let's say 5 to 10% if we're lucky. That in itself would have massive economic consequences.

The challenge is to weigh that up against the potential impact of the protective measures, which everyone understands may in themselves be very significant. As I've said before, I'd rather my potentially life-saving heart surgery wasn't on hold but I'm in no rush to die of COVID.

There are no easy answers, but I'm afraid we can't just hold our breath, count to ten and then go back to normal.

[teaston]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

I think it's pretty clear I was using the term figuratively. In the absence of any form of protective measures, and so far the only one we have is social separation, there will be a substantial reduction in world population. If you think it's less than 1% you are frankly deluded. Spanish Flu is generally accepted as having killed up to 5% of the world's population and there are many reasons to believe that COVID-19 could be much worse, not least because it's more contagious, it's more deadly, international travel is more widespread and the world's population is around 4 times more dense than it was 100 years ago. So let's say 5 to 10% if we're lucky. That in itself would have massive economic consequences.

The challenge is to weigh that up against the potential impact of the protective measures, which everyone understands may in themselves be very significant. As I've said before, I'd rather my potentially life-saving heart surgery wasn't on hold but I'm in no rush to die of COVID.

There are no easy answers, but I'm afraid we can't just hold our breath, count to ten and then go back to normal.

It is less than 1%, no doubt whatsoever. UK confirmed cases to deaths is around 10%, but as we all know there's barely anyone being tested, so the actual number of cases is without doubt at least 10 times higher than our official confirmed cases.

[Sennen]

Originally Posted by teaston

It is less than 1%, no doubt whatsoever. UK confirmed cases to deaths is around 10%, but as we all know there's barely anyone being tested, so the actual number of cases is without doubt at least 10 times higher than our official confirmed cases.

I agree Teaston I will be very surprised if the death rate is above 1%, it certainly isn't 5 to 10%.

I think we have to remember there are probably many thousands if not many millions that have had this virus in the UK alone and that imo will bring the death rate well below 1% of those infected.

Even so 1 death is not good if it happens to be a loved one so we must put life before our ability after this is all over to buy another new shiny car or watch.

[ZedsRedBaby]

Originally Posted by Sennen

I agree Teaston I will be very surprised if the death rate is above 1%, it certainly isn't 5 to 10%.

I think we have to remember there are probably many thousands if not many millions that have had this virus in the UK alone and that imo will bring the death rate well below 1% of those infected.

Even so 1 death is not good if it happens to be a loved one so we must put life before our ability after this is all over to buy another new shiny car or watch.

Well I sincerely hope you're both right but even Germany is above 1% and they've tested loads of people. They also implemented social distancing far sooner than other countries.

Anyway, if you want to be in with a chance of winning the star prize, you have to answer the question.

So, how many weeks do you think before I need to book my parking?

[Sennen]

Originally Posted by ZedsRedBaby

Well I sincerely hope you're both right but even Germany is above 1% and they've tested loads of people. They also implemented social distancing far sooner than other countries.

Anyway, if you want to be in with a chance of winning the star prize, you have to answer the question.

So, how many weeks do you think before I need to book my parking?

Even the mighty Germanic machine can't test everyone yet!!!

How long till the majority can go back to work is a hard one. I suspect mid May but I think we will be on a similar lock down a month after that and the cycle will continue until we have a vaccine.

As I have said before I do not think life will return to anywhere near normal much before 2022. But my guess is as useless as anyone else's I fear.